SignalPlus Macro Review (20230510)

特邀专栏作者

2023-05-10 12:53 (UTC+8)

This article is about 848 words, reading the full article takes about 2 minutes

It was another fairly quiet session yesterday, with risk sentiment cooling at the open in Asia as Chinese import data came in well below expectations, pointing to continued weakness in domestic demand and a lack of further growth momentum after reopening

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Yesterday was another rather quiet trading day, with Asian markets seeing continued weakness in domestic demand and a lack of further growth momentum after reopening as Chinese import data was much weaker than expected (-7.9% y/y vs -0.2% expected). Risk sentiment cooled at the opening.

In the US, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the only data released yesterday, fell 1.2% to 89 in April, the lowest level since January 2013, mainly due to concerns about inflation, high interest rates, pressure on the banking sector, labor shortages and widespread fears of a recession. However, the TradFi market closed almost flat yesterday, the SPX edged down only 0.45%, bond yields were unchanged, and investment grade corporate bond rates were only up about 1-2 basis points despite $22 billion in new bond issuance on Monday.

Today we will see the CPI release for April, Wall Street economists still expect the data to come in slightly above the Bloomberg consensus forecast due to rising used car prices, however, the SPX's 1-day Straddle pricing is at its lowest level (0.83%) in the past 12 months, suggesting that in the current circumstances, the main volatility after the CPI release is likely to be more concentrated in fixed income markets rather than equities.

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