Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: The market is facing the Lehman crisis, and the FTX sell-off continues

Foresight

特邀专栏作者

2022-11-13 14:30 (UTC+8)

This article is about 1996 words, reading the full article takes about 3 minutes

A list of the important news of the week.

AI Summary

Expand

A list of the important news of the week.

market view

first level title

1. Macro liquidity

2. The whole market

Monetary liquidity slows down. Unemployment has formed in the pillar industries of the United States. In order to avoid damage to the economy caused by excessive tightening, the Federal Reserve will most likely slow down the intensity of interest rate hikes to 50 basis points in December, reducing liquidity pressure. If the Republican Party wins control of the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections, it will help alleviate the unilateral and strong style of the Democratic Party, which may lead to a dovish turn by the Fed. The U.S. dollar index retreated slightly, and the rally appears to have peaked. U.S. stocks fell collectively this week, and the crypto market hit a two-year low due to the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange.

secondary title

1) FTT: 2. The whole market

2) SOL: The top 100 gainers by market capitalization

3)HT: The FTX exchange and its related party, the Alameda Fund, had a deficit of about US$8 billion, and were run out and suspended withdrawals. Binance abandoned the acquisition of FTX after the investigation, and some institutions that lent to FTX also reported that they were insolvent. Coinbase Exchange may benefit from fewer compliance competitors. The explosion of centralized exchanges will benefit Defi in the long run.

SBF is a long-term supporter of the Solana chain. In the long run, the Solana ecology will be severely hit. SOL nodes began to unlock the pledge and run away, OK and other exchanges suspended the deposit and withdrawal of the Solana chain. Related SOL, SRM, RAY, RNDR, etc. all plummeted.

Huobi Exchange’s improper handling of the GALA issuance event caused user dissatisfaction to plummet. The Huobi Exchange has newly opened a stablecoin with a 10% high interest rate for storage, and is alert to related risks.

secondary title

3. BTC market

1) Data on the chain

ETH benefits from a surge in network activity, turning net deflationary. Since the merger of ETH was completed on September 15, 2022, due to the surge in on-chain activities due to market volatility, the supply of ETH has achieved deflation, reducing about 10 ETH. ETH outperformed BTC.

BTC miners hit shutdown threshold again. Some miners appear to be overextended, spending more cash on debt payouts or building infrastructure than they take in. BTC active address trends indicate that on-chain network usage is still declining.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the index is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the index is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. MVRV fell below the key level 1, and holders are generally in the red. The current indicator is -0.37, which is in the green bottom-buying range.

2) Futures market

Futures funding rate: This week, the market turned more bearish, BTC rate was -0.1%, and some varieties of FTT and SOL even had an extreme value of -2.5% rate. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, is the short-term bottom of the market.

Futures open interest: Total open interest fell sharply this week, hitting a 21-week low, with bullish momentum fading.

3) Spot market

This week, BTC hit a two-year low and is in a more pessimistic panic trend. Originally, when the market was rebounding and people's minds were rising, the confrontation between Binance and FTX triggered a liquidity run and caused systemic risks. FTX is not the first big exchange to fail, nor will it be the last. In the face of the failure of big Wall Street capital and centralized exchanges, decentralized money and finance will continue to survive and prosper. The good news is that the liquidation of leverage has accelerated and bottomed out, and the inflection point of the market will be seen after the restoration of macro liquidity. We are very optimistic about the prospects of the encryption market in 2023.

market data

1. The total lock-up amount of the public chain

The total TVL dropped by 9.45b this week, a drop of 17.5%. Among them, Solana had the largest drop, with a TVL drop of 55% in a single week. The overall drop of the ETH chain was about 15%. The Polygon chain performed the best, with an overall drop of 11%. The decline rate of the rest of the chains is basically around 25%.

Solana dropped from 1.79% last week to 0.99%, basically declaring that it will gradually withdraw from the stage of history in the future, while Polygon rose to fourth place in one fell swoop, accounting for 2.55%, gradually widening the gap with fifth place Avalanche , and in the bear market, thanks to the increase in user usage in third world countries, the number of Polygon users continues to grow, and it may occupy this position for a long time in the future.

secondary title

2. The lock-up amount of each chain protocol

1) ETH lock-up volume

2) BSC lock-up volume

3) Tron lock-up volume

4) Solana lock-up volume

6) Polygon lock-up volume

7) Arbitrum lock-up volume

secondary title

3. History of ETH Gas fee

The current on-chain transfer fee is about $1.95, the Uniswap transaction fee is about $6.64, and the Opensea transaction fee is about $2.58. Affected by the market crash this week, there has been a surge in Gas for several days in a row. Uniswap V3 transactions are active. In addition, top quantitative trading institutions recently The Gas consumption of the Jump trading 2 account reached 343 ETH within 24 hours, ranking among the top five.