SignalPlus Macro Review (20230516)
Dear friends, welcome to the SignalPlus macro review. SignalPlus macro reviews update macro market information for you every day, and share our observations and opinions on macro trends. Welcome to track and subscribe, and follow the latest market trends with us.
Dear friends, welcome to the SignalPlus macro review. SignalPlus macro reviews update macro market information for you every day, and share our observations and opinions on macro trends. Welcome to track and subscribe, and follow the latest market trends with us.
U.S. markets remained largely volatile on Monday, with bonds and equities sluggish throughout New York trading hours, though sources pointed to Michael Burry (of “Big Short” fame) as his largest holdings in JD.com and Alibaba, accounting for Chinese tech stocks, 20 percent of Scion Asset Management's portfolio, were up 4 percent yesterday on the news, with hedge fund managers on average cutting their China-related positions significantly since the start of the year, but it's clear Mr Burry isn't afraid to bet against the trend.
On the data front, the New York Fed manufacturing index plunged 42.6 to -31.8, far below expectations and the biggest drop since April 2020, at its lowest level in 3 years; all items in the index were weak, especially new orders Obviously, it fell to -28 from +25 last month, and shipments also fell to -16.4 from +23.9 last month.
The rest of the market's focus was on the debt ceiling, with President Biden announcing a meeting with House Speaker McCarthy ahead of Wednesday's scheduled trip to Asia and Australia; Running out of cash on May 1 to put pressure on Congress to reach a deal by then, since the House will be in recess from May 25 to June 5, which means only about a week and a half left To complete final negotiations, however, the two sides are still quite far from reaching an agreement (McCarthy: "negotiations are not progressing"), which may lead to brinkmanship at the last minute.
It's worth noting that if the debt ceiling is breached, the Treasury could prioritize interest payments over other essential spending, affecting government workers and services; government services make up about 7% of GDP, and any real shutdown of government spending would would be a serious drag on the economy, with the White House now releasing their own estimates that the impact on GDP could range from -0.3% (short-term brinkmanship) to -6.1% (in the unlikely event of a prolonged standoff).
In cryptocurrencies, long ETFs posted net outflows of $85 million in May, reversing April inflows, though total assets remained above levels seen in most of the second half of 2022. The prices of major currencies are still not improving, BTC and ETH fell to the edge of 27,000 and 1,800 US dollars respectively, resulting in the liquidation of long positions, and meme-coins have experienced a short squeeze in the past 12 hours. Other than that, the market is pretty quiet.
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