Opinion: Why AMPL will never become a stable currency?

Editor's Note: This article comes fromBrother Guanlian (ID: guanlian2009), reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

Editor's Note: This article comes from

Brother Guanlian (ID: guanlian2009)

, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

Discussing ampl with a friend yesterday. I haven't researched this currency before, but after reading one or two articles, I think this model is a bit interesting.

If it is less than $1, it will be inflated, and if it is higher than $1, it will be deflationary. On the surface, this is to stabilize the price of the currency. This is a stable currency.

After reading it, I think that ampl is not a stable currency, but a capital disk, a cleverly designed capital disk. The reasons are as follows:

1. Below one dollar, use the deflation model to stabilize the currency price. People who have not used stable currency will be willing to use it.

Because the first requirement of people who use stablecoins is stability. Using deflation to maintain the stability of the currency price on the surface, the essence is that money is decreasing, and people who do not really use stablecoins will use it.

Think about it, if you sell 10,000 USDT held by Bitcoin, and it will become 9,000 USDT tomorrow, will you use it to trade with Bitcoin? When you sell bitcoins, you are already bearish, and you only hold stablecoins. As a result, stablecoins are unstable—even if their prices are stable and their quantities are not stable, they are still unstable. Is it superfluous?

This is very important. It shows that the original intention of ampl was not established.

I sent this paragraph to long-btc, and he said that the white paper of ampl never said that it should become a stable currency, but only that it should become a low-volatility currency.

Well, even if it is said that AMPL has low volatility, this low volatility is an illusion. On the surface, the price volatility is low, but in fact the user's assets are highly volatile—even if the currency price remains unchanged, the number of coins is increasing or decreasing, which is not the same thing ?

Therefore, the die-hard fans of AMPL say that the price fluctuation is small, and the application scenario that can be used as mortgage does not exist, and it does not have any mortgage advantage over any currency on the market.

When we usually talk about mortgages, why do we say that those with less price fluctuations are more suitable for mortgages? Because in any other scenario, such as mortgaging a house and a car, the quantity remains unchanged, the quantity remains unchanged, and if the price remains unchanged, the total assets also remain unchanged.

Therefore, on the surface, we need less price fluctuations for mortgages. In fact, our mortgage needs are less fluctuations in assets.

Imagine that you mortgaged 10,000 AMPL to someone else, and the price did not change the next day, but the quantity decreased, and the price decreased. Is it the same thing?

From a philosophical point of view, AMPL wants to be stable and low-volatility, but it is in the wrong direction. Stability is not based on the system as a reference. Stability must be the introduction of forces outside the system.

Tossing the number of coins in the hands of users internally cannot be stable or low-volatility!

Low volatility is an illusion, high volatility is the essence!

AMPL is playing a math game, a numbers game.

2. Looking deeper, once the zero point of $1 has passed, AMPL will have two reasons to drive the rise. The first is inflation, and the second is the influx of new leeks brought about by inflationary benefits.

This is very similar to the transaction mining back then. High returns led to the integration of new leeks, and the influx of new leeks further pushed up the returns. This is a virtuous circle.

The rate of return determines how crazy the rise is, and it is only possible for the rate of return to drop if it stops.

3. Many people believe that the price of ampl will go through a sharp fluctuation and then level off. Around one dollar, it will go through a gradually convergent curve, and the fluctuation will become smaller and smaller, and finally reach the stable currency level. Effect.

I think this conclusion is not valid in theory or in reality. Let’s look at the price of AMPL in the figure below, and it is not getting more and more convergent around $1:

AMPL is too similar to transaction mining, there are two spirals, an upward spiral and a downward spiral. Sorry, as an old leek, I always like to use the past to explain the present.

It is still determined by the yield formula: currency price rise income + inflation income or deflation loss > or < 0, if it is greater than that, there will be more motivation to hold, and if it is less, the selling pressure will be greater.

Corresponding to four zero points:

First: break through one dollar and enter the zero point of the upward spiral;

Second: When the price rises to a certain peak value above 1 dollar, the loss of turning around and falling exceeds the inflation gain. At this time, it is suitable to throw it away, and throw it away without looking back;

Third: The currency price falls to one dollar, entering a downward spiral of death;

Fourth: At a certain point below $1, the currency price is pulled up by the new influx of funds every day, which is higher than the loss caused by deflation, and the income begins to turn from negative to positive.

This currency is actually very easy to speculate, and a rate of return formula can see through it.

I haven't researched this coin before, but after researching it, I dare to brag that I can successfully escape from the top of fcoin by virtue of my skill in escaping from the top of fcoin.

In fact, it is too much like FCOIN mining. The reason why it didn’t return to zero directly is that there is still the next round of bull market and the influx of new leeks.

That's right, the reason why the ampl didn't return to zero was because of iron powder and new leeks.

Still look at this picture:

The turning point of the price of Ampl is actually strongly related to the broader market of Bitcoin. You can see that Bitcoin fell sharply in March, and ampl also formed the deep pit in the middle.

What saved ampl from the death spiral was that bitcoin went up, and every coin goes up. AMPL also rose, rising so much that it got out of the death spiral and started a new round of rising.

However, the double driving force of AMPL's rise is destined to rise very quickly and violently, and will quickly overdraw new users and new leeks.

Hey, it's too complicated. How to fry such a coin? We say actual: