Blur flameout, "Three Idiots" are out, where is the NFT market going?
Original Author: Cookie, Rhythm BlockBeats
When Blur, the liquidity engine of the NFT market, is gradually shutting down:
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The total ETH transaction volume of Blur itself and various NFT markets is constantly declining (Source: @punk 9059 )
When the three "old blue chips" of Doodles, Clone X, and Moonbirds continue to fall and become the "NFT three idiots", Cool Cats are no longer even considered blue chips:
For the first time, the term "NFT bear market" is so deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. As a senior diving observer in the circle, the author has witnessed the process of many NFT-themed discussion groups gradually falling silent and then being re-ignited by airdrops and Arbitrum "earth dogs". After all, the cold winter of the NFT market is really too difficult...
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In the past 9 months, NFT players have lost 1,000 ~ 2,000 ETH on all trading days... (Source: @punk 9059 )
@JIVVVA（Twitter:@jivacore）：Imagine Labs Co-Founder、SCC Founder
@sleepy（Twitter：@sleepy 0x 13 ）：Weirdo Ghost Gang Founder
@yongkun（Twitter：@yongkunnn）：Jpeg Street Founder
@Gavin（Twitter：@Gavin_Alphas）：TreasureDAO CN Community Leader
In such a tragic and deserted winter, what do NFT bosses think about the current NFT market? The author had the honor to interview 4 big names in the NFT circle:
Let's take a look together, what kind of thinking do the big guys have about the current market~
@JIVVVA：BlockBeats: Doodles, CloneX, Moonbirds, Cool Cats and other old blue chips continue to fall. Apart from the coldness of the NFT market, what other reasons make them fall behind?
These 4 items belong to "not doing something", or "doing something", but they have no positive effect on the shaping of their own brand.
Moonbirds and Cool Cats are more "nothing".
@sleepy：Doodles, Clone X "did something". The problem with Doodles is that the team lacks thinking about the overall development direction. Clone X is airdropping some metaverse clothing, virtual clothes, shoes, etc. These actions are still based on the narrative logic of the "metaverse fashion brand". walking. Actions based on the narrative logic of the "Metaverse Tide Card" may take 2 to 3 years to see results until relatively mature Metaverse games appear or Metaverse applications are widely accepted. It is a bit too advanced now, and does not match the logic currently accepted by the NFT market.
The fall behind of these old blue chips is not a surprise to me, it is more like a return of value. If there is a common problem for these old blue chips, I think they have lost the support of the community.
Cool Cats decided to make games, and this direction has been finalized, so even if they want to return to the brand building route now, they will be unable to recover.
The community of Clone X is very good, but they have been consuming the precious wealth of the community.
Moonbirds has had a rift with the community since the CC 0 incident.
@yongkun：Not to mention Doodles, after the financing, the "team disappeared" incident, the founder also directly engaged in a scolding battle with the community...
@Gavin：In addition to the coldness of the NFT market, a series of deficiencies in team development decisions and operations have also accumulated from quantitative changes to qualitative changes, which has caused these old blue chips to fall behind. For example, the actual progress of the project has stagnated, the release strategy of the new series has not balanced the existing community, and the crisis public relations of some negative events in the community are insufficient, etc.
From the perspective of supply and demand, NFT projects have been sublimated from "earth dogs" to blue chips, and the investment potential has gradually decreased to zero, leaving only community consumer demand. Whether the project can continue to shine depends on who can pay the bill next. Either continue to issue NFT through "matryoshka", or issue Token to let the traditional currency circle take over, or the project party will continue to make the market. None of these projects have the capabilities in these aspects, so they spiraled down in a bear market.
@JIVVVA：BlockBeats: What are the reasons why old blue chips such as BAYC, CryptoPunks, and Azuki are still relatively stable?
BAYC, CryptoPunks, and Azuki all have their own narrative logic, and develop firmly along their own narrative logic.
BAYC engages in "brand + game". Because the brand of the whole ecology is strong enough, it can help to continue to tell the story of the game, and continue to deliver things that at least meet the expectations of the community. In the process of storytelling + story realization, rely on royalties and NFT sales Obtain continuous income and continue to support project development.
CryptoPunks are "antiques", and since they are all "antiques", in fact, doing nothing will have no effect.
@sleepy：Azuki focuses on creating "tide brand". The narrative logic of these projects is recognized in the current market environment.
One of the reasons must be that Blur did not ban their points. Although it is well known that these projects have a high transaction volume, Blur has never cared about them.
@yongkun：Another reason is that the communities of these projects are much stronger than the "stragglers" such as Doodles, CloneX, Moonbirds and Cool Cats.
CryptoPunks, as the originator of PFP, has its own category attributes very close to artworks. Groups holding this type of NFT will not pay too much attention to other empowerments, so they are relatively more stable.
As the leader of PFP, BAYC has a market premium for the leader, and behind it is the entire Yuga ecology to empower it. The progress of the Metaverse is also good, and it has pledged $APE itself. Compared with ordinary PFP, asset attributes are heavier and can generate cash flow, so it is stable.
@Gavin：Azuki is very sticky to young people due to its good brand tonality and operation, and the community is currently the most active and cohesive. Against the background of the general decline of old blue chips, it can suck blood from other old blue chips for involution. There are strong currency issuance expectations and speculation potential, so in the current general decline environment, it will continue to rise against the trend and maintain stability.
NFT is still in the early stage of exploration. The real hard-core demand is the demand for avatar PFP. Just like the head of the women's bag market can only accommodate LV, Prada, and Hermes, the head PFP competition should only survive about 3 or so projects . And it should be noted that the market-making capital behind these three projects is extremely fierce.
As the founder of NFT, Punk still spared no effort in marketing, and pioneered Christie's auction pull.
BAYC has attracted a group of big players such as Dingaling, Maji, and Franklin. The project party has even carried forward the "glorious tradition" of dolls, issuing coins, and making money from the Ethereum chain to Bitcoin.
Azuki is still the master of pull-and-roll. The founder continues to "start a business" and "learn" (continue to RUG to make money), and finally meets the right time, place and people on Azuki for pull-and-roll capital, market rhythm and profitable community. Currently, Azuki holders are still betting on Token expectations.
To understand simply and crudely, the capital behind these three projects (including the receiving capital and the profitable community) has earned enough money, and is still interested in continuing to play on these three IPs.
@JIVVVA：BlockBeats: Recently, there is a saying that Beeple + Sartoshi + the entire mfers community can't make Nakamigos break through 1 ETH. At the same time, Nike (Clone X), Adidas and Puma series have not performed well in the market. It seems that the two major forces in the NFT market - Both community push and external brand influence have failed. Has the fundamental logic of NFT projects changed?
In fact, the core focus of the overall NFT market is the same as that of the entire currency circle, which is "liquidity". After all, the NFT market itself is also a marginal market and will be more sensitive to liquidity. Therefore, NFT projects are quite like "growth stocks" in the stock market. When the liquidity is good, a higher valuation premium can be obtained. Once the liquidity of the market becomes poor, the value will return.
@sleepy：The meaning of "value return" is actually very simple-do the holder group really like the NFT they hold? If the community buys it and doesn’t sell it, just likes it and collects it, then it will naturally show stability in market performance.
Beeple and Sartoshi's "shouting order effect" is actually average, with little reference value.
As for Nakamigos itself, apart from Meme, there are no other outstanding highlights, and the community is not based on the recognition of a certain idea, but Meme. Stir-fried Meme = Stir-fry emotions, when the emotions are over, the popularity will disperse.
Clone X has been letting its community keep spending money, and the patience of the community has been seriously exhausted. Although Adidas' market performance is average, it has a good reputation. Puma I don't pay much attention.
@yongkun：In fact, I have never thought that external brands are a good thing for NFT projects. For example, Nike makes a lot more money selling shoes and clothes than NFT, so why bother with NFT? Only with the determination to break the boat will we continue to work hard on our NFT projects.
First of all, the NFT market currently has not only no growth, but also a loss of stock. In the case of stock loss, all previous rising factors will be weakened, and there is no obvious bottoming out so far.
@Gavin：Therefore, at the moment, the promotion of external brands and communities is not so effective. After all, old players have been exposed to these things for a long time, and they are not new. Coupled with the fact that the narratives of several of the projects mentioned in the question are still legacy narratives, it's no surprise that this happened. Current NFT projects pay more attention to innovation, whether it is a new narrative or a new technology.
The sun rises in the east and sets in the west, and it is impossible to always be the scorching sun at 12 noon. Moreover, NFT is a new thing, and the early speculative waves will be even greater. It is an inevitable result that 99% of NFTs will return to zero.
The generative art myth of Beeple and even Art Blocks cannot be maintained. In the final analysis, this plate is high-quality, far less smooth than the avatar community project, market-making and relay.
The next rising NFT should no longer be simple PFP and "matryoshka" projects. New concepts and narratives are needed to allow Web3 players who are always full of positions and full of tears to sit on the NFT "table" again.
@JIVVVA：BlockBeats: What else is worth paying attention to in the current NFT market?
@sleepy：If the holders of an item are all "consumer collectors" who "buy pictures for love", such an item is worthy of attention. There are many holders of Art Blocks, and the following projects like Fidenza, Gazers, Chromie Squiggle and Friendship Bracelets are worthy of attention.
@yongkun：It has been falsified that IRL big brands personally issued NFT projects to enter the market. Helping brands enter Web3 is an opportunity for Web3 Native projects, and may promote the "breaking circle" of NFT. In addition, for the NFT liquidity problem, there will be a new solution based on NFT fragmentation in the future. Unlike existing NFT fragmentation projects, Blur and OpenSea are still dangerous.
I am currently more focused on opportunities outside of ETH, such as NFTs on Bitcoin, which are currently booming. In addition, some new opportunities may also be born on the new chain Sui.
@Gavin：At the same time, I will also pay attention to NFTs that are not PFP narratives. The imagination brought by new narratives is very important.
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Under the market environment of lack of increment and loss of stock, NFT has "returned in value". The growing NFT narrative logic can no longer bring a premium to the project, and the KOL's order-calling effect has also weakened as the market has become deserted.
We always said before that time will prove how important a solid community is to an NFT project. Blur's gradual shutdown has accelerated the process of getting this proof. No matter what kind of Token model is used to stimulate liquidity, for an NFT project, the most reliable development foundation is still the emotional connection between the picture and the holder. A handover based on emotional connection handover is the healthiest for NFT projects.
A large number of community creations may be one of the indicators for us to judge the basic market of NFT projects at this stage. If it is combined with an efficient decision-making form and supplemented by the correct choice of development direction, perhaps this will be a bear market survivor among many projects.
