Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: Market Volatility Declines, Huobi is Strong

Foresight

特邀专栏作者

2022-10-17 11:04 (UTC+8)

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A list of the important news of the week.

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A list of the important news of the week.

market view

1. Macro liquidity

2. The whole market

The top 100 gainers by market capitalization

Overall monetary liquidity tightened. The Fed remained hawkish, reaffirming its goal of containing inflation at all costs. OPEC's announcement of production cuts led to a rebound in oil prices, which was negative for the capital market. The U.S. September CPI announced this week was 8.2%, higher than the 8.1% expected by the market, and it is still highly probable that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75bp in November. With the U.S. dollar having its strongest year in decades, it's no surprise that the U.S. stock market finds itself in trouble, with the Nasdaq hitting a fresh 2-year low. The Crypto market as a whole is stronger than the U.S. stock market, but it is still highly affected by it, and it is temporarily unable to go out of the independent market.

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2. The whole market

The top 100 gainers by market capitalization

3) Maker: Makerdao has recently surged by 50%. Its stablecoin DAI will no longer be pegged to the US dollar in the future, and its goal is to be a native crypto stablecoin, which is more decentralized. DAI is also negative recently. For example, the stablecoin exchange Curve will delete DAI from the three pools, but the market believes that this is not as important as decoupling the US dollar.

3. BTC market

1) Data on the chain

4) FXS: Frax will launch ETH pledge this month, similar to STETH. This frxETH can be used for market making, lending, minting stablecoins, etc. The income of frxETH comes from ETH staking and Curve rewards, which is more likely to be higher than other staking ETH. Recently, a giant whale address bought 12 million US dollars of FXS.

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1) Data on the chain

2) Futures market

Mining farms may face more difficulties. The BTC computing power hash rate has recently hit a record high, and such a significant increase in difficulty will reduce miners' income by 10%. The selling pressure of miners has dropped by 50% compared with the peak in September, and most of the selling pressure comes from the currency printing pool in the liquidity crisis, indicating that most miners are still hoarding coins. The proportion of long-term holdings of BTC has broken through a record high, and once again achieved the lowest stock on the exchange in 4 years.

The departure of US funds may have leveled off. The stable currency USDC decreased by 1.26 billion and continued to flow out; while USDT increased by 420 million U and BUSD increased by 590 million U, which was offset as a whole.

2) Futures market

3) Spot market

Futures funding rate: This week, the rate is mainly positive. BTC and ETH are in a bullish and bearish trend respectively, but neither is strong. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, is the short-term bottom of the market.

In the previous two BTC market cycles, new bottoms were formed 59 and 53 weeks after their cycle tops. It has been 48 weeks since the last all-time high of $69,000. If history tries to repeat itself, the final BTC bottom could be at the end of Q4.

market data

1. The total lock-up amount of the public chain

market data

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4) Solana lock-up volume

3. The lock-up amount of each chain protocol

1) ETH lock-up volume

2) BSC lock-up volume

3) Tron lock-up volume

4) Solana lock-up volume

5) Avalanche lockup volume

6) Polygon lock-up volume

7) Arbitrum lock-up volume

8) Optimism lockup volume

5) Avalanche lockup volume

8) Optimism lockup volume

4. History of ETH Gas fee

Possibly affected by the U.S. House of Representatives’ drafting of Stablecoin legislation, in the short term, Curve’s TVL has fallen sharply in multiple chains, with a drop of around 30%, and its token CRV has also seen a 20% drop during the same period; in addition, Beethoven X The protocol has experienced rapid growth on the OP chain in a short period of time, and has not seen the impact of actual events.