Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: No bad news is good news

Foresight

特邀专栏作者

2022-07-31 10:00 (UTC+8)

This article is about 1981 words, reading the full article takes about 3 minutes

List of important news of the week;

AI Summary

Expand

List of important news of the week;

market view

macro liquidity

secondary title

On-chain indicators

macro liquidity

On-chain indicators

BTC Long-Term Market Indicators

BTC is currently in the middle and late stages of the bear market, and it may usher in accumulation in Q4 at the earliest. During the three halving cycles, the maximum retracement of BTC was 94%, 86% and 84% respectively, while the maximum decline of BTC in this round is 74%, and the price still has a certain room for decline.

secondary title

BTC Long-Term Market Indicators

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the index is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the index is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. The current indicator is 0.06, which is not as high as the average level in previous bear market cycles. This could mean further downside or consolidation time is needed to establish a bottom. However, it may also indicate that BTC has received a greater degree of investor support in this bear market.

Futures funding rate: This week's funding rate is all positive but the value is not large. Relatively, there are more investors who are bullish. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, is the short-term bottom of the market.

BTC trend analysis

Contract open interest: The open interest has increased significantly this week, and the market will fluctuate greatly. There are many contract liquidations, mainly short positions.

secondary title

BTC trend analysis

BTC has experienced a V-shaped rebound this week, and the short-term momentum is favorable. But it remains weighed down by longer-term macro indicators that may take time to form a solid bottom. After the market completes the stage rebound target, it is expected to fall again and make a second bottom. Then in Q1 next year, the United States is expected to release water again, starting a new round of cycle. The biggest variable is the political changes caused by the mid-term elections in the United States, or economic policy changes.

secondary title

Top 100 plate rises and falls

BTC fell 2% this week. ETH led the market, and projects related to the merger with ETH 2.0 have achieved relatively large gains. The opportunities brought by ETH to POS may include:

5) Defi: Long-term benefits to basic DeFi projects. ENS (domain name NFT craze again), UNI, AAVE, SNX, CRV, etc.

market data

The total lock-up volume of the public chain

secondary title

Proportion of TVL of each public chain

With the rebound of the market, the overall TVL continued to rise by 5.01B, an increase of 5.84%, still converging with BTC and slightly lower than ETH.

secondary title

Proportion of TVL of each public chain

The ETH market continues to rise, driving the proportion of the ETH chain to continue to rise, up 1.2% in a single week; in addition, the OP chain is also benefited from the sharp increase in the short-term market, and the proportion of TVL rose by 0.14% in a single week, an increase of 29.7%. , the distance from the top ten is small, and it is worthy of attention in the short term.

secondary title

The lock-up amount of each chain agreement

1. ETH lock-up volume

2. BSC lock-up volume

3. Tron lock-up volume

4. Solana lock-up volume

7. Fantom lockup volume

History of ETH Gas fee

The current on-chain transfer fee is about $0.85, the Uniswap transaction fee is about $2.88, and the Opensea transaction fee is about $1.12. Gas price has dropped to the lowest level in half a year. However, due to the large increase in the price of ETH, the actual fee on the chain has risen slightly.