Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: The market bets on the merger of ETH, then music and dance

Foresight

特邀专栏作者

2022-08-17 15:46 (UTC+8)

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List of important news of the week;

AI Summary

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List of important news of the week;

market view

macro liquidity

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On-chain indicators

macro liquidity

On-chain indicators

BTC Long-Term Market Indicators

There is still no sign of external funds entering the market. The market value of stablecoins is the best basis for measuring the entry of funds. USDT continues to increase in a small amount, while USDC decreases in almost the same amount. The bigger possibility here is the exchange rate. The stimulation of external funds is a signal of whether the market will turn, and this signal has not yet appeared.

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BTC Long-Term Market Indicators

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the index is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the index is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. The current indicator is 0.11, which is still in the undervalued range at the bottom.

Futures funding rate: The funding rate was high last week, and it dropped significantly this week, indicating that there are more stop losses and liquidation by bulls during callbacks. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, is the short-term bottom of the market.

BTC trend analysis

Contract open interest: this week, the open interest dropped slightly, with little change. ETH contract volume is close to a new high, surpassing BTC for the first time in history. More and more traders buy ETH spot, and then hedge the contract to get the fork airdrop, and the arbitrage trading becomes crowded.

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BTC rose 7% this week, and the market rebounded strongly. The market is betting on the success of the ETH2.0 merger, with developers predicting a date of September 19th. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is up 50% since the June 2022 low. A large number of early DeFi leading projects have started to rise again, led by UNI, AAVE, SNX, etc., and the time dimension is well consistent with the ETH2.0 merger background. Public chain tracks (NEAR, AVAX, SOL, DOT) also rebounded following ETH. Perhaps it will take until BTC really stands firm at 25,000 before there will be a general rise in altcoins.

market data

The total lock-up volume of the public chain

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Proportion of TVL of each public chain

This week, the overall TVL rose by 1.6B, an increase of 2.3%. During the same period, BTC rose by 3.3%, and ETH rose by 10.97%, which was far less than the increase of mainstream tokens.

2) BSC lock-up volume

1) ETH lock-up volume

2) BSC lock-up volume

3) Tron lock-up volume

4) Solana lock-up volume

5) Avalanche lockup volume

6) Polygon lock-up volume

5) Avalanche lockup volume

History of ETH Gas fee

The current on-chain transfer fee is about $0.72, the Uniswap transaction fee is about $2.44, and the Opensea transaction fee is about $0.95. This week, Gas Price bottomed out and has a gradual upward trend. The mean is 27.