SignalPlus Macro Review (20230511)

特邀专栏作者

2023-05-11 14:18 (UTC+8)

This article is about 892 words, reading the full article takes about 2 minutes

Yesterday, in-line CPI data results once again suppressed market volatility (VIX < 17%), core CPI rose 0.41% month-on-month, in line with consensus expectations, and the data results were better than many Wall Street's high estimates.

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Yesterday, in line with expectations, the CPI data results once again suppressed market volatility (VIX < 17%), the core CPI rose 0.41% month-on-month, in line with market consensus expectations, and the data results were better than many Wall Street's high estimates; Landlord equivalent rent Prices for used cars rose 4.4% mom, while prices for away-from-home accommodation (-3% mom) and air tickets (-2.6% mom) helped ease core services inflation.

The market reacted knee-jerkly positively, with the SPX initially up 1.1%, but then tumbling 1.5% from its intraday high before closing 0.5% higher; overall, housing inflation also continued to moderate as CPI did not surprise upwards, plus Market investors were pleased with the positives that core services inflation rose only moderately. Still, skeptics will point to core CPI growth remaining at a high 5% year-over-year, used car prices rising much more than expected, and core services PCE (excluding housing) still rising steadily, all factors the Fed wants The crux of the problem

Regardless, the June FOMC meeting is now strongly inclined to pause rate hikes against the backdrop of expectations of a rapid credit tightening, with rate markets now pricing in a 40% chance of a rate cut.

Cryptocurrency prices continue to trade sideways and the recent memecoin craze has also paused, although the latest trading volume data from CEX shows that overall trading volumes fell to the lowest level since December 2021, and people's interest in participation continued to decline sharply. Trading research also continues to show a sharp decline in market liquidity, consistent with an overall reduction in trading participants. Finally, I would like to share an interesting thing. The previous surge in memecoin trading volume did not have a positive impact on the BTC price trend, because many meme tokens inevitably died out, resulting in a blow to capital, which in turn had a negative impact on major currencies.

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