Valuing avatar-like NFTs: Taking the bubble-shattered MekaVerse NFTs as an example

This article comes fromDapprader, original author: Pedro Herrera

Odaily Translator |

This article comes from

, original author: Pedro Herrera

In the more than a month since the MekaVerse NFT launched, the hype that once surrounded the NFT series seems to have died down. When the bubble disappeared and the instant utility of the NFT was not recognized, the floor price of this NFT series plummeted from nearly 10 ETH to the current 1 ETH. If we are still considering it as the first collection object, then we can't help but think objectively: how to value MekaVerse NFT?

MekaVerse is a collection of 8,888 randomly generated NFT avatars on the Ethereum blockchain, inspired by the term "mechas" used in Japanese culture to describe giant humanoid robots piloted by humans, and one of the most anticipated NFT series . The Mekas have an attractive design and a great nostalgic feel for those who love anime like Gundam, Evangelion, or modern movies like Pacific Rim.

In fact, the following factors are considered in the valuation process of any NFT collection: First, in order to analyze each piece individually, we will consider its uniqueness and rarity. While there is correlation between works of art, it is actually a very subjective thing. Next, in order to analyze collectibles as an NFT project, we considered different factors, including what will be useful when you own one or more works; and the community around the project, the team behind it, and the collection product distribution. It is important to take these factors into account as projects will naturally develop over time.

secondary title

MekaVerse: Collectibles Overview

In order to avoid a "Gas fee war", the MekaVerse team decided to ensure fairness through a lottery, while allowing anyone to mint coins at a price of 0.2 ETH. The lottery was held on October 7, 2021, with 5,453 holders Those who minted nearly 8,600 Meka. After the casting was completed, the price of MekaVerse NFT was once as high as 9 ETH in the secondary market. However, due to some problems with Meka's high-quality 3D drawing function, the release of MekaVerse NFT was delayed for a week.

Afterwards though, some rumors about a fair draw began to circulate on social media. In fact, the rumor was sparked by a tweet suggesting that there was unfair insider information because there were wallets targeting specific Mekas that had a high value. Insider news in the NFT field suddenly became a hot topic at the time. In fact, just a few weeks ago, a well-known member of OpenSea was involved in such a scandal. As the rumors spread, the price of Mekas began to spiral down. Of course, it can only be used as a pure avatar, and its lack of practicality is also a major reason for the price drop.

The floor price of Mekas plummeted all the way to 1 ETH, and it has remained so for at least two weeks. Despite this recent series of events, MekaVerse is still ranked 15th in the NFT trading volume rankings, having collected more than $153.5 million in funding in the 35 days since its launch.

secondary title

Meka Feature Analysis

The following analysis is based on more than 9,000 transaction data from MekaVerse, including 5,103 Mekas sold on the secondary market. Although there are more than 3,000 Mekas that have not been tracked, we believe that the selected samples are relatively statistically representative , and thus can be used to identify specific patterns for that NFT item.

The 8,888 Mekas are randomly generated from a combination of 10 attributes, including 236 different characteristics and color palettes. It is worth mentioning that among the 8,888 Mekas, 4 are already in the Legendary state and belong to different categories, so we do not take them as the object of analysis.

Analyzing characteristics in isolation can give us a general idea of ​​how rarity works for each object. In addition, this method of analysis can also give us the opportunity to discover the characteristics of those collections that sell for high prices.

One of the most obvious properties in the MekaVerse is the type property. In randomly generated collections, hierarchical classification is usually the first attribute to be evaluated. In MekaVerse, according to the rarity, there are 4 different Mekas, namely: OG Meka (50.31%), Mirage (21.46%), Gādian (16.29%) and F9 (11.88%).

After analyzing sales and distinguishing between different types of Meka, we found that this variable changes with price. As expected, the average selling price of the OG Meka ($17,000) is generally lower than that of the F9 ($25,530). This also matches the rarity of the different types of Meka mentioned earlier.

However, the price difference between the different grades does not necessarily correspond to the rarity. Let's look at an example just after the metadata disclosure (October 15th), OG Mekas sold for an average of $9,203 while F9s sold for an average of $15,288 just after the metadata disclosure. It can be clearly seen that the prices of some grades of Meka collections are declining. Overall, the rarity distribution is consistent with the price distribution trend.

Among the remaining attributes, we then analyze the "weapon" attribute. Surprisingly, even though 76.6% of Mekas were unarmed, this feature was not necessarily a factor in the price differences seen in the collection.

In this case, the schema did not change significantly before and after metadata disclosure. Mekas without weapons sell for about $12,800. And rarer weapons like MI Rayguns (1.41%), OG Kannons (2.1%) or OG Smiley K1 (0.92%), despite their high rarity, trade for less than $14,000 on average. On the other hand, Mi Utopia (0.14%) and OG Cannon Brick (0.27%) had ASPs of US$85,000 and US$101,000, respectively. It's worth noting that the weapon doesn't inflate the value of Gādian and F9 in Meka, as opposed to OG and Mirage.

Material is another important attribute that carries considerable weight when estimating Meka price. Some of the rarest characters in the MekaVerse series, the materials used mainly include Full Gold (0.07%), Full Silver (0.12%) and Sky (0.18%). Undoubtedly, works containing these materials have the highest average sales, with MekaVerse floors using the "Sky" material reaching 18 ETH, while MekaVerse floors using the Full Gold and Full Silver materials cost 50 ETH and 60 ETH, respectively.

In addition to level rarity, Meka's color characteristics are another factor that affects price. Light green (4.55%) and yellow (6.24%) Meka have a higher average selling price, and it should be noted that these two colors only appear in OG Meka. In addition, black (5.37%) and dark brown (15.97%) Meka sales prices are relatively high.

The remaining Meka attributes generally do not affect the price, but there are some exceptions, for example: the floor price of Mekas containing OG Glowing Eyes Brick (0.4%), OG Eyes Brick (0.52%) or MI Red Visor (0.41%) is higher than Other products in this series. The floor price of OG series Meka is at least 6 ETH, the base price of Red Visor Mirages is 3.5 ETH, and the average net income of a single sale of OG Helmet Brick (0.97%) can reach $80,000.

All in all, the analysis of Meka characteristics can provide some information for valuation, and some combination characteristics also play a very important role. Mekas with certain special combination traits are also quite expensive compared to their rarity. As mentioned earlier, rarity is an important indicator of the potential value of an NFT work, but there are other factors to consider if you want to assess the value of a complete collection.

secondary title

Practical Value Analysis

After analyzing the characteristics of evaluating Mekas individually, we continue to study other factors that affect its collection value from a macro perspective. Over time, these factors will also become the key foundation of the project, so it is worth paying attention to.

Previously, MekaVerse has announced that it will launch an airdrop (possibly following the practice of Larva Labs, the team behind CryptoPunks). Owners of Meka NFT will have the opportunity to get the second NFT series of the project, MekaBots. It is reported that the airdrop ratio is 1:1, but currently Snapshot information has not been released yet.

In addition to the release of Meka Bots, the MekaVerse development roadmap has some other interesting milestones that, if some go well, will further increase the utility of the project. For example, Mekaverse plans to launch a 3D printing service that can turn each Meka into a physical figure, and may also release some peripheral merchandise and clothing for the project.

It is worth noting that the future of the MekaVerse project is still up in the air. So far, the project does not have a very bright practicality. If a MekaVerse-centric earning-by-playing game can be introduced in the next stage, there may be a breakthrough.

secondary title

The MekaVerse community and the team behind it

Not only that, but the performance of the MekaVerse Discord community does not seem to be satisfactory. In October of this year, the Discord community of the project had nearly 245,000 members, but due to continuous negative growth, more than 30,000 members left the group. As of now, the number of members of the Discord community of MekaVerse is about 211,000 members, but even so, MekaVerse is still One of the largest communities in the Discord NFT space.

The team behind the MekaVerse project is another important valuation factor. Mattey Braccini and Matty Braccini are the co-founders of MekaVerse. Both are 3D artists in Paris. They have been working in the NFT field before the project was launched. Their works can be found in Access within the MekaVerse website. In addition, the MekaVerse core team members also include digital artist and NFT collector Julien Dorland, who is currently the team's event host on social platforms.

While the rumors about fair distribution may not have been perfectly resolved, the fact that the core and founding team are fully open is a positive.

The first thing to focus on is the independent wallet indicator. At the time of writing, 5.134 independent wallets hold at least one Meka, and the proportion of MekaVerse independent holders is 57.82%. 57.53%.

Summarize

Next, let's analyze whether there is a "monopolistic whale" problem in MekaVerse. It is said that the top 5 MekaVerse holders only have 182 Meka in their wallets, and the "Giant Whale Concentration Index" is only 2.04%, which means that the project The degree of decentralization is high, but given that MekaVerse is a newly launched NFT series, this is currently the case.

secondary title

Summarize