The two sessions focused on blockchain technology, the first company to buy BTC/ETH was born, and the trend of allocating encrypted assets was on the rise?

特邀专栏作者

2021-03-09 10:27 (UTC+8)

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The three-week sell-off in global capital markets caused by inflation concerns is coming to an end, and the latest U.S. stimulus bill of 1.9 trillion will once again push capital markets to make up for losses quickly.

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Representatives of the two sessions mentioned Bitcoin. During the two sessions, Chen Guoying, a representative of the National People's Congress,"Accelerate 5G technology research and build new advantages in future technology strategies"The report mentioned that Bitcoin is a case where the public welfare of the basic theory of China and the United States has been severely challenged. Against the background of the irreversible trend of Bitcoin, global institutions have entered a frenzy of buying. As more and more American institutions incorporate Bitcoin into asset allocation, Not to be outdone, China's first Hong Kong-listed company has taken on the crab. Meitu announced its deployment of the blockchain yesterday, spending $40 million to purchase BTC and EHT digital currencies as value reserves for the long-term development of the blockchain strategy. Once Meitu enters the The blockchain has started and has developed well, and it will surely set off a wave of configuration in China.

Long-term rating: Overweight

Long-term rating: Overweight

Bitcoin accumulation

Today's point of view

The bottom of the market has appeared, and Biden 1.9 trillion will land this week:

Biden's $19,000 stimulus plan, which was passed by the Senate over the weekend, will be handed over to the U.S. House of Representatives for approval this week, although it has a higher probability of passing. If passed by the House of Representatives, the plan will be handed over to US President Joe Biden for his signature.

Last Friday, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data released far exceeded expectations, triggering a roller coaster ride. On the one hand, as the economic recovery exceeded expectations, investors intensified inflation concerns, which led to the sell-off of U.S. debt and U.S. stocks. Afterwards, investors evaluated the positive impact of economic recovery on stock prices, and there was another V-shaped reversal, from falling to rising. The Nasdaq rebounded 4.48% from the lowest point, up 1.55%, the Dow Jones rose 1.85%, and the S&P rose 1.95%.

We remind investors to pay attention to the impact of 1.9 trillion U.S. debt on interest rates. Generally speaking, during an economic crisis, the U.S. Treasury Department issues treasury bonds to increase spending to boost the economy, while the U.S. central bank purchases treasury bonds with quantitative easing, thereby keeping bond yields at a low level.

In essence, the government’s issuance of treasury bonds is an increase in the supply of treasury bonds, while the purchase of treasury bonds by the central bank is an increase in the demand for treasury bonds. If the government issues bonds unilaterally and the central bank does not give corresponding support, the fiscal deficit may also cause real interest rates to rise, thereby affecting The effect of the overall policy rescue.

We observed that the Federal Reserve called for and welcomed more government bailouts last year, and on the other hand chose not to intervene under the premise that the bailout was imminent and U.S. bond yields soared. This is indeed one of the important macroeconomic events worthy of market concern.

We expect that if U.S. bond yields continue to climb, the Fed will follow the example of the central banks of Australia and New Zealand in expanding bond purchases or controlling the yield curve.

On the whole, the short-term macroeconomic fundamentals are positive, which is expected to support the rebound of all capital markets.

Bitcoin is operating in an ascending triangle in the short term. Investors are advised to pay attention to the upper horizontal resistance level of $52,000. After an effective breakthrough, the target price is near the previous high.

We ask investors to pay attention to the short-term callback risk. If Bitcoin fails to break through, it may return to the lower support level near $48,700.

The proportion of Bitcoin market capitalization still has no determined direction. We will continue to pay attention to its trend and notify investors as soon as the direction is established.

In other financial markets, as the U.S. economic recovery exceeded expectations and risk markets were sold off, the U.S. dollar formed a bottom W pattern and is expected to rise.

U.S. dollar-denominated commodity prices may be suppressed by the strong dollar. Gold is supported by an important resistance level of US$1685, and there will be a wave of rebound. We expect that the bottom of gold will most likely appear at this level. If it falls below one point, the price of gold will accelerate its decline.

It is expected that the Shanghai Composite Index should gain enough support at 3470 points and rebound to above 3520. The market can continue. It is a small probability event to fall below 3470, but once it falls below 3470 points, there will be an accelerated downward trend, so we need to be vigilant.