Who is buying Dogecoin? More than 80% of the trading volume comes from stablecoin trading pairs, and domestic users are the main buyers
"To the moon" is a jargon in the circle, which means that the currency price soars into the sky.
But the joke is about to come true. In early April, Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that SpaceX would use SpaceX to bring a DOGE (Dogecoin) to the moon. Since then, DOGE has started a rapid rise mode. After breaking through $0.1 on April 14, it hit a record high price of $0.43 on April 19. The price of the currency soared by 336% in just one week. The return on investment soared directly from 113% to 587%, and the market value ranking also entered the top ten.
Behind the popularity of DOGE, what are the changes in the data on the Dogecoin chain that are worthy of attention? As an imitation currency of BTC, how is DOGE currently developing compared with BTC? Who is buying DOGE? How does social media popularity affect currency prices? After analyzing the market data and on-chain data of DOGE this year, PAData found that:
1) From the perspective of income performance, the rapid rise of DOGE started in mid-April this year. The overall price increase of this year exceeded 7045%, while BTC only increased by 90% during the same period. The sharp rise in DOGE caused its 30-day rate of return to rise from 65% to 587%, and reached 941% at one point, reversing the previous trend of a modest rise.
2) From the perspective of the source of trading volume, the main buyers of this round of DOGE may come from China. The trading volume of the three exchanges Binance, OKEx, and Huobi accounted for more than 60% of the total trading volume of DOGE, and the transaction of the DOGE/USDT trading pair The proportion of the total transaction volume is as high as 78%, which is much higher than the cumulative 9% transaction volume of DOGE and TRY, USD, EUR and other fiat currency trading pairs. Within the market scope covered by the three exchanges, the market that needs to use stablecoins as a trading medium is mainly the domestic market, which may mean that the main buyers of DOGE are domestic users.
3) Judging from the data on the chain, the activity of Dogecoin on the chain has increased significantly this month. In April, the number of daily active addresses increased by 37.81% month-on-month, the daily average settlement amount increased by 1258.02% month-on-month, and the daily average transaction fee per transaction increased by 114 times.
4) Judging from the popularity of the media and the currency price trend of DOGE, Twitter and Google search indexes are both positively correlated with the currency price trend in the past week, and have the strongest positive correlation with the currency price of the day. Especially in April, the number of tweets is strongly correlated with the currency price trend within a week, and the Pearson coefficient between the number of tweets and the price of DOGE in different time periods exceeds 0.7.
5) The correlation between the spread heat and the currency price in different time periods does not show the characteristics of increasing or decreasing over time, which means that the influence of the spread heat on the currency price in different time periods has a certain randomness .
DOGE has risen 7000% this year,
80% of trading volume comes from stablecoin trading volume pairs
Since the beginning of this year, DOGE has risen from $0.0057 at the beginning of the year (January 1) to the current $0.4073 (April 19), with an overall increase of 7045.61%, much higher than the 89.71% increase in BTC prices during the same period.
The rapid rise of DOGE actually began in April this year. According to statistics, since April, DOGE has soared from $0.062 to $0.407, an increase of about 557.04%. The biggest one-day increase during the period was 101.49% on April 16. On that day, DOGE rose from $0.1816 at the opening to $0.3659 at the close.
Affected by the rapid increase in currency prices, DOGE's 30-day return on investment this year has changed from last year's basically stable situation, showing a significant upward trend. According to statistics, last year, DOGE's 30-day rate of return rose from -10.7% to 42.6%, an overall increase of about 53 percentage points, with an annual average of about 7.3%, showing a steady rise throughout the year. This year, DOGE’s 30-day rate of return soared from 64.7% to 586.6%, an overall increase of about 521 percentage points, with an annual average of about 211.1%. The annual rate of return has a clear upward trend, but fluctuates greatly. During the same period, BTC’s income was more stable, and the 30-day return rate fluctuated less. Last year, the average 30-day return rate of BTC was about 11.7%, and this year’s average was about 33.6%, an increase of only about 22 percentage points.
Where does DOGE's upward momentum this year mainly come from? Judging from the composition of DOGE secondary market trading volume, the main funds may come from domestic sources. According to the distribution of DOGE trading volume on the exchanges, currently, Binance, OKEx and Huobi Global are the three major trading markets, accounting for 34.64%, 14.19% and 11.38% of the trading volume respectively, and the cumulative proportion is about 60.21%. If the trading volume of ZB.COM, Gate.io, Kucoin, FTX, Biki, MXC.COM and other exchanges is added, then the trading volume of these exchanges dominated by domestic users will account for 68.53% of the total DOGE trading volume %.
In addition, judging from the proportion of the transaction volume of DOGE’s main trading pairs, currently, the transaction volume of DOGE/USDT accounts for about 78.65%. Pairs will account for more than 80% of the total transaction volume. On the contrary, the cumulative trading volume of DOGE and fiat currency pairs such as USD and EUR is only about 9%. Within the scope of markets covered by Binance, OKEx, and Huobi Global, the market that needs to use stablecoins as a trading medium is mainly the domestic market, which may also mean that the main buyers of DOGE are domestic users.
The number of DOGE daily active addresses increased by 38% month-on-month,
The average monthly settlement amount increased by 1258% month-on-month
Driven by the good market performance of DOGE, the activity on the chain of the underlying network Dogecoin has also been comprehensively and significantly improved.
From the perspective of user scale, the daily average number of active addresses on the chain of Dogecoin exceeded 100,000 in April, reaching about 124,900, which is about 1/9 of the average daily number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network during the same period. Although there is still a large gap between Dogecoin and Bitcoin in terms of the absolute number of active addresses, the average daily active addresses of Dogecoin have grown rapidly, unlike the trend of steady decline in the average daily active addresses of the Bitcoin network this year. The average number of active addresses increased by 37.81% month-on-month compared with the average value of the previous month.
Compared with the number of active addresses, the number of transactions on Dogecoin's daily chain has increased more significantly. According to statistics, the number of transactions on the Dogecoin chain this year has increased from 34,600 at the beginning of the year to 70,900 at present, with an overall increase of about 104.91%. Among them, the increase in April was about 51.92%. During the same period, the number of daily bitcoin transactions on the chain dropped from 261,300 to 207,300, an overall drop of about 20.67%.
If the ratio of the monthly average daily active addresses to the daily average number of transactions is considered comprehensively, it can be found that since the beginning of this year, the number of transactions per 10,000 active addresses of Dogecoin has slightly increased from 4210.53 to 4467.57, an increase of about 6.10%. The number of Bitcoin transactions per 10,000 active addresses dropped slightly from 2836.81 to 2559.02, a drop of about 9.79%. Overall, the activity of active addresses in both networks remained basically stable, but the activity of Dogecoin active addresses increased slightly.
Another point worth paying attention to is that recently, the total settlement amount of Dogecoin on the chain has surpassed that of Bitcoin many times. For example, on April 16, 17, and 19, the total amount of Dogecoin’s on-chain settlements in these three days was about 64.92 billion U.S. dollars, 22.93 billion U.S. dollars, and 47.73 billion U.S. dollars, while the total amount of Bitcoin’s on-chain settlements on the same day was about 50.98 billion U.S. dollars. billion, $20.96 billion, and $27.87 billion.
Dogecoin has seen a big increase in total monthly on-chain settlements this year, although this may be temporary. According to statistics, in April this year, Dogecoin’s daily average on-chain settlement totaled approximately US$11.0 billion, an increase of 1258.02% month-on-month from the average value in March, equivalent to a 13.5-fold increase. During the same period, Bitcoin has increased by 24.96%.
Active on-chain transaction activity also boosts the income of Dogecoin miners. This year, the transaction fee of Dogecoin has reached 999,200 US dollars, of which the total fee generated in April alone reached 563,000 US dollars, which is higher than the sum of the previous three months. This year’s single-day handling fee peak occurred on April 16, and the handling fee generated on that day reached 187,000 US dollars, accounting for about 18.71% of the total handling fee this year.
From the perspective of the average transaction fee for a single transaction, this year Dogecoin’s daily transaction fee has risen from $0.0056 at the beginning of the year to the current $0.64, an increase of 11350%, which is equivalent to a 114-fold increase. During the same period, the daily Bitcoin transaction fee rose from $1.83 to $26.74, an increase of about 1361.20%, which is equivalent to a 14-fold increase. If DOGE continues to maintain a rapid upward trend, it is not ruled out that more computing power will participate in Dogecoin mining in the future, and transaction fees may be reduced at that time.
This month, DOGE has over 400,000 related tweets in a single day,
Social popularity is strongly correlated with currency prices within a week
Many people believe that the surge in DOGE this year is related to Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s repeated "calling orders" on Twitter. Then, to what extent has the spread of Dogecoin’s popularity on social media platforms and cyberspace affected DOGE? The actual currency price of DOGE?
Late January and mid-April this year are the two time periods when the number of #Dogecoin tweets reached its peak. Among them, on January 29, the number of tweets with the #Dogecoin topic reached a peak of 967,100, which is the same period# About 4.8 times the number of Bitcoin topic tweets.
According to the statistics of the correlation between the number of tweets and the price of DOGE in different time periods, the number of tweets is positively correlated with the price of DOGE, that is, when the number of tweets increases and the popularity of social media increases, the price of DOGE increases. Among them, the number of tweets has the highest correlation with the price of DOGE on that day, and the average Pearson coefficient of the first four months is about 0.63. Secondly, the correlation with the average price of DOGE in the next seven days is also relatively high. The average Pearson coefficient of the first four months The coefficient is about 0.60. This means that the more tweets, the higher the price of DOGE on that day, and the higher the average price of DOGE in the following week.
It should be noted that the correlation between the number of tweets and currency prices in different time periods does not show the characteristics of increasing or decreasing over time, which means that the number of tweets has an impact on currency prices in different time periods Has a certain randomness. For example, in February, the number of tweets has the least impact on the currency price of the day, but as time goes by, this effect becomes larger, but in April, the number of tweets has a greater impact on the currency price of the day and the next three days. Large, the impact on the currency price of the other two time periods is reduced.
From the perspective of wider network communication, the positive correlation between communication popularity and DOGE still exists. According to the Google search index, like Twitter, late January and mid-April this year are also the two peak periods of the Dogecoin Google search index. On April 16, Dogecoin's Google search index was about 173.3, and Bitcoin's search index was about 178.8, which are very close.
According to the statistics of the correlation between the search index and the price of DOGE in different time periods, the search index is positively correlated with the price of DOGE, that is, the higher the search index and the popularity of network communication, the higher the price of DOGE. Among them, the search index has the highest correlation with the price of DOGE currency on that day. The average Pearson coefficient of the first four months is about 0.74, which is significantly higher than the correlation of currency prices in the other three time periods. The average Pearson coefficient of the other three time periods The coefficients are all around 0.60. This means that the more Google searches, the higher the price of DOGE on that day. Moreover, in terms of the impact on DOGE's currency price on the day, the Google search index is more relevant than the number of tweets.
However, the Google search index also has a certain degree of randomness in the correlation between currency prices in different time periods. For example, in March, the Google search index has the greatest correlation with the currency price of the next day, while in April, the Google search index has the greatest correlation with the currency price of the day.
"Is Dogecoin (DOGE) worth holding for a long time?" After DOGE skyrocketed, it became a hot topic on Weibo. Under this topic, 21st Century Business Herald launched a poll on whether it is worth holding DOGE for a long time. At present, 4,437 of the 11,000 people think that it is not worth holding for a long time, accounting for about 40.37%, and another 3,771 people think that it is worth holding for a long time, accounting for about 34.28%. Dogecoin was born as a joke, but whether it should be treated as a joke in the future is still unclear.
