Data Interpretation of USDT's Current Status: This year's market value has risen by more than 25%, but active users have dropped significantly
Original Author: Carol
Recently, the market value of USDT has continued to rise and has once again exceeded $83 billion, which is very close to the historical high set in early May 2022. Generally speaking, the rise in the market value of USDT, the stablecoin with the largest market share, is generally regarded as the "catalyst" of the bull market. However, in the process of USDT market value rising this time, the market conditions did not rise simultaneously, and mainstream assets such as BTC are still in the stage of sideways adjustment.
So, where did the newly issued USDT go? How much has flowed to the trading market? PAData comprehensively analyzed USDT's market value changes, on-chain data and transaction data and found that:
As of June 3, the total market value of stablecoins was approximately US$129.216 billion, a decrease of approximately 0.87% in the last month, and a decrease of approximately 6.22% this year.
The current largest market value is USDT, which is about 83.212 billion US dollars, accounting for about 64.40% of the total market value, which is nearly three times that of USDC. Its market value has risen by 1.41% in the last month, and has risen by 25.63% this year, which is close to the highest point in history.
This year, the market value of TRC-20 USDT has increased by 34.90%, and the market value of ERC-20 USDT has increased by 19.23%. However, the growth trend of TRC-20 USDT is more significant, the increment is larger, and the growth rate is faster. At present, its market value accounts for 54.07% of the USDT market value.
Although the market value of USDT has returned to near the high point in early May 2022, behind this lies a change in the internal structure of USDT, and TRC-20 USDT has become increasingly dominant. This change in composition will play an important role in understanding the market reaction caused by changes in USDT market value, because there are certain differences in the application scenarios of TRC-20 USDT and ERC-20 USDT.
Since the beginning of this year, the daily on-chain transaction volume of TRC-20 USDT has shown a significant growth trend, with an increase of about 71.76% within the year, while the daily on-chain transaction volume of ERC-20 USDT has shown a slight downward trend, with a drop of about 0.25%. The average daily on-chain transaction volume of the two USDTs is approximately 6.917 billion USDT.
Currently, the stock of ERC-20 USDT in exchanges is about 9.29 billion USDT, the highest in the year. However, its daily trading volume has shown a significant shrinking trend this year. The average daily trading volume this month was only 36.7 million USDT, a decrease of 11.35% from May.
The current ratio of ERC-20 USDT locked in smart contracts to its circulation is about 15.03%, which is equivalent to the level at the end of July 2022, which is lower than the proportion when the market value was similar in early May 2022 (the proportion was about is 20%). That is to say, the market value of the same size, the current USDT scale in DeFi is likely to be not as good as before.
The current number of independent active addresses on the ERC-20 USDT chain is about 56,800, which is lower than the daily average number of independent active addresses of 87,000 this year, and the overall trend is downward, which means that the scale of active users of USDT is likely to decrease.
The total market value of USDT has exceeded 83.2 billion US dollars, and the market value of TRC-20 USDT has increased by about 35% this year
As of June 3, the total market capitalization of stablecoins was approximately $129.216 billion. From the composition point of view, the current largest market value is USDT, which is about 83.212 billion US dollars, accounting for about 64.40% of the total market value. USDC has not improved significantly after the liquidity crisis in March. The current market value is about 28.77 billion US dollars, accounting for about 22.26% of the total market value, and about 1/3 of the USDT market value. In addition, although the market caps of BUSD, DAI, TUSD, USDP, and FRAX are all above $1 billion, there are still magnitude differences compared to the market caps of USDT and USDC. It can be said that USDT is still the absolute "leader" among stablecoins.
From the perspective of the trend, the total market value of stablecoins has dropped slightly by 0.87% from the US$130.363 billion one month ago, and by 6.22% from the US$137.792 billion at the beginning of this year. The overall trend is downward. Moreover, the vast majority of stablecoins, such as USDC, BUSD, DAI, etc., follow the general trend, and their market value has declined to varying degrees in the past month and this year.
Among the stablecoins with large market capitalization, USDT, USDD, LUSD, and MAI have continued to rise in market capitalization against the trend. Among them, USDT has the largest market value, and the increase is more significant. According to statistics, the market value of USDT has risen by 1.41% from US$82.052 billion a month ago, and by 25.63% from US$66.237 billion at the beginning of this year.
From the multi-chain composition of USDT, according to the data displayed on Tether’s official website [1], the total authorized amount of TRC-20 USDT (based on Tron) and ERC-20 USDT (based on Ethereum) is currently the highest, about 46.12 billion USDT and 36.28 billion respectively USDT far exceeds the total authorized amount issued based on other public chains. Considering the authorized but unissued amount, the actual issuance of TRC-20 USDT and ERC-20 USDT is 44.962 billion USDT and 36.199 billion USDT respectively, accounting for 97.61% of the total actual issuance of USDT.
TRC-20 USDT and ERC-20 USDT constitute almost the entire market value of USDT. From the changes in the market value of these two USDTs, it can be found that since this year, the market value of TRC-20 USDT and ERC-20 USDT have continued to rise, of which The market value of TRC-20 USDT rose from 31.717 billion USDT to 42.790 billion USDT, an increase of about 34.90%, and the market value of ERC-20 USDT rose from 27.996 billion USDT to 33.380 billion USDT, an increase of about 19.23%. In fact, after October 2022, the market value changes of these two USDTs began to diverge, and the growth trend of TRC-20 USDT was more significant, with larger increments and faster growth rates.
Recently, the market value of USDT has returned to the high point in early May 2022, but behind this, there is a change in the internal structure of USDT, and TRC-20 USDT has become increasingly dominant. This change in composition will play an important role in understanding the market reaction caused by changes in USDT market value, because there are certain differences in the application scenarios of TRC-20 USDT and ERC-20 USDT.
The average daily transaction volume on the chain exceeds 6.9 billion USDT, and the stock of the exchange has increased, but the transaction volume has decreased
Where did the newly issued USDT go? From the perspective of the underlying usage, since the beginning of this year, the daily average transaction volume of TRC-20 USDT has shown a significant growth trend, from 414,200 USDT at the beginning of the year to the current 711,400 USDT, an increase of about 71.76%. About 9.370 billion USDT.
Since the beginning of this year, the daily on-chain transaction volume of ERC-20 USDT has shown a slight downward trend, from 1.537 billion USDT at the beginning of the year to the current 1.541 billion USDT, a drop of about 0.25%, and the average daily transaction volume is about 4.464 billion USDT. Overall, the average daily on-chain transaction volume of these two USDTs is about 6.917 billion USDT.
From the perspective of market segments, may the increased on-chain transaction volume occur in centralized exchanges or in DeFi protocols, or in other payment scenarios?
The data shows that since the beginning of this year, the stock of ERC-20 USDT in exchanges has shown a clear upward trend. It is currently about 9.290 billion USDT, the highest in the year, up 34.62% from the lowest point of 6.901 billion USDT in the year.
However, what is interesting is that while the stock of ERC-20 USDT in the exchange is growing, the daily trading volume is showing a significant shrinking trend. The average daily transaction volume of ERC-20 USDT this year is 74.2 million USDT. After April, the average daily transaction volume of each month is lower than the annual average. This month, the average daily trading volume of ERC-20 USDT was only 36.7 million USDT, a decrease of 11.35% from the previous month in May, and the decrease in May was also 22.47%. The month-on-month decrease was as high as 51.05%.
It can be seen that although there are more USDT in the exchange, it has not promoted transactions in the centralized market. This may be one of the reasons why the growth of USDT market value has not been reflected in the currency price.
Judging from the amount of USDT locked in the DeFi protocol, the inflow situation is not clear. Overall, according to data from glassnode, the current ERC-20 USDT locked in smart contracts accounts for about 15.03% of its circulation, which is equivalent to the level at the end of July 2022, which is lower than that at the beginning of May 2022. The market value is similar At that time (approximately 20% at that time). That is to say, with the same size of market value, there are currently fewer USDTs locked in smart contracts, which means that the size of USDT in DeFi is likely to be smaller than before.
Judging from the recent changes in the USDT lock-up volume of the specific agreement, the USDT lock-up volume in Uniswap V3, Compound, and AAVE V2 on Ethereum has increased in the past month, and Uniswap V3, which has the best growth, has increased by 31.13% , the increase is relatively obvious, compared with the beginning of this year, it also increased by 15.82%, but compared with last year, the lock-up volume of USDT still has a significant decline. On Tron, JustMoney has the best growth. In the past month, USDT lock-up volume has increased by 46.30%, and this year's increase is 60.51%. The changes in the USDT lock-up volume of different protocols are significantly different.
According to comprehensive multi-dimensional data, part of the newly issued USDT has flowed into centralized exchanges, but it has not promoted actual transactions, and the transaction volume has continued to shrink. part of the agreement, and the overall scale is still lower than when the previous market value was the same. Another guess is that the additional TRC-20 USDT may have flowed to other payment scenarios.
The price of BTC has risen steadily, the volatility has decreased, and the number of independent active addresses on the USDT chain has dropped more significantly
The overall environment of the current market may also be one of the reasons why the growth of USDT’s market value has not reflected the changes in currency prices. On the one hand, many mainstream assets represented by BTC are currently in the stage of sideways adjustment. Market data shows that since the beginning of this year, BTC’s currency Although the currency price is on an upward trend, this trend is close to a "step" shape. The platform construction period is relatively long, and the average daily fluctuation of the currency price has weakened. Under such circumstances, funds may choose to continue to wait and see. It is reflected in the data that the stock of exchanges has increased but the transaction volume has decreased.
On the other hand, during the sideways market, user activity also declined. The number of independent active addresses on the chain has always been a good window to observe the scale of users. Judging from the trend of the number of independent active addresses on the BTC chain this year, it has generally remained basically stable. new highs. Overall, BTC’s active user base has not grown significantly.
In contrast, the number of independent active addresses on the ERC-20 USDT chain this year has shown a clear downward trend, currently about 56,800, which is a significant drop from the highest number of independent active addresses in a single day of 149,900 this year. The number of active addresses is 87,000, which is also far away. This means that the number of active users of USDT is likely to decrease.
Data description: [ 1 ] There are certain statistical caliber deviations among the data sources of the market capitalization of DefiLlama, The Block and Tether, etc., but there is no magnitude difference between these data, which does not affect the observation of market trend changes.
