Shapella upgrade selling pressure has passed, can ETH break through $2,000 this week?
Since Ethereum completed the Shapella upgrade on April 13, in the past nearly a month, the price of ETH has experienced a surge (up to $2140) and then a correction, with a wide range of fluctuations. Compared with the upgrade Daily ($1917) fell only 4%, far less than the 7.6% decline of Bitcoin during the same period.
More importantly, the data on the chain shows that the selling pressure brought about by the Shapella upgrade has officially passed, and the price of ETH is expected to rise in the future.Token Unlocksimage description
(data fromOKLink OKLink）
If we further refine the data, we can find that the peak of ETH withdrawals occurred on April 15, as high as 392,800; since then, the withdrawals have gradually declined, and the high point has continued to move downward; since the beginning of May, the average daily withdrawal The amount is 58002 ETH.
At the same time, the amount of ETH deposits has continued to grow. Since April 29, the daily pledge amount has exceeded the daily withdrawal amount for 11 consecutive days; since May, the average daily ETH deposit amount has been 114,641, and the average daily net deposit has been 56,639. The current ETH pledge amount reaches 18.06 million ETH, a record high, and the pledge rate is 15.01%. This trend is expected to continue, resulting in growing net pledges - stronger buying will also drive ETH prices higher, and it is only a matter of time before they return to $2,000.
In addition, there are some interesting data about ETH withdrawals worth paying attention to.
Nansen dataIt shows that in the first week of withdrawal, the main focus is on the withdrawal of pledge rewards (that is, partial withdrawal), and this part (856,000 ETH) accounts for nearly 80% of the total withdrawal amount (1.088 million); combined with April From the 13th to April 19th, the market fell sharply after rising to 2100 US dollars, which can be interpreted as the user has completed the profit selling. So far, 89% of the validators are in the pending withdrawal state (status is 0x 01 type), and only 11% of the remaining validators have not updated the status, which means that the impact of selling pressure from staking rewards will gradually decrease in the future.
fromGlassnode datashows that the amount withdrawn principal (32 ETH) officially surpassed partial withdrawals (staking rewards) on April 28. It should be noted that the number of full withdrawals is determined by the number of withdrawn validators, which is limited by the "Churn Limit Quotient". Currently, a maximum of 1,800 validators (57,600 ETH) can be withdrawn a day.
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(the entity that withdraws the ETH principal)
In fact, in the past month, most of the ETH was deposited through liquidity staking agreements such as Lido, Rocketpool, and Frax; in particular, Frax grew rapidly, from 100,000 before the upgrade to the current 180,000. 80%. It should be noted that Lido has a withdrawal amount of 214,000 ETH (partial withdrawal, withdrawal of pledge rewards), which is mainly exchanged in advance to establish a protocol buffer to meet the user's demand for currency withdrawal - Lido will open in May Withdrawal (Lido V2 will go live after the voting on May 15th), withdrawal requests less than 1000 ETH can be completed within 1 day (standard Ethereum withdrawal takes 2-6 days), 1000 to 5000 ETH within 2 days To complete, it will take 4-10 days for more than 5000 ETH, and more than 10 is expected to take two weeks to complete.
From the perspective of the average holding cost of ETH pledge, the overall pledge cost is 2127 US dollars, which is much higher than the current market price, so even users who withdraw the principal are unlikely to sell.
Finally, our conclusion is that the selling pressure brought about by the Shapella upgrade has officially passed, and the new pledge volume will continue to exceed the withdrawal volume for a period of time in the future, bringing more net pledge balances, and the ETH price is expected to break through upwards in the future $2000.
