Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: The merger of Ethereum is imminent, the market bottoms out and rebounds Market opinion

Foresight

特邀专栏作者

2022-07-25 15:00 (UTC+8)

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List of important news of the week in the market.

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List of important news of the week in the market.

market view

macro liquidity

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On-chain indicators

macro liquidity

Overall monetary liquidity tightened. The long-term inflation in the United States is likely to peak and fall, giving the market a chance to breathe. The Federal Reserve announced in time to raise interest rates by 75 basis points instead of 100 basis points at the end of July. The market sentiment has improved, and both the US stock market and the crypto market have ushered in a sharp rebound. The current macro situation in the United States has not improved substantially. Under optimistic circumstances, it is expected that the Fed will not cut interest rates until Q1 in 23 years.

On-chain indicators are yet to signal a medium-term price reversal. The volume of retail addresses of 1-10BTC continued to grow significantly to a new high. The amount of addresses >1kBTC has decreased significantly. It is estimated that more exchanges are frequently mobilizing chips in cold wallets to cope with the increasing withdrawal behavior. Hot money holders with coins less than 3 months old have dropped to 20%, close to the level of the 2015/18 recovery phase. The bottom of the bear market is the process of BTC transferring from those with weak beliefs to those with firm beliefs.

BTC Long-Term Market Indicators

BTC price rebounds after hitting production costs. The electricity mining cost to mine 1 BTC has consistently represented the price floor for BTC over the past 5 years (December 2018, March 2020, most recently in June 2022). Mining costs are currently estimated at a little over $16,000.

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BTC Long-Term Market Indicators

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the index is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the index is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. A number of signals suggest that a true bottom formation may be in progress, with the current indicator at -0.07.

Futures funding rate: From the data of the past two years, it can be seen that the funding rate this week is only in a relatively normal and slightly bullish trend. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, is the short-term bottom of the market.

BTC trend analysis

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Top 100 plate rises and falls

BTC rebounded sharply by 13% this week. Due to market speculation that ETH2.0 will be merged in September, ETH will lead to a sharp rebound in the market, and valuable altcoins will gain rare trading opportunities. Traders bet on the LDO of the ETH2.0 concept, and the L2 network MATIC and OP followed suit. MATIC has been actively building recently, such as cooperating with Disney and launching zkEVM on July 21.

market data

The total lock-up volume of the public chain

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Proportion of TVL of each public chain

2) BSC lock-up volume

The lock-up amount of each chain agreement

1) ETH lock-up volume

2) BSC lock-up volume

3) Tron lock-up volume

4) Solana lock-up volume

5) Avalanche lockup volume

6) Polygon lock-up volume

3) Tron lock-up volume

4) Solana lock-up volume

7) Fantom lockup volume

History of ETH Gas fee

The current on-chain transfer fee is about $0.76, the Uniswap transaction fee is about $2.59, and the Opensea transaction fee is about $1.01. The market is picking up, but the on-chain transactions are not frequent, and more users may be watching.