Sharing of my NFT investment experience

I have paid attention to NFT very early, as early as the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2018, I started to pay attention to it when CryptoKitties (CryptoKitties) went online.

At that time, I paid attention to CryptoKitties. On the one hand, I thought it was fun. On the other hand, after I missed the opportunity to invest in Bitcoin in the early stage, I began to pay special attention to emerging fields. So when Cryptokitties appeared, I thought it was a very interesting new thing, so I tried to participate and bought some cats that I thought were fun.

Mentioning Cryptokitties has to mention another encrypted collection earlier than it: CryptoPunks. Each of these punks is now worth a lot of money, and the cheapest one costs more than 20 Ethereum.

When I was paying attention to CryptoKitties, I also paid attention to Cypherpunk, but at that time, the price of Cypherpunk was not cheap. The cheapest one in my memory cost 3 to 4 Ethereum, so I was not willing to buy it at that time. This has to be said that I am very regretful when I think about it now.

After that, NFT on Ethereum was not so hot, and I gradually lost my attention to it. It is already 2020 when I pay attention to this field again, because of the rise of DeFi.

When I returned to this field, I found that it is not what it used to be, and its ecology is much stronger than in 2018 in terms of depth and breadth. Therefore, I decided to settle down and carefully study various well-known projects in the NFT field at that time, especially the very popular virtual games, virtual items, encrypted collectibles, and star cards.

After looking at these projects, I feel that the biggest difference between this field and DeFi is that it does not have a clear target group and clear control factors like DeFi.

In DeFi, many fields such as decentralized exchanges, decentralized lending, synthetic assets, etc. are just needed in the financial field, so each field has a wide audience and is just needed, so I can easily Grasp leading projects in each field.

In the NFT field, the audience in each segment seems to be difficult to define, and it is difficult to judge the criteria.

For example, in the field of virtual items, which is relatively hot now, many people are keen to auction some virtual land. But how many people will be keen on these lands? These lands are made by platforms, and more than one platform is making them, and the lands of each platform are different. In theory, later competitors can also imitate and create more novel lands. Which platform land will be most favored in the future?

In addition, virtual artwork is also a typical example. Now some virtual artists have risen, and their works have sold for surprisingly high prices. In my opinion, whether these works of art have appreciation value can no longer be viewed from a daily perspective, so what is the standard for evaluating these works of art? And these artists will continue to publish their own works. It is impossible for every work to be auctioned at a high price. So which work has potential? Which artist has more potential?

Another example is the recently popular NBA star card. If NBA star cards can become popular, will there be football star cards in the future? If there is a football star card, all the stars of almost all football powers can be designed as a card, such as Brazil, Argentina, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain... Which of these cards will be valuable in the end?

So there's a lot of uncertainty in those areas in my opinion. In addition, the price of each NFT in these hot fields is not cheap anymore. As an ordinary investor, it is impossible to buy one of each variety, because it is difficult for us to judge whether its subsequent value has the potential to continue to rise.

The most important point is that none of the above areas are just needed in my opinion. A person who likes virtual art may not necessarily be interested in star cards or virtual land, and a person who is interested in virtual land may not be interested in star cards. In DeFi, these fields such as decentralized exchanges, lending, and synthetic assets are almost intertwined, and the same investor will have needs in multiple fields. In my opinion, this is the most difficult place for NFT investment to grasp.

For the popular MANA, SAND, etc., I also bought their coins in the early stage and held them, but I don’t think it’s my investment, but I only see them as my attempt, because I have So far, I am still not sure how big the audience they are in the field, and in my opinion, their threshold is not high, and there is a possibility of being subverted by latecomers, so there is still a big possibility for how long they can be popular in this field. variable.

After thinking about these questions, I think that since there are so many variables, can we find constant factors among so many variables? Only unchanging factors have high certainty and controllable risks. So what are the constant factors? Rigid needs, only rigid needs can penetrate all segments, can last for a long time and continue to bring value. So what is rigid demand in the NFT field? I think the biggest rigid demand right now is trading.

Whether you like sports cards, virtual land, or art, you need a place to trade them. So the exchange is the entrance that aggregates all traffic. So thinking according to this logic, I first consider opensea. Unfortunately, it didn't issue coins, so I settled for the next best thing and bought rari.

I write about the process of my own exploration in this field, not to suggest that you also buy the varieties I have bought (because their prices are not cheap now, and some are just my own attempts, not necessarily true. I think there will be long-term value) but to share with you a little bit of my experience, hoping to be of reference value to everyone.