SignalPlus Macro Review (20230512)

特邀专栏作者

2023-05-12 12:47 (UTC+8)

This article is about 1135 words, reading the full article takes about 2 minutes

The Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% yesterday, and is quickly catching up with the Fed. The decision is mainly based on the economic situation being much stronger than expected and inflation still higher than expected; ho

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Yesterday, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5%, which is quickly catching up with the pace of the Fed. The decision is mainly based on the fact that the economic situation is much stronger than expected and inflation is still higher than expected; Expectations remain fairly firm, with global government bonds still rallying sharply yesterday as China's CPI/PPI and headline funding data were very weak and US regional banking problems resurfaced, drowning out any hawkish sentiment.

Taking a quick look at most asset classes, prices were largely unchanged (SPX 4,150, 10y yield 3.40%, gold ~$2,000, USDJPY 135, oil ~$70), despite PacWest stock plummeted 20% on deposits down 9%, but benchmark volatility fell instead, and the inversion/low volatility/high stock multiple boom continues, looks like low volatility is here to stay with us for longer for a while.

On the data front, initial jobless claims rose by 22,000 to a 19-month high of 264,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.813 million, a 17-month high; PPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, while annualized core growth slipped to 3.2% from 3.4% in the previous month, marking the 10th consecutive month of slowing PPI, continuing the market's hopes to see The theme of slowing inflation supports the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates.

On the cryptocurrency front, while BTC/ETH prices remain weak and technical analysis charts are starting to show bearish features, the past few days have seen some interesting announcements about different usage scenarios, with OpenAI founder Sam Altman announcing the launch of their first A gas-free encrypted wallet with 500,000 active users and will migrate from Polygon to Optimism's L2 mainnet in the future; in addition, the Federal Reserve announced that they will launch the FedNow payment system deployed on the Metal Layer-0 blockchain in July, FedNow allows Americans to make instant payments to PayPal, Venmo, and even other encrypted wallets, and as part of compliance controls, US regulators may use Metal's "X-Chain" subnetwork to build asset transfer rules, however we like. No, CBDCs seem to be coming soon, and expect to see more announcements from other central banks about their own stablecoin arrangements in the coming quarters.

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