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Galois Capital: What happens after Ethereum merges?

深潮TechFlow
特邀专栏作者
This article is about 1366 words, reading the full article takes about 2 minutes
What will happen to miners, exchanges, USDT & stETH after Ethereum merges
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What will happen to miners, exchanges, USDT & stETH after Ethereum merges

Original compilation: TechFlow intern

Original compilation: TechFlow intern

first level title

Who will the miners support?

It depends on the price of ETC VS the expected price of ETH1, but I guess ETH1 is worth more.Fundamentally speaking, ETH1 has more infrastructure and contracts than ETC, which is an advantage, but when it forks, it will also experience chaos in DeFi, which is a disadvantage.

ETH1 may retain more value than ETC after chaos subsidesfirst level title

Is it very likely that USDT will choose ETH1 instead of ETH2?

is very big. While USDT (followed by USDC and WBTC) are most likely to choose ETH2, there is a good chance they will choose ETH1 as well.First of all, Tether/Bitfinex does not wish to incur legal liability or lawsuits themselves.

If there are flaws or vulnerabilities in PoS that cannot be detected on the testnet, this may make the issuer of the stablecoin liable, but with ETH1, they already know it all. At the same time, someone will definitely try to redeem USDT on ETH1. If there is a problem in this process, they will most likely take the stablecoin issuer to court. While it's pointless, it's an inexpensive and highly rewarding option (if it works).

first level title

How do exchanges handle contracts and options?

Probably most will choose ETH2, because it is easier than doing a basket of indices, and the three major exchanges (Kraken, Bitfinex, Poloniex) with margin positions have each chosen different ways to handle this matter.

Between borrowers, lenders, longs, and shorts, some of them choose to be short, and each exchange chooses a different role.

How to make a basket index? Just think of it as an ETF with two equally weighted components, similar to FTX's ALT and SHIT indices.

By the way, let's talk about borrowing. There are usually some triggers after which the forked asset must be repaid. Unfortunately or fortunately, one of the standard branches explicitly references the hash rate.

21e97b67b509b10642e01cfb19fe578.png

Also, legally, depending on the language, you can make an argument like this:first level title

ee4a41bfe374b13d47b2430cc1c71d5.png

What will happen to stETH?

It will return to zero on ETH1. stETH cannot be redeemed for ETH on ETH1. Therefore, the greater the expected value of ETH1, the greater the difference for stETH.This spread has widened over the past day.

There are other considerations for the stETH discount, but now there is one more factor.Roughly speaking, I think a 2% illiquidity discount offset by yield and a 4% discount on ETH1 seem fair at the moment. So that's a total of 6% off in my current view.

We have a lot of other topics to talk about, historically, whether forks add value or destroy value, especially in this case, on the problem of oracles solving DeFi, on the price discovery of oracles in CeFi, on The same is true for the issue of on-chain lending pools.Original link

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