SignalPlus Macro Research Report 20230607: BTC rebounded strongly, US technology ETFs are favored
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Dear friends, welcome to the SignalPlus macro research report. SignalPlus macro research reports update macro market information for you every day, and share our observations and opinions on macro trends. Welcome to track and subscribe, and follow the latest market trends with us.
Following the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) plan to prosecute BUSD issuer Paxos on February 13, the SEC formally charged An and CZ for operating unlicensed businesses, mismanaging funds, and allegedly operating "fraudulent network" coins in the early hours of yesterday. The news caused the price of BNB to drop by 8.06% within four hours, and also hit the prices of BTC and ETH by 4.60% and 3.25% respectively. With the slump of cryptocurrencies and the sudden increase in real volatility, BTC/ETH 1 m 25 DSkew dive maintained and remained in a relatively low range (-2% /-3.5%) in the past month. Four hours after the news was released, the market gradually calmed down, and the IV, which was driven by liquidity and market panic, rose sharply, and then retreated step by step. As of now (20:00 UTC+8), the 24-hour trading volume of BTC options in the entire market has reached 1.24 B, more than double the trading volume of the same period the previous day. BTC's short-term 1 w IV rose 7.8% to 39.53%, while the long-term 3 mIV fell (-0.75% to 40.06%). ETH is in a similar trend, with 1 w IV up 5.23% to 38.35%, with implied volatility still not out of the downtrend, remaining near three-month lows.
Data source: Deribit
Yesterday, about 50,000 ETH 28 JU L2 3 – 1900-C were actively traded by the seller in bulk, and there were also a large number of diagonal bullish spreads at the end of June vs. forwards. It can also be seen in BTC A lot is concentrated in June and late July bid spreads, calendar spreads, and diagonal call spreads.
Data source: Deribit
Notable events next week:
Notable events next week:
US PPI (Wednesday 20:30, UTC+8),
FOMC (Thursday 02:00, UTC+8)
FOMC (Thursday 02:00, UTC+8)U.S. markets were very quiet yesterday with no data releases and a silent period from the Fed, compared with the previous month, volume was only around 65% of average, with most asset classes largely unchanged. As the Treasury continues to expand Treasury bill issuance (TGA capital increase), plusPimco's Clarida (former Fed vice chair) says "one or two hikes are likely in this cycle"
, the 2/10 s yield curve flattened to a 3-month low as we head into next week's FOMC meeting.On the equity market front, a short squeeze in the most shorted stocks (+4%) and banks (SPX's best performing sector of the day) continued to plague traders in this illiquid market, while year-to-date retail-preferred stock performance consistently outperformed all other strategies,。
Weekly inflows into U.S. tech ETFs continue to rise verticallyMeanwhile, the ideal narrative of a soft landing continues, with moderating inflation, strong employment data and tail risks such as the debt ceiling and contagion from the regional banking crisis fading away.Wall Street investment banks begin to cut recession forecasts;also,, the weakest link appears to be in manufacturing, which has been declining in importance to the U.S. economy in recent years.
in addition,in addition,Reduced labor shortages and favorable base effects are expected to materialize in the second half of the year, helping to moderate inflationary pressures
, thus limiting the rise in interest rates and allowing the tail probability of rate cuts to exist.3-month Treasury bill yield tops S&P 500 for first time since 2000
, making cash and deposits a viable asset class again, and demand for fixed income should also remain strong going forward.On the cryptocurrency front, the U.S. movement to regulate digital assets continues,SEC Charges Coinbase With Securities Law Violations A Day After Taking Action Against Binance, the SEC alleges that Coinbase has been operating as an unregistered broker through its trading platform, prime brokerage, and crypto wallet services since at least 2019, while Coinbase has failed to implement important protections for investors, including rules to prevent fraud and manipulation, appropriate Disclosure, measures to prevent conflicts of interest, and routine inspections by the SEC. Coinbase has always claimed to be actively communicating with the US SEC on the registration process, but the regulatory agency has never given clear guidelines for the registration process. Ironically,April 2021 is also the same SEC that personally approved Coinbase's IPO application
, it is reasonable to speculate that these allegations should have been covered and reached a consensus during the public listing process.While the allegations against Binance are serious and could cause further contagion, theCryptocurrency prices rebounded strongly in the past 24 hours
. After the long crypto winter, most of the institutional “tourists” have left the space, and the remaining players are likely more devoted believers and therefore less susceptible to these TradFi allegations.Furthermore, as Bitcoin and cryptoassets continue to fall out of the mainstream, theyCorrelations with other TradFi asset classes have also fallen and are returning to their essence, which is a truly uncorrelated asset away from the daily macro noise
, and this trend is expected to continue this year.
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