Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: Long-short game in the market, the rise of meme coins

Foresight

特邀专栏作者

2022-09-04 10:30 (UTC+8)

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A list of the important news of the week.

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A list of the important news of the week.

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Overall monetary liquidity tightened. A senior Fed official delivered a hawkish speech, claiming that the interest rate will be raised above 4% early next year, and that there is no hope of a rate cut next year. The U.S. dollar index is hovering at fresh 20-year highs. Every recession in the US economy and the bursting of market bubbles are all caused by the Fed raising interest rates, without exception. The U.S. stock index fell by 4% in August, and the encryption market followed the adjustment of U.S. stocks.

The whole market

The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:

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1)GMX：The whole market

2)LUNC:The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:

3)BONEAfter the L2 Arbitrum upgrade, the gas fee is reduced and the throughput is increased by 7-10 times. The decentralized contract GMX holds 25% of Arbitrum's TVL. The market value of GMX has entered the top 100 and is close to a new high; the prices of DYDX and PERP on the same track have dropped by 90%. In the past 7 days, GMX’s fee income has exceeded UNISWAP, and its output will be halved in September.

: SHIBA plans to launch L2 of EVM in September-October. The SHIBA ecology includes SHIBA, LEASH and BONE. BONE will become Shibarium's GAS and become a deflation model. BONE will also become the governance token of the stable currency SHI. However, the circulation ratio of BONE is only 3%, and the risk of unlocking needs to be careful.

1) Data on the chain

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1) Data on the chain

2) Futures market

Long-term BTC holders are also feeling the pinch. Investors who held BTC for at least 6 months saw an average loss between -35% and -40%, but it was still not as severe as the peak loss of -50% in 2018. The bulls have also been unable to establish a meaningful uptrend despite not seeing a general loss of conviction among HODLers.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the index is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the index is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. The current indicator is -0.12, returning to the green bottom-buying range.

Futures funding rate: This week, the rate is mainly negative. BTC has ended the long-term bearish situation, and now it is starting to look bullish. ETH is completely the opposite. More investors are still holding on to bearish positions, which is likely to be related to the high exchange rate of ETH/BTC. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, is the short-term bottom of the market.