JZL capital Blockchain Industry Weekly Report No. 32:: The merger of Ethereum is imminent, and the market is negative and passivated
Overview of the week
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Overview of the week"chaotik "A total of $190 million was lost under the attack, with as many as 40 beneficiary wallets.
1. Industry dynamics last week
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1. Industry dynamics last week
The encryption market has entered a consolidation this week. After Bitcoin rose for four consecutive weeks, it made a slight correction this week. As of writing, BTC closed at 23136.4, down 2.67% from last week. ETH performed relatively strongly, closing at 1704.81, only a correction of 0.42 during the week %. Whether it is Pelosi's visit to Taiwan this week or the release of non-agricultural data on Friday, it has not had much impact on the overall encryption market, and the overall market is still in a trend of bottoming out. The strength of Ethereum comes from the fact that Ethereum developer Tim Beiko confirmed on Twitter that Ethereum’s last testnet upgrade before the mainnet officially entered PoS: the Goerli upgrade will occur between 8/6-8/12, after which At any point in time, the Ethereum mainnet may enter a new era.
On 8/2 of this week, the cross-chain bridge project Nomad was hacked and stolen, and this incident was one of the few incidents that ordinary people could operate or even "participate in". The assets pledged in the project have been evacuated, and there are as many as more than 40 income wallets and there are many addresses associated with KYC addresses, with a loss of close to 200 million US dollars.
The Nasdaq opened lower and moved higher on Friday. The positive line for 8 consecutive days indicates that the market seems to be returning strongly. On August 5, the US non-agricultural data was released, which once again exceeded expectations. It has doubled more than expected, and the unemployment rate has reached a new low of 3.5%. This figure should greatly strengthen the message that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates without affecting employment. The factors that the Fed decides on interest rates are nothing more than two , One is the price and the other is employment. The non-agricultural data not only did not decline during this period of interest rate hikes, but also surpassed the previous few months in terms of data. The job market is quite optimistic, so the market immediately speculated on this non-agricultural data. A substantial rate hike of 75 basis points, and before 8/5, the market generally believes that there will be no third rate hike of 75 basis points, and the inflection point of interest rate hikes is approaching. The interest rate hike is a bit one-sided, but the price of risk assets is indeed driven by the game of various market news. In addition, a new round of CPI data will be released on 8/10. Oil prices, an important component of CPI, have fallen back in July and are still on the rise. It fell below US$90 in August/4, and the CPI may also fall in July. The price index launched in August and September may be more instructive for the interest rate hike in September. The US stock market has the opportunity to stand firm for half a year average platform.
2. Macro and technical analysis
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In the short term, the market did not fall sharply for non-agricultural exceeding expectations, indicating that the overall negative interest has begun to passivate, and it is relatively sensitive to the positive. The key time of this month is the CPI announcement on Wednesday and the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting.
ETH rebounded strongly from the bottom, and the follow-up trend is likely to follow BTC.
BTC stood at 22,000 USDT and started to trade sideways. It may choose a direction after the announcement of the CPI. If the CPI exceeds expectations, the trend may be down first and then up.
ETH rebounded strongly from the bottom, and the follow-up trend is likely to follow BTC.
Nasdaq has basically rebounded 20% from the bottom, and under optimistic expectations, there is still room for up to 15%.
U.S. bond interest rate: 2-year U.S. bond sideways Because non-farm payrolls were stronger than expected on Friday, the overall jump jumped, which directly reflected the expectation of three interest rate hikes of 125bp in the next three years in 2022.
Ahr999: 0.43, this position is not as cost-effective as before, but still has a certain cost-effectiveness.
MVRV: 1.039, the cost performance is the same as Ahr999.
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3. Summary of investment and financing
1) Investment and financing review
3. Summary of investment and financing
1) Investment and financing review
According to Dove Metrics data, there will be 160 public investment and financing events in the encryption field in July 2022, a month-on-month decrease of 16% (191 cases in June 2022), and a year-on-year increase of 54% (a total of 104 cases in June 2021);
In July 2022, the total financing of investment and financing was US$100 million, a decrease of 48% month-on-month (US$3.67 billion in June 2022), and a year-on-year decrease of 42% (US$3.31 billion in July 2021). July 2022 is the first financing amount since this year There was a negative growth year-on-year;
In addition to the Cefi project, the projects with the highest investment and financing amount are:
2) Institution-exchange market share review this week
Coinbase（Coin.USDuring the reporting period, Binance dominated other exchanges with a market share of more than 75%, ranking first in spot trading volume and its market share is still rising;
3) Institution of the week - Coinbase, helping BlackRock expand its crypto footprint
This cooperation will set the list for the cooperation between the world's top asset management institutions such as Fedelity, Vanguard, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and crypto exchanges, and bring huge institutional funds to crypto. At the same time, it also promoted the listing progress of FTX. US and Binance. US. After all, when institutions allocate funds, they first consider the safety of funds, and they prefer to choose mature and stable trading platforms. There is no doubt that a listing background with stricter supervision will be the first choice for its cooperation.
4. Encrypted ecological tracking
1. NFTs
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4. Encrypted ecological tracking
1) Dynamic summary
In the past week, the overall NFT market capitalization and market capacity continued a slight correction trend. As the core element of Web3, NFT has also maintained its market volatility, and its future trend is still unclear.
2) Focus on Dynamics
On July 21, Moonbirds’ airdrop NFT series Moonbirds Oddities, as a pet of Moonbirds, has a current floor price of 0.98 ETH and a total transaction volume of 14,400 ETH. The rarity attribute of each Oddities is consistent with the original corresponding Moonbirds.
Moonbirds founder Kevin Rose tweeted on August 5 that both Moonbirds and Oddities are moving to the CC0 protocol and will establish MoonbirdsDAO. It is reported that the DAO will oversee the general licensing of the Moonbirds and Oddities trademarks, with the main goal of encouraging general commercialization while preventing scams, hate speech and violence. Community members can expect to see changes to the project's terms of service and website in the coming days. The Moonbirds team will also host a Q&A session at the Moonbirds Council Twitter Spaces on 5 August.
On August 4th, the luxury brand Prada is launching a new Timecapsule NFT series, selling shirts for a limited time of 24 hours and giving away NFTs. Shirts are made from a variety of Prada’s recycled fabrics, with prints by artist Jeanne Detallante inspired by Frankenstein.
On August 4, Starbucks founder Howard Schultz announced at the earnings conference that he plans to launch a web3-based loyalty program in September, which will include coffee-themed NFTs. Howard Schultz said that a web3-based loyalty program could be seen as a way to attract younger consumers to the brand, building on the current rewards model and combining the digital Starbucks rewards ecosystem with the digital Starbucks brand. Collection.
3) Key investment
The recent rapid entry of brand giants has allowed the market to see the huge potential of the combination of NFT and real consumer demand, but we still have an observational attitude towards how much substantive impact the marketing of changes in gameplay can bring to the market.
As more and more brands will conduct global sales and confirmation of rights online and on the chain, the corresponding infrastructure demand will also gradually increase. In the future, we may soon see the emergence of leading projects in this track or field, which will serve as a catalyst for the industry Formulate relevant standards.
2. GameFi blockchain games
overall review
2. GameFi blockchain games
overall review
Last week, the performance of mainstream tokens in the Gaming sector was mediocre, and there was no outstanding performance in the short-term high-level consolidation of the market. It is expected to follow the market to continue to rebound after the callback, but the strength is difficult to surpass ETH and the hot track.
Project of the week – Halliday
On August 5, Halliday, an NFT installment purchase service company, completed a $6 million seed round of financing, led by a16z, with participation from Hashed, A.Capital, and SV Angel. Halliday mainly provides users with "buy now, pay later" services.
Since some chain games (such as StepN) require users to purchase the corresponding NFT assets in advance to participate in the game, and the cost of NFT is usually high, which restricts some players with low purchasing power from participating in the game (also gave birth to game guilds and other NFT rentals), Halliday is working on solving this pain point. Through the integration with game projects and NFT marketplace, users can checkout through Halliday, obtain NFT asset mapping (similar to packaging assets) with zero down payment + installment payment, and directly participate in the game. After all payments are paid, NFT assets will be real transferred to the user. Halliday plans to charge users an initial fee to cover the startup's costs for using the product, but will phase out that fee over time.
Halliday divides the use rights and ownership of NFT assets, trying to solve the pain points of NFT asset leasing and repurchase. By lowering the capital threshold of the game, on the one hand, the flow of game projects is increased, and on the other hand, the pressure on users' funds is reduced. If the user cannot pay the arrears, Halliday will take back the right to use the NFT assets, and it will be difficult for the user to obtain Halliday services again later.
Halliday is expected to launch a beta version of cooperation with "League of Kingdoms" (also invested by a16z and Hashed) in the next few weeks, and will gradually integrate more game projects for cooperation.
We believe that the market prospect of this project is good, similar to the business model of a financial leasing company, it is expected to become one of the infrastructures of the chain game industry. At the same time, if the form of NFT financialization is adopted in the future, it can overcome the capital scale limit and rapidly expand the scale.
However, Halliday faces the following uncertainties at the same time: 1) If the chain game industry develops to the Free to play model in the future, the market prospect will face challenges; 2) It is necessary to establish a sound risk control model and credit database (good for on-chain data analysis) To avoid more defaults and bad debts; 3) The price of NFT assets usually fluctuates greatly and the life cycle of blockchain games is usually short. If a bear market occurs, users may default on a large scale during the repayment period.
3. Infrastructure
The TVL of each public chain remained volatile after the recent market rebound, and the overall lock-up volume (including staking) was 78.3 billion US dollars, a slight increase from last weekend.
4. DAO Decentralized Autonomous Organization
Debt DAO
The recent SOL theft incident caused by the Slope wallet has affected Solana’s position to a certain extent. Last week, TVL had a large retracement compared to the industry average. At this stage, it is in the fifth place that is about to be overtaken by Polygon. Recently, the continuous development momentum of Avalanche and Polygon is still strong, and they have made good breakthroughs in development and cooperation respectively. The focus is that they have shown better security than other high-performance public chains, which also ensures the attention in the bear market.
4. DAO Decentralized Autonomous Organization
On August 1, Debt DAO, a DAO financing solution, completed a $3.5 million seed round of financing, led by Dragonfly Capital, with participation from institutions such as GSR, Numeus, Fasanara Capital, and individual investors such as Balaji Srinivasan (former CTO of Coinbase).
Debt DAO mainly provides DAO organizations with financing services based on their income, and solves the pain point of the current lack of debt credit financing services for DAO organizations. Through cash flow-based financing, DAO organizations can complete financing to supplement working capital without selling their native tokens.
Debt DAO provides loan services through an on-chain income mortgage smart contract called Spigot, which has the following characteristics: 1) Mortgage based on income cash flow, which improves the over-collateralization model of traditional on-chain lending agreements and improves capital efficiency; 2) restructuring process Avoid liquidation due to short-term market fluctuations and reduce the risk of liquidation losses; 3) There is no need to pay attention to market fluctuations in token prices, and the borrower only needs to ensure that the principal and interest are repaid as agreed.
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JZL Capital is a professional organization registered overseas, focusing on blockchain ecological research and investment. The founder has rich experience in the industry. He has served as the CEO and executive director of many overseas listed companies, and has led and participated in eToro's global investment.
The team members are from top universities such as University of Chicago, Columbia University, University of Washington, Carnegie Mellon University, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Nanyang Technological University, and have served Morgan Stanley, Barclays Bank, Ernst & Young, KPMG, HNA Group , Bank of America and other well-known international companies.
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