Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: The market rebounded on Halloween, and the popularity of altcoins climbed

Foresight

特邀专栏作者

2022-11-06 15:00 (UTC+8)

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A list of the important news of the week.

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A list of the important news of the week.

market view

1. Macro liquidity

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2. The whole market

1. Macro liquidity

Currency liquidity has tightened. With the US economic growth remaining resilient and the labor market still strong, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time as scheduled. Powell made hawkish remarks, implying that interest rates will be raised in a steady stream, and the single rate may slow down, but the rate hike cycle will be longer than predicted. The market sentiment that bet on a policy shift was frustrated, US stocks returned to decline, and the US dollar index rose sharply. The Crypto market is picking up and is temporarily stronger than the US stock market.

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2. The whole market

3) BLUR: Benefiting from the enthusiasm of the NFT project Art Gobbler, the revenue of the NFT trading platform BLUR has exploded, and it is close to Opensea in the short term. Both projects were led by Paradigm.

3. BTC market

1) Data on the chain

4) HFT: Binance's new Launch pool project. Hashflow came out in November last year. It is an anti-MEV decentralized exchange with low handling fees and no slippage. AMM liquidity is not required, and there are partner market makers, which is equivalent to trading with market makers. Early on there were airdrops.

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1) Data on the chain

2) Futures market

BTC may continue to bottom out. At the bottom stage of BTC in 2018-19, about 23% of the supply was redistributed, compared with about 14% of the supply in 22 years, the scale is obviously not enough. This suggests that more consolidation is needed for a bear market bottom to fully form. There is no convincing influx of new demand in the market, and the transition from a bear market to a bull market has not yet taken shape.

Overall data for October was mixed. The CEX spot transaction volume decreased by 26%, and the total transaction volume on the chain decreased by 35%. The issued supply of stablecoins edged up by 0.3%. For the current market, what is more important is the accumulation of the market value of stable coins. Only when the purchasing power further increases can the bottom construction be strengthened.

2) Futures market

3) Spot market

This week BTC has climbed back above the key psychological level of $20,000 after months of extremely low volatility. The rebound was mainly driven by three positive factors. First, the market is trading on expectations of the Fed. Whether this expectation is the Fed's judgment based on the economy or buying voters for the Democratic election is yet to be confirmed. If it is the former, it will be sustainable, and if it is the latter, it will continue to fall after the election. Secondly, in terms of news, with Musk’s official acquisition of Twitter, rumors about Twitter’s Web3 transformation spread, related Meme coins have soared, and the effect of making money on the site has been greatly improved. In terms of final trading, short sellers have continued to increase their bets in the past month, and large-scale liquidation has become an upward momentum instead. The rebound trend still continues, and the reversal has not yet been confirmed. The next CPI data on November 10 is particularly important.