Analyze the rise logic of Bitcoin from the market value of the stablecoin USDT
On April 27th, an online sharing by Bao Erye, the sharing content was very frank, in the style of Bao Erye. The topics discussed are very extensive, covering the early history of the currency circle, views on Bitcoin, and predictions on the halving market. I have extracted some viewpoints from this sharing to share with you for your reference.
1. Prediction on the halving market.Whether the price of Bitcoin rises or not has nothing to do with the halving. It is CX that really drives the price of Bitcoin up or down.
The "CX" mentioned by Mr. Bao here refers to the situation that many ordinary investors flock to buy coins when they are encouraged by various propaganda and news to pay attention to Bitcoin again, and when they find that Bitcoin has a money-making effect.
Bao Erye gave an early example, saying that the early rise of Bitcoin was mainly due to two events - "3M" and "Fengchao Mining Machine". These two large-scale pyramid schemes have attracted a large number of Bitcoins in China. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, it is difficult to hold large-scale offline promotional activities, which makes it difficult to carry out offline activities.
I don't make a judgment on the fact that Bitcoin will rely on CX to rise in the future, but I agree that this year's cruel macro environment will hardly make it possible for Bitcoin to rise sharply.
In addition, even if Bitcoin really has a halving market, the arrival of the halving market will occur half a year or a year after the halving occurs according to historical rules. But I think this year is the right year for layout.
According to Bao Erye's understanding, will this CX effect come again? This is closely related to another point of view he shared.
2. Holders of USDT.One point that Bao Erye mentioned when he mentioned USDT is worth noting:
At present, players in the market generally have two types of assets in their hands, USDT and BTC, and others are for accompanying players. Including those who do CX series are all accompanying players, and the current total market value of USDT is about 6.4 billion US dollars. The main holders of these 6.4 billion USDT are all Chinese, because Chinese users cannot use RMB to buy and sell Bitcoin, so they can only borrow USDT. Therefore, a large number of USDT is held by the Chinese.
Seeing this, I thought that when I was chatting with a friend from Japan at the beginning of the year, the friend also said that almost no one would use USDT in Japan, and the market size of USDT in Japan was very small.
And the largest open, compliant, and regulated trading market in the world is the United States. What about the situation of USDT in the United States?
Because of its supervision, the opacity of USDT has been repeatedly summoned and suspected by the US government, so its image in the minds of US users is not good. In addition, users in the United States can directly purchase Bitcoin with U.S. dollars, so overall, the market size of USDT in the United States should not be large.
The United States and Japan, the two most important markets in the world, do not use or rarely use USDT, so it is only possible that Chinese users are using USDT in large quantities.
This is also true from the side of Ying Zhengbao's second master. If the main holders of USDT are all Chinese, then based on its current market value of 6.4 billion US dollars, it is equivalent to 44 billion yuan. This scale is insignificant compared with domestic stocks, real estate, and any other traditional markets.
So this is one of the reasons for Bitcoin to rise in the future.I have another analysis on this, and I will share it with you tomorrow.
