Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: The Federal Reserve is dovish, and giant whales pump up their shipments

Foresight

特邀专栏作者

2022-12-05 11:28 (UTC+8)

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A list of the important news of the week.

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A list of the important news of the week.

market view

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Monetary liquidity has eased. The U.S. jobs data for November fell short of expectations, reinforcing market dovish expectations. Oil prices plummeted to a nine-month low amid fears of a recession. Market bets on a 50 basis point hike in December rose to 77% from 66% previously after Powell signaled a slowdown in rate hikes as early as December. U.S. stocks were boosted and rebounded, while the U.S. dollar index turned lower. Crypto has slightly decoupled from US stocks.

2. The whole market situation

The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:

The crypto market rebounded slightly this week, with BTC up 3% and ETH up 9%. The lending agency Blockfi went bankrupt because of the FTX exchange, and Nexo is also rumored to be bankrupt.

1) APE: Staking mode will start on December 5th. Also about to start staking are LINK and CHZ. Staking changes token supply and demand in the short term. However, the smart money on NANSEN continues to sell APE, such as the giant whale Huang Licheng sold 200,000 APE at a high level. It seems that the rise during this period is to help large funds to ship and activate market liquidity.

2) DOGE: The market speculates that Twitter 2.0 payments will have new changes in encryption functions. Twitter and Apple had a dispute over 30% monopoly pricing, and Apple once threatened to remove Twitter. Musk wants to fight against Apple, or make his own mobile phone. Later, Musk was invited to visit Apple headquarters and gradually reconciled with Apple.

4) FTM: AC claims that the FTM chain has an annual income of 10 million US dollars, and its own profit mainly depends on selling coins. The FTM chain lending protocol GEIST has surged 5 times since the BNB hacker deposited coins in October.

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3. BTC market

1) Data on the chain

Miners continue to surrender. The selling pressure from BTC miners continued to suppress the market price. More than 4,000 BTC were sold this week, forming the fourth selling peak since 2022. When the price of BTC dropped from $20,000 to $16,000, miners transferred funds to exchanges more frequently.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. MVRV fell below the key level 1, and holders are generally in the red. The current indicator is -0.22, which is in the green bottom buying range.

2) Futures market

Futures funding rate: The rate is slightly negative this week, and there is no obvious long-short trend in the market. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, and the long leverage is more, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate is -0.1-0%, and the short leverage is more, which is the short-term bottom of the market.

Futures open interest: The total open interest increased slightly this week, but the mood remains depressed.

Futures long-short ratio: 1.6. Most retail investors are bottom-hunting, and the market may not be at the bottom yet. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance has been weakened.

market data:

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1. The total lock-up amount of the public chain

Total TVL was up $0.63b for the week, for an overall weekly gain of 1.5%. Among them, the TVL of Ethereum rose by 3.72%. Solana gained 6.97% for the week after three straight weeks of declines, but only accounted for 0.72% of TVL. BSC fell 4.02% this week, Layer 2 public chain Arbitrum rose 2.25%, polygon rose 0.94%, avalanche rose 3.18%, and Optimism fell 1.16%

1) ETH locked position situation

2) BSC lock-up volume:

3) Tron lock-up volume

4) Solana lock-up volume

5) Avalanche lock-up volume

6) Polygon lock-up volume

8) Optimism lock-up volume

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This week's gas has little change from last week. The current average transaction fee on the chain is about $0.43, the average transaction fee on Uniswap is about $3.74, and the average transaction fee on Opensea is about $1.45. As of December 01, 2022, Optimism's Sequencer and Arbitrum's Sequencer 3 ranked the top two in transaction activity in the past 24 hours, consuming 15.21 Eth and 12.1 Eth respectively.