Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: Crypto Regulatory Game, Market Winter Is Coming?
A. Market View
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Currency liquidity has tightened. The market expects the Fed to opt to skip a rate hike at its June meeting, but leans toward a July hike based on upcoming inflation data. At the same time, by the end of 2023, the U.S. government will need to borrow 1.1 trillion U.S. dollars in short-term treasury bills, and a net issuance of 850 billion U.S. dollars in treasury bills will be issued in the next 4 months. The issuance of U.S. treasury bonds will see the largest increase in history except for the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 new crown pandemic . The sheer size of the new issuance could push up yields on government bonds, sucking cash out of bank deposits. Not afraid of the weekly rebound of the U.S. dollar index, the U.S. stock Nasdaq index continued to hit new highs. But the performance of the encrypted market may more follow the market liquidity.
Second, the whole market
The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:
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Second, the whole market
The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:
VELO: It is the head dex exchange on the OP chain, adopting the ve 33 model. The recent v2 upgrade introduced the Uniswap module. At the same time, the OP upgraded Bedrock on June 6, reducing the gas fee by 40%.
3. BTC market
1) Data on the chain
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3. BTC market
Long-term BTC holders continue to hold diamond hands. In May, more BTC and ETH moved towards long-term holdings, and the short-term turnover rate of BTC also showed a significant weakening trend. The BTC held for 6-12 months is the largest increase in the month. This part of the chips has experienced the LUNA and FTX incidents in succession, and the number of chips that may lose money may not be small, but this part of the users did not choose to reduce their holdings and leave the market. Instead, they continue to hold for a longer period of time, and most of them should be investors with little financial pressure.
2) Futures market
The overall stable currency continues to decline, especially the accelerated departure of US funds, which gradually weakens the purchasing power of the market. Among them, the scale of the stablecoin USDT hit a record high, and its market share rose from last year's low of 47% to 66%. With U.S. interest rates now over 5%, interest-free stablecoins have become less attractive, especially for investors with access to U.S. capital markets.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. MVRV fell below the key level 1 and holders were overall in the red. The current indicator is 0.45, entering the recovery phase.
Futures funding rate: The rate is neutral this week, and the market sentiment is stable. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, and the long leverage is more, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate is -0.1-0%, and the short leverage is more, which is the short-term bottom of the market.
3) Spot market
Futures long-short ratio: 1.8. Retail investors are in a strong mood to buy bottoms. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator, below 0.7 is more panic, and above 2.0 is more greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.
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1. The total lock-up volume of the public chain
2. Proportion of TVL of each public chain
1. The total lock-up volume of the public chain
6) Arbitrum lock-up volume
3. The lock-up volume of each chain agreement
1) ETH locked position situation
2) BSC locked position situation
3) Tron lock-up volume
4) Avalanche lock-up volume
5) Polygon lock-up volume
6) Arbitrum lock-up volume
7) Optimism lock-up volume
4. History of ETH Gas fee
7) Optimism lock-up volume
2) NFT market conditions:
5. Changes in NFT market data
1) NFT-500 index:
2) NFT market conditions:
3) NFT trading market share:
4) Analysis of NFT buyers:
5) Number of active projects:
3) NFT trading market share:
4) Analysis of NFT buyers:
5) Number of active projects:
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6. The latest financing situation of the project
About Foresight Ventures
Foresight Ventures bets on the innovation of cryptocurrency in the next few decades. It manages multiple funds: VC fund, secondary active management fund, multi-strategy FOF, special purpose S fund "Foresight Secondary Fund l", with a total asset management scale of more than 4 One hundred million U.S. dollars. Foresight Ventures adheres to the concept of "Unique, Independent, Aggressive, Long-term" and provides extensive support for projects through strong ecological forces. Its team comes from senior personnel from top financial and technology companies including Sequoia China, CICC, Google, Bitmain, etc.
6. The latest financing situation of the project
