The contract is the biggest stumbling block of the bull market. Can the rise at the opening of this week continue?
In the past two days, the panic and greed index can still be maintained at around 55, which is the range of greed. Today's panic and greed index dropped sharply, directly reaching 38, entering the panic zone. It has fallen sharply, but the currency price has risen today. The biggest reason may be that the market’s selling sentiment was triggered by the continued bottoming out last night.
Everyone should be able to clearly feel the changes in market sentiment in the past two days, especially among the major communities, the price rebounded slightly, and the voice of buying bottoms will gradually come, and once the currency price continues to hit a new low like last night, panic Emotions will gradually spread, and many people have completely lost their own opinions at this time.
At present, we are still mainly aiming at the "washing" remarks of the market. This kind of view is still bullish, including our main view. However, the continuous decline in currency prices has made some bearish and hesitant to doubt whether this is a wash or continue to turn. , because the market has never had a decent rebound until now.
Regarding this point, we still have to start from the market structure. Our previous articles have popularized to everyone that when one side of the market has more chips, the currency price will have a crisis of rapid changes in the opposite direction. Start to increase.
The rapid decline in the currency price last night obviously confirmed this to us. After several times of smashing into the market and tens of billions of positions in the market, when the market bottomed out last night, there were still nearly 200 million positions in an hour. The amount of bargaining chips worth 100 million US dollars reached nearly 1 billion within 24 hours, which shows that there are still quite a few chips in the market trying to buy the bottom, but this method of buying the bottom does use the contract instead of the spot.
The long-to-short leverage ratio of BTC is particularly evident from the data on Ouyi OKEX. Even though the market was so "killing long" last week, the long-to-short leverage ratio did not fall further and remained high. The market deleveraging is obviously not sufficient.
Why contract is the biggest "stumbling block" of the bull market? This is the biggest reason. During the strong market in the past, that is, the big bull market that blind people can see, it was actually good at that time. The rapid decline, and when the time comes to the strong period of external buying, the currency price will rise back again.
But this is not the case now. The dual pressure of U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen + the global financial market correction cycle has caused the currency price to enter a correction cycle, and the currency price has also entered a correction cycle in a short period of time. Shock recovery period, but when the market drops at this time, there will be a large influx of leveraged and contract users. Coincidentally, at this time, some spot stocks are being sold, and the dealer's deliberate actions will lead to a continuous In the process of falling, the market in the past two days is obviously going in this direction.
Therefore, we often suggest that you do not use contracts and leverage to buy bottoms. Relying on leverage and contracts to buy bottoms, it will be difficult to restore the bullish sentiment in the market in a short period of time, but it will only fuel the arrogance of the short sellers.
Why we have been judging from the market that the market has not stopped falling, while suggesting that everyone can hoard coins in the market. Why not intervene after the market has completely risen?
The main premise is that the current view is still based on the correction in the middle of the bull market, and once the market correction is over, it will be difficult to judge the sentiment. For example, it will be difficult for everyone to judge whether it is a rebound from a further decline or a re-entry into the upward trend. According to the trading habits of traders, At that time, there is a high probability that you will still be afraid while watching, and it will be difficult to find a suitable opportunity to enter the market. In the end, you may still be at a high position before making up your mind. The case of killing short orders rose.
But still according to your own trading habits, if you think the bull market is over, if you think the decline is still not over, if you think you can’t convince yourself to enter the market under this situation, even if you enter the market in batches with small positions, then Follow your own comfortable pace, the transaction itself is an anti-human process.
Back to the market, we said in yesterday’s update article that if it fell below $44,000 yesterday, it will continue to fall, and it will start to rebound when it falls near $43,000. The rebound depends on how strong it is, and yesterday the currency price just reached 43,000 US dollars, and then rebounded so far, currently hitting 47,000 US dollars.
Judging from the daily line, it is almost a Yangxian trend that will rise as soon as the market opens today. If it is another trading day, it will be fine, but it happens to be the opening of this week. If it rises here, it means that this week has to be maintained. Emotions, judging from the current situation, are not impossible, but unstable.
Just imagine, there was just a big negative line last week, and the Jedi rebound started on Monday this week. Whether it is from the market or market sentiment, the probability is relatively small, so we think the current sentiment is short-term, and it was the market rebound last night. A little continuation.
Taking a step back, even if the market rebounds, we are not afraid, because our operation strategy includes this situation. During the early decline, we will enter the market in batches. It is best to rise up. If there is a big correction, there will also be a chance of a correction. This kind of operation strategy eliminates the chance of being short, especially when the market suddenly rises and everyone dare not enter the market.
A rise like this was unexpected. After hitting a new low yesterday, the market continued to rebound and there was no decent callback. After the market has repeated at this position, the market sentiment has gradually recovered, and the currency price has reached a short-term high. At this time, it is often a tangled time point, and the small partners who open contracts and leverage may be exploded , so everything that can’t wait is ready, but it still depends on personal trading habits.
ETH: It fell below $1,300 yesterday, and rebounded above $1,450 today. Basically, few people caught such a rebound, unless they were on the field all the time. At present, it still depends on the overall situation of the market. Looking back at the period of the callback in January , found that ETH did not pull back too much at the time, but would continue to hit new highs during the period, and is currently optimistic about the market when it rebounds in the later period.
LTC: As a whole, it still follows the trend of the market. Don’t forget Grayscale’s favor for it. When the market enters a rebound or rising stage, these hidden benefits will explode at an opportune time.
Uni: The intraday rebound rate is quite good, and the current increase has exceeded 5%. I can’t be sure whether the $20 Uni is the cheapest chip recently, but it can also be called a very cheap chip. At present, funds have not yet entered the DeFi concept Under the circumstances, the outlook is worthy of attention.
AAVE: As early as the 27th, last Saturday, it started to receive positive results. Yesterday it reached the 60-day moving average and rebounded by 6%, and today it rose again by 7%. These early leaders of DeFi will never let everyone down.
DOT: It has stopped falling since last Friday. When we asked everyone to hoard coins, it was almost the cheapest time. Now it has returned to above $30, and the trend is relatively stable.
