JZL Capital Blockchain Industry Weekly Report No. 37: Ethereum upgrade is imminent, market volatility intensifies
1. Summary of Industry Dynamics
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1. Summary of Industry Dynamics
Last week, the encryption market followed each share and ushered in a strong rebound. As of writing, Bitcoin closed at 21640.9, up 9.34% during the week, and continued the current upward momentum on the first trading day of this week. At 22125.2, it stood at the previous resistance level of 22000. Ethereum continued to perform strongly, rising 13.33% during the week to close at 1768. Ethereum completed the Bellatrix upgrade as scheduled last Tuesday, and successfully took the first step towards PoS. The second Paris hard fork is currently estimated to be carried out at 3:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 15, when Ethereum Will officially enter the PoS era. The following will continue to take stock of the possible arbitrage opportunities brought about by the merger of Ethereum.
First of all, regarding the merger, because the transformation of PoS has damaged the interests of some miners and mining machine manufacturers, the Ethereum community may subsequently fork into two camps, ETH-PoS and ETH-PoW, and several technical teams have announced that they will split Fork, such as the "ETHW" we shared in the 34th weekly report, this fork project by Bao Erye and Sun Yuchen platform. Two situations may occur in the second step of this merger. One is that Ethereum is successfully merged without forking tokens; the other is that two or more competing blockchains are generated after the hard fork, and Generate more than one new token and new chain, and the new chain will map all the assets of the original main network, so users will have the "same" assets on the new forked chain as the main network, but currently AAVE, UNI, Circle, Tether, Binance, etc. and other stablecoin custodians only support ETH-PoS, and most of the coins on other forked chains will be air coins.
The three major indexes closed up on Friday. The Nasdaq rose more than 4% in the week and got support near 11400 points, and began to rebound strongly for three consecutive trading days, completing a complete head and shoulders pattern. Crude oil prices plunged on Thursday, falling by more than 4%, basically erasing all the gains since February this year. Even though OPEC passed the decision to cut production by 100,000 barrels per day on Monday, oil prices still fell in the end. Insufficient demand has something to do with it. There may be two reasons for the reduction in oil production. One is to control the increase in production, and the other is insufficient demand. If you dig too much, you can’t sell it. The 100,000 barrels per day reduction in production has little impact on the price. It is very likely that it has exposed the weakness of the current bad economy and insufficient demand. It will constitute the main factor of inflation, which will have a strong boost to the expectation of future inflation control. Even so, the current market’s expectation of the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points next time is still gradually increasing, reaching 89%. From the perspective of the market, the expectation of substantial interest rate hikes has been digested by the market in this cycle. As long as the CPI released on the 13th of this week shows signs of continued easing, the US stock market is expected to continue to rebound.
2. Macro and technical analysis
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2. Macro and technical analysis
BTC rebounded more than expected in this round, and the market as a whole is relatively strong.
The two-year U.S. debt remains high and sideways.
ETH rebounded following BTC, and this rebound lagged behind BTC.
The two-year U.S. debt remains high and sideways.
The Nasdaq rebounded as scheduled and has a chance to hit the 120-day line in the short term.
1. Arh999: 0.38, the cost performance is already in a relatively good position, and regular investment can be made.
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3. Summary of investment and financing
1) Investment and financing review
3. Summary of investment and financing
1) Investment and financing review
During the reporting period, 24 investment and financing events were disclosed (a month-on-month increase of 28%), and financing was approximately US$592 million (a month-on-month increase of 68.66%);
In terms of specific tracks, there are 13 projects in the Web 3.0 & NFTs track, accounting for 50%, with a total financing scale of US$1.4 billion; while Infrastructure is affected by Mysten Lab’s US$300 million financing, although the number of projects is small, but in terms of financing scale Far ahead of other tracks with $424 million;
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4. Encrypted ecological tracking
1. NFTs
1) Market overview
1) Market overview
2) Dynamic focus
Last week, the NFT market sentiment continued to be cold, and the index of blue-chip projects also fell back. The total market value at this stage also continued to drop by 1.55%, and the market outlook is still not optimistic.
2) Dynamic focus
On September 7, metaverse architecture start-up Smobler Studios announced the completion of a $1.2 million seed round of financing, with participation from The Sandbox, accelerator and venture capital fund Brinc, and Web3 financing platform Enjinstarter. Smobler Studios promises to cooperate with The Sandbox to help brands and service providers conduct payment transactions more conveniently in the Metaverse world.
On September 8, the NFT minting platform Fair.xyz partnered with OpenSea to launch the soul-bound token Minter Token as a new way for creators to interact with their OG community. It can be directly integrated into smart contracts, allowing minting for NFT projects The author builds a closed experience and is compatible with all historical, current and future NFTs. Minter Token is a soul-bound token that cryptographically proves that a wallet owner minted an NFT, even if that owner has sold or transferred the digital asset. The tool analyzes the user's wallet and creates a 3D generated artwork showing the minted NFT. In the future, the Minter Token may expand to include other soul-bound token use cases such as proof of property ownership, physical artwork, or even shares in companies.
On September 10, London-based digital collection company Metadee announced that it will release five NFTs of the world's oldest surviving manuscripts of the Qur'an, written by Zayd ibn Thaabit, the personal scribe of the Prophet Muhammad. Currently, physical copies of Volumes 1 and 2 are being auctioned at a starting price of $25 million each, with the winning bidder receiving a physical copy and an NFT, while Volumes 3, 4, and 5 will be issued 1 million each NFT, each NFT sells for $200.
Starbucks mainly uses the NFT Pass scenario to optimize the traditional membership system. In the future, users who hold NFT will not only enjoy many offline rights, but also sell their own unique NFT. At present, the project has not yet been officially launched, but the whitelist application for US users has been opened on September 12. It can be seen from the white paper that Starbucks' NFT will be directly deployed on the Polygon chain, and can be purchased directly with a credit card without using an encrypted wallet.
2. GameFi blockchain games
overall review
https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/gaming
2. GameFi blockchain games
overall review
This week, mainstream tokens in the Gaming sector rebounded following the market, but underperformed ETH and mainstream public chains, and the overall market value ranking dropped.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Revolving_Games/status/1568232773516656641/photo/2
Project of the Week – Revolving Games
https://mobile.twitter.com/Revolving_Games/status/1568232773516656641/photo/3
Game developer Revolving Games announced the completion of a $13.2 million seed round of financing, led by Pantera Capital. Participating investors include Animoca Brands, Polygon, Dapper Labs and Rockstar Games founder Dan Houser, etc. This round of financing will be used to develop 3A-level blocks chain game.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Revolving_Games/status/1568232773516656641/photo/
The company's current development projects include Battlestar Galactica, a space-themed strategy MMO chain game in cooperation with Gala Games and NBCUniversal, and more details will be announced in the fourth quarter.
Another game is Skyborne Legacy, a Polygon-based social exploration and adventure MMORPG game. Its gameplay is similar to the combination of "Legend of Zelda" and "Animal Crossing Friends". , forging), housing, guild and other systems. The game is expected to release in October.
The founders of Revolving Games were founded by three brothers Saad, Ammar and Shayan Zaeem from Pakistan. They have 10+ years of working experience in the game industry. At present, Revolving Games has two studios with 100+ employees. The team composition is relatively diverse. They have participated in Well-known game projects such as "Star Trek Timeline", "Warhammer" and "Harry Potter: Hogwarts Mystery".
Judging from the current information, Revolving Games has almost obtained most of the necessary conditions for a successful game project, including: the support of first-line investment institutions, a development team composed of industry backbones, and game industry legends as consultants. As long as the quality of its first project passes the standard, it is expected to It will cause a round of heat.
1) Market overview
1) Market overview
2) Cosmos ecology
As of September 11, the overall lock-up volume (including staking) of each public chain was US$68.1 billion, an increase of 0.6% compared to last weekend, and the ranking of the top five public chains remained unchanged.
2) Cosmos ecology
Starting from September 9th, Stride, the pledged liquidity protocol in the Cosmos ecosystem, will start liquidity incentives on Osmosis, and provide its token STRD as an incentive at Pool#803 ATOM/stATOM for 45 days. A total of 375,000 STRDs will be released in total. About 8333 rewards per day. Affected by this, the TVL of Pool#803 increased rapidly, with an increase of more than 3 million US dollars within 4 days.
Referring to the price of STRD/OSMO in Pool#806, the price of STRD is about 2 US dollars. Based on this, it is estimated that this incentive activity will reward more than 160 million US dollars in a single day, and the income is considerable.
At this stage, there is no risk of impermanent loss in providing ATOM/stATOM liquidity as an LP, and you can enjoy 17% ATOM staking income + STRD token incentive income + 0.3% liquidity pool transaction fee. The main risk is that in extreme cases, if the liquidity in the secondary market is extremely lacking, users may still need to discount the price to withdraw from their held stATOM (similar to the liquidity crisis of stETH some time ago), but if they are willing to wait, users can still use Stride Exchange it back to its ATOM than one. In addition, users can also open contract short orders with the same exposure as their spot positions on the exchange to hedge the risk of ATOM price fluctuations. As long as the above-mentioned returns are higher than the funding rate of short orders for a long time, they can earn risk-free returns.
3) Key investment
Slide
Stride had completed a $6.7 million seed round of financing in early August, co-led by North Island VC, Distributed Global and Pantera Capital. Stride is expected to issue its token STRD at the end of September, at which time it will be airdropped to stakers of ATOM, OSMO, and JUNO. Stride will provide liquidity staking of more ecological POS assets such as OSMO, JUNO, EVMOS, etc. in the future.
3) Key investment
On September 9, DApp infrastructure company Slide announced the completion of a $12.3 million seed round of financing. This round of financing was led by Polychain Capital and Framework Ventures, with participation from Coinbase Ventures, Circle, and Outlander Ventures.
ENS DAO
Slide aims to create a user experience infrastructure for DApps. For example, it can lower the barriers to use for new web3 users, and supports one-click wallet creation, token purchase, and cross-chain transactions.
4. DAO Decentralized Autonomous Organization
On September 9th, ENS DAO released the [EP2.2.4] [Social] ENS Endaoment proposal. If the vote is passed, ENS DAO will look for a fund manager to manage its income and treasury. The fund manager needs to build a risk-neutral investment portfolio for ETH and USDC held by ENS DAO to ensure that it can continue to operate in the future when the core business income declines or economic conditions fluctuate.
The continuous income (unearned income in accounting) generated by the ENS domain name after the first year will also be continuously invested in the fund. The unearned income of 18,184 ETH that has been continuously invested is nearly 57 million US dollars.
Voting closes on September 14 and is expected to pass. Fund managers can apply to the administrator through the forum DM between September 15th and October 10th, and the application will be reviewed between October 10th and November 7th.
With the gradual development of DAO organizations, wealth management will be a huge growing demand. According to our consistent point of view in the weekly report, during this period, DAO infrastructure such as task management, human resource management, financial and wealth management, banking and other fields will generate better investment opportunities.
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JZL Capital is a professional organization registered overseas, focusing on blockchain ecological research and investment. The founder has rich experience in the industry. He has served as the CEO and executive director of many overseas listed companies, and has led and participated in eToro's global investment.
The team members are from top universities such as University of Chicago, Columbia University, University of Washington, Carnegie Mellon University, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Nanyang Technological University, and have served Morgan Stanley, Barclays Bank, Ernst & Young, KPMG, HNA Group , Bank of America and other well-known international companies.
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