Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: Market Volatility Is Imminent, Tier 1 Financing Valuations Are Still High

Foresight

特邀专栏作者

2022-10-22 10:30 (UTC+8)

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A list of the important news of the week.

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A list of the important news of the week.

market view

1. Macro liquidity

2. The whole market

The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:

Overall monetary liquidity tightened. The rate of decline in the inflation rate was slower than expected by the Federal Reserve, and the continuous rate hikes in the United States drove the yields of U.S. bonds higher across the board, putting risk assets under continued pressure. The market is still in the game of 50 or 75bp for the Fed's December rate hike. The rebound in U.S. stocks came to an abrupt end, and this rise is more like an oversold rebound for strategic short covering. The Crypto market is weaker than US stocks, and liquidity is gradually drying up.

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2. The whole market

The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:

3) QNT: Quant, a regulatory concept, has recently risen 4 times. It is mainly related to the digital currency CBDC of the US central bank, and some important commercial cooperation such as Oracle, SIA, etc.

3. BTC market

1) Data on the chain

4) LUNC: The new proposal changes the 1.2% transaction tax burn to 0.2%. Because if an exchange promotes burning, but the other 20 exchanges do not follow, the proportion of a certain exchange will decrease (burning itself), and the proportion of people who do not follow will increase (free ride).

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1) Data on the chain

2) Futures market

On-chain data shows that the bear market has yet to bottom out. At present, the proportion of BTC that has been dormant for more than 1 year is about 65%, which is near the historical peak; the proportion of more than 5 years is about 40%, setting a new record high. However, the proportion of profitable addresses on the current BTC network is still much higher than the level of several deep bearish periods in history.

The four main stablecoins continued to outflow more than 200 million U.S. dollars, which was at a relatively high level in the past half a year. It reflects the impact on cryptocurrency investors under the current state of tightened liquidity in the United States. The market value of stablecoins is one of the indicators to measure the prosperity of the market, and it is difficult to say that the market has stepped out of the bottom range.

2) Futures market

3) Spot market

BTC has been trading sideways for 9 weeks near 19,000, which is close to the end of the shock period. Periods in which markets have reached such lows are extremely rare in history, with nearly all precedents preceded by highly volatile moves. In 2018 BTC tested the $6,000 level several times before finally crashing.

market data

1. The total lock-up amount of the public chain

market data

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4) Solana lock-up volume

3. The lock-up amount of each chain protocol

1) ETH lock-up volume

2) BSC lock-up volume

3) Tron lock-up volume

4) Solana lock-up volume

5) Avalanche lockup volume

6) Polygon lock-up volume

7) Arbitrum lock-up volume

8) Optimism lockup volume

5) Avalanche lockup volume

8) Optimism lockup volume

4. History of ETH Gas fee

Last week, the Curve protocol fell sharply due to the impact of the Stablecoin Act. This week, it completely recovered the decline last week. It may be affected by the latest proposal of Curve DAO, enabling third-party applications to enable Curve rewards to be voted through. The approval means that the protocol that provides CRV rewards to users no longer needs to apply to the Curve community, which greatly reduces the difficulty for third-party protocol users to obtain CRV; in addition, hackers are rampant recently, security incidents occur frequently, and the TVL of the well-known lending protocol Mango has dropped In the end, the attack lost more than 100 million U.S. dollars. Most of the losses have been recovered and the Mango v3 redemption website has been opened. Users can apply for compensation according to the proposal results.