Bitcoin breaks 9000 | It’s just a dream, I’m still very moved after waking up for a long time
Author | Qin Xiaofeng
Editor | Mandy, Hao Fangzhou
Produced | Odaily
Produced | Odaily
Over the past 24 hours, the encryption market has risen across the board.
According to BitUniverse data, at 11 o'clock this morning, Bitcoin successfully broke through the $9,000 mark, and once touched $9,450 during the session, and was once again listed on Weibo's hot search. Mainstream currencies such as ETH and BCH generally rose by more than 10% in 24 hours.
The triumphant rise has boosted market confidence and also pushed up expectations for the realization of the "halving market". However, can such a rise continue, and where is it possible to pull back?
(Image Coin360)
1. Market review: record breaking, seven consecutive positive weekly lines
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This week, Bitcoin first consolidated around $7,500-$7,700, and at 10:00 yesterday morning, it began to change.
However, it did not directly break through, but walked out of a "world needle", reaching a maximum of 7,849 US dollars, and then quickly fell back, reaching a minimum of 7,710 US dollars.
Regarding this "world needle", many analysts at that time interpreted it as: the upward potential is insufficient, and Bitcoin will continue to fall, and they gave suggestions for opening short positions.
However, the market did not follow the short script. In the next 8 hours, although Bitcoin did not break through the $8,000 mark, it was always in a state of slow rise, and the bears also planned to increase their positions around $8,000 and continue to open short.
At 18 o'clock in the evening, Bitcoin broke through the $8,000 mark, and then continued to climb slowly; as of 24:00 Beijing time, Bitcoin closed above $8,300, with an intraday high of $8,380; at this time, Bitcoin has risen for 16 consecutive hours and There has been no major pullback.
The bearers believe that $8,500 and $9,000 will be a strong resistance level, and it is also a good time to continue to cover their positions. However, repeated replenishment has become the fuel to accelerate the rise of the market, and the "Heaven and Earth Needle" has finally become a reminder for short sellers.
In the early hours of this morning, Bitcoin successfully broke through $8,500; at 11:00 this morning, it broke through the $9,000 mark. As of press time, Bitcoin was temporarily at $9,167, and once touched $9,450 during the session, a 17% increase in 24 hours, which is also the highest increase among the top ten mainstream currencies by market value.It is worth noting that this Bitcoin rally also set a new record
: It has risen for seven consecutive weeks, also known as "Seven Lianyang". The highest record in the previous 10 years was "Six Lianyang".
The gains of other mainstream currencies are: ETH (+12.72%), XRP (+7.5%), BCH (+11.52%), BSV (+14.15%), LTC (+8.5%), EOS (+10.8%); market value Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, 97 are on the rise, and the remaining ones are: Komodo (-3%), ABBC Coin (-0.94%), and Enjin Coin (-0.06%).
In the futures market, the Air Force suffered heavy casualties. Coin data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network has liquidated more than 545 million U.S. dollars, the largest single liquidation is 6.81 million U.S. dollars, and nearly 36,000 investors have become "victims" of liquidation. Among them, BTC's 24-hour liquidation was the most, as high as 500 million US dollars, ETH's 24-hour liquidation was 21.52 million US dollars, and EOS and BCH's liquidation were less than 10 million US dollars.
The rebound in the encryption market is also reflected in the securities market. A shares closed this afternoon, the blockchain sector rose 2.36%, and the Shenzhen Securities Blockchain 50 Index rose 3.17%. Among the 241 concept stocks, 220 rose, accounting for more than 90%. In terms of U.S. stocks, Canaan (NASDAQ: CAN) closed up 2.37% yesterday, temporarily reported at $4.76, with a cumulative increase of 70.3% in the past month; but Hong Kong stocks did not perform well. Good, Ooke Cloud Chain (01499.HK), a subsidiary of Ooke Group, reported at HK$0.2, a cumulative drop of 16% in the past month; Huobi Technology (01611.HK) reported at HK$3.17, a cumulative drop of 3% in the past month.
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2. The cause of the rise: market confidence is recovering
Regarding yesterday's rise in the encryption market, there is a view that: the rebound in crude oil prices drives up Bitcoin.
According to the data, starting from April 28, the WTI crude oil futures contract in June began to rebound, and in the past 48 hours, the increase was close to 30%, and the highest price was 17.75 US dollars per barrel.
Crude oil's rebound time seems to be consistent with yesterday's Bitcoin breakthrough, so it is considered to be one of the reasons. However, multiple interviewees told Odaily that the recovery of crude oil prices is not the fundamental reason for Bitcoin's rise.
"The rise and fall of Bitcoin itself does not have a positive correlation with crude oil. This year's plunge is mainly due to the liquidity crisis caused by the panic of the global epidemic, and all risky assets have been abandoned. Bitcoin was in an oversold state before, and the current rebound belongs to Reasonable return of value.” said Li Zhe, partner of Clipper Coin Capital and Conflux community ambassador.
OKEx Chief Researcher William also expressed the same opinion. "The plunge of various global assets in March was largely due to the emergence of a global liquidity crisis. In the face of this systemic risk, Bitcoin, as a high-risk alternative investment asset, naturally withdraws funds to seek more Safer and more liquid assets. At present, there is no systematic liquidity crisis in the world, and the correlation between Bitcoin and the traditional asset market is insufficient. Therefore, the rise in the price of Bitcoin in this round is caused by the digital currency market itself It is determined that the sharp drop in crude oil will hardly affect the price of Bitcoin.”
In fact, the data shows that the correlation between Bitcoin's trend and crude oil is indeed weak. On April 20, the May contract of WTI crude oil futures plummeted to a negative number, a drop of more than 320%. Bitcoin did not show a sharp retracement during the same period, with a drop of less than 1%. On April 27, the June contract of WTI crude oil futures fell again by 25%. %, Bitcoin rose slightly by 0.2% over the same period.
If the data range is extended to 30 days, the bullish sentiment in the encryption market is indeed high. The mainstream currencies generally rose by more than 20%, and Bitcoin rose by 40% in April. Crude oil in the same period was in a downward trend, with a maximum drop of more than 80%.
Therefore, attributing the recovery of the crypto market to the rebound in crude oil does not hold water. A more tenable reason is the return of investor confidence in the crypto market.
"During the crisis, the prices of risky assets including stocks and cryptocurrencies reached the bottom of the market. Now the liquidity crisis has begun to resolve, and the pessimistic expectations of the market have been gradually corrected, so major assets around the world have ushered in a strong rebound." William said.
OKEx trading big data shows that the BTC leverage long-short ratio has gradually recovered from the historical low of 0.15 in March, and the highest is close to 0.9. The bullish sentiment is gradually rising.
Another data is that the size of the stablecoin market continues to increase. Throughout April, the market value of stablecoins rose from $7.79 billion to $9.55 billion, an increase of 22%, which is also the second largest month of growth.
Odaily analyst Kang Kang believes that the rise may be due to the entry of funds from overseas institutions. "Yesterday, the spot volume increased, especially exchanges focusing on overseas users such as Binance, Bitstamp, Coinbase, etc. have obvious premiums, while contracts have no obvious premiums, and the volume is also significantly higher than exchanges that focus on domestic users such as Huobi and OKEx, etc., indicating that the entry funds may mainly come from overseas, and mainly in the spot trading of Bitcoin.”
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3. Can the market continue after the halving?
For the investors who have missed out this time, they are currently in a state of entanglement: they are afraid of being trapped when they get in the car, and they are afraid of being caught again if they don’t get in the car. Therefore, the most concerned question is: Can the market continue?
For this issue, it is necessary to consider from two dimensions of encryption market and traditional finance. After all, the crude oil price war and the impact of the epidemic in March this year caused a liquidity crisis in traditional finance, which also affected the encryption market, causing Bitcoin to plummet to $3,800.
However, considering the traditional financial market, the current liquidity crisis has been resolved and will not affect the encryption market again.
"At present, the spread of the new crown epidemic in the world has gradually been brought under control, and the violent shocks in the oil market have begun to adapt. In addition, the central banks of various countries have further released liquidity in order to rescue the market. Therefore, even if the price of oil falls, it will not cause a new round. Liquidity crisis. The most obvious example is that WIT crude oil futures prices plummeted to negative prices last week, which did not trigger systemic liquidity risks in traditional financial markets.” OKEx CEO JayHao explained.
Lorry, director of industry research at the Amber Group, agrees. "The volume of the crude oil market is still too small compared with stocks and bonds (the global crude oil market is about 1 trillion US dollars, the stock market is about 80 trillion US dollars, and the bond market is about 250 trillion US dollars), a small scale A liquidity crisis in the market cannot affect a market several orders of magnitude larger, just like an altcoin crisis cannot affect Bitcoin.”
"For the various black swans this year, such as the epidemic, crude oil, and US stocks, whether it is Wall Street or Lujiazui, everyone has already been psychologically immune, and most of them have adjusted their investment portfolios. It will not be like the beginning of this year. That caught the global finance off guard, so it is difficult to cause the last plunge." Li Zhe said.
From the perspective of the encryption market itself, halving is not only a hot spot for hype, but also a potential "hidden danger".
Many interviewees said that before the halving, there is still some room for speculation in Bitcoin, but the real bull market has not yet come, and there is a possibility of a callback after the halving.
"Before the halving, Bitcoin may break through 10,000 US dollars strongly and test this year's new high of 10,500 US dollars. As for how high it can be, it depends on the list of shorts around 10,000. At least these people have to be blown up." It will fall back.” Encryption analyst Li Ao said.
"Recently, the BTC spot market has been buying strongly, and it is still under repair, but it is hard to say that it will turn bullish. Especially the halving will have a great impact on mining, and many old computing power are facing the risk of being eliminated. (Reduce It will not have much impact on the price of the currency in the short term, but this is also a good landing, and there is a risk of a callback." Lorry told Odaily.
William believes that even if it is a callback, the decline will be limited, and there is a high probability that it will not fall to $3,800 (this year's low). "Considering the difficulty adjustment, the time when the Antminer S19 is put into the market and the production of mining machines, the bottom of the bitcoin price will appear above $5,000-6,000. Once the bottom price is broken, a large number of mining machines will be shut down, and we must wait for two weeks to let them The difficulty value is readjusted, which is equivalent to the bitcoin network entering a state of shock. For believers in the bitcoin community, this is impossible, so this price range is the psychological floor price of bitcoin. After halving, bitcoin It’s also hard to break below that price range.”
However, the interviewees also said that in the medium and long term, Bitcoin will eventually lead to a bull market.
"In the medium and long term, the price of Bitcoin will rise. With the monetary easing policies implemented by major central banks around the world to rescue the market, it is inevitable that the nominal prices of various assets around the world will rise. However, due to the time lag of monetary policy, Nominal price rises caused by money flooding need to be seen in the medium to long term,” explained William.
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4. Focus: Ethereum + platform currency
In addition to Bitcoin this year, there are also some currencies that deserve special attention, the first of which is Ethereum.
"Ethereum is one of the few large projects among the digital currencies with remarkable defi ecological construction and influence. It is recommended to hold positions and continue to observe." Li Zhe said.
BitUniverse data shows that in the past month, among the top ten mainstream currencies by market capitalization, ETH led the rise: BTC (+41.9%), ETH (+67.95%), XRP (+31.62%), LTC (+28.38%), EOS ( +22.95%), ETC (+39.95%), BSV (+33.87%).
Judging from the news, Eth 2.0 will be launched in the second half of this year and CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Commission) will pass Ethereum futures, which will become hot spots of speculation.（Grayscale Investments）Judging from recent news, digital asset management fund Grayscale Capital
He also began to hold heavy positions in ETH, which undoubtedly became a big plus. In the report, the company announced that it has purchased about 756,200 ETH, which is equivalent to nearly half of the amount of ETH that has been mined this year.
Data from blockchain analysis firm IntoTheBlock shows that ETH has seen a significant increase in large transactions in 2020, with the average number of transactions for most of 2019 being around 180 to 290.
This rise in numbers could be the result of further involvement of institutional investors in the market, which is a positive sign for Ethereum’s fundamental growth.
In addition, the platform currency is also worthy of attention. With the advent of the bull market, the income of exchanges will inevitably rise, and the repurchase of platform tokens will inevitably increase. From the data in April, the platform currency has outperformed most cryptocurrencies: BNB (+41.43%), HT (+32.5%), OKB (+30.8%).
Of course, there are still many people who are concerned about whether the "Altcoin Season" (Altcoin Season) will come? Judging from the data in 2019 and the first quarter of this year, the performance of altcoins is not satisfactory, and the income is far lower than that of platform coins and the top ten mainstream coins.
"Although altcoins will still follow the trend of Bitcoin, it is difficult to get out of the independent market, except for those who control the market. Because from the perspective of future development trends, it is difficult for altcoins to be recognized by the market, unless altcoins can really do some innovation and Practical things, bring actual needs to users.” William explained.
