Upward momentum is weak, shrinking and wide consolidation
Blockchain secondary market report for the 16th week of 2020
April 12, 2019 - April 20, 2020
Highlights of this report:
Highlights of this report:
This week's market trend: Weak upward momentum, shrinking and wide consolidation
Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the exchange decreased by 8.80%
Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 4.16%, USDT balance increased by 5.61%
USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading
USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading
Bitcoin Volatility Index: Volatility Remains Low, Investor Sentiment Remains Cautious
Details of this report:
Summarize
Details of this report:
1. Market trends this week:1. Market trends this week:
Upward momentum is weak, shrinking and wide consolidation
As of the statistical time of the report (April 20, 2019), the average total market capitalization of global blockchain assets this week was US$200.985 billion, down 0.58% from the same period last week; The average fell 3.78%.
As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is 6.24%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 5.72%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 5.24%.Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months
Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months
Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania
Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania
Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania
2. Exchange trading volume:2. Exchange trading volume:
Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges
Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks
Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania
Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges
Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania
Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania
Nine
Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume
Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania
Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China
Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania
Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela
Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania
【Note】:NineBig exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi,OKEX、CoinBase、Poloniex、Bitmex、Bittrex、Bitfinex、Bithumb
Big exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi,
Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets this week
Figure 8 Changes in the daily average turnover rate of the top ten assets in the past two weeks
Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania
Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets this week
Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania
The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (1820.95% this week, down 46.28% or 2.48% from last week), LTC (1055.29% this week, up 114.87% or 12.21% from last week) , EOS (928.42% this week, down 56.95% from last week, down 5.78%). The last three in the cumulative turnover rate ranking are ADA (64.89% this week, down 8.29% from last week, down 11.33%), XRP (175.89% this week, up 1.22% from last week, up 0.70%), BTC (197.76% this week, down 8.40% or 4.07% from last week).
[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).
[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).
4. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 4.16%, USDT balance increased by 5.61%The current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, TRC-20) is 6.9691 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.26% over the same period last week。
Figure 10 Recent exchange BTC balance and BTC price trend
Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price
Figure 11 Changes in the total USDT balance of the exchange
Source: TokenMania
[Note] Exchange wallet balances are comprehensive data covering Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX and other mainstream exchanges.
5.USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading
The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.
Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price
Source: Tradingview (Kraken), TokenMania
means USDT
【Note】USDTThe discount premium index is 100When it means USDTParity, index greater than 100means USDTPremium, less than 100means USDTDiscount.
6. Figure 14 Fear & Greed Index
Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.
Figure 13 Bitcoin BVOL24H volatility at daily level
Source: BitMEX, TokenMania
Figure 14 Fear & Greed Index
Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania
Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania
The opening value of the Bitcoin volatility index this week was 2.14, the highest value was 5.18, the lowest value was 1.95, and the closing value was 2.25. The closing value was 5.14% higher than the same period last week. 10 points, the highest point this week is 18 points, the lowest point is 11 points, the latest point of the Fear & Greed Index is 16 points, an increase of 6 points from 10 points in the same period last week, the market sentiment is extreme fear, and investors generally remain cautious.
7. Futures contracts: The short-term futures discount rate has fallen, and the bearish sentiment has easedBXBT
Figure 15 Bitcoin futures and spot price trends in the past two weeks
Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania
Figure 16 Bitcoin futures premium and discount rate in the past two weeks
Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania
[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is based on BitMEXBXBTSpot data for calculation
From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset.For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.
For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.Figure 17 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week
Figure 17 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week
Source: TokenMania
Figure 18 Comparison of Dynamic Return Rates of Various Assets in the Past Three Years。
Figure 18 Comparison of Dynamic Return Rates of Various Assets in the Past Three Years
Source: TokenMania
Among all kinds of assets, the market value of digital currency fluctuates the most. During the process of bubble expansion and bubble burst, the price of digital currency tends to show a trend of skyrocketing and plummeting. Since 2020, the market has been affected by the liquidity crisis brought about by the global epidemic, and Bitcoin has experienced a sharp correction. Recently, with the recovery of global risk appetite, market confidence has recovered and regained some lost ground. In the long run, digital currencies are still undervalued. As the bubbles are squeezed out, digital currencies are worthy of partial allocation as alternative assets.
9. Summary
9. SummaryMarket trend: This week, the market remained volatile in a range, market trading activity dropped slightly, and investor sentiment remained extremely fearful.
At the beginning of the week, the broader market fluctuated around US$190 billion, and then the market center gradually moved up to around US$210 billion for a short period of sideways trading. At the end of the week, it fell again and stayed above US$205 billion, up 3.13% from the same period last week. In terms of external markets, the performance of major global markets was stable this week, and risk appetite continued to rise. External markets generally continued to rebound. U.S. stocks and domestic stock markets rose, but gold and crude oil prices fell, and crude oil prices continued to hit a new low in 18 years. This week, the price of Bitcoin remained in consolidation, and several tentative attacks failed to break through the pressure level of 7,300 US dollars, and it fell back to around 7,000 US dollars under pressure in late trading. From the perspective of the disk, the market performance this week is relatively flat. The continuous issuance of USDT and the increase in peripheral risk appetite have moved the market center upward. However, there are still great uncertainties in the current external environment, and investor sentiment remains generally cautious. The pressure is obvious, and the actual volume is not enough to support an effective breakthrough. In the short term, the overall market is weak. It is still a game among existing users. After deleveraging in the previous period, the risk has been released to a certain extent. Investors are still bullish on this year's halving market as a whole.Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the exchange decreased by 8.80%.
The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges this week was 134.034 billion yuan, down 8.80% from last week. From the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges are Huobi (43.26%), Binance (23.44%), and OKEX (20.80%). The top three exchanges account for the total trading volume of the nine exchanges. 87.50% of the trading volume, the top three accounted for an increase of 0.13% compared to last week; Huobi’s cumulative trading volume this week decreased by 29.479 billion yuan compared with last week, a drop of 6.77%, Binance’s cumulative trading volume this week decreased by 23.37 billion yuan compared to last week, The drop was 9.61%. The cumulative trading volume of OKEX this week dropped by 25.025 billion yuan from last week, a drop of 11.36%.
The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 10.83% to 30.456 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 13.00% to 8.603 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 25.99% to 530.25 billion Bolivars. Based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 17721.28VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 29.92191 million yuan; It was up 1.75% in the previous week.The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week accumulated to 661.67%, an increase of 1.41% or 0.21% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 116.38%, the lowest was 85.27%, and the extreme value difference was 31.10 percentage points, of which XLM changed hands The rate increase topped the list, up 16.45% this week.
Exchange wallet balance:This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 2,505,259 BTC, an increase of 4.16%; the exchange’s USDT balance was 2,680.85 million USDT, a change of 5.61%; An increase of 6.26% over the same period last week.
USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late tradingUSDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading
. The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range this week, and maintained a positive premium in late trading. The usdt/usd trading pair on the kraken exchange opened with a premium of 0.14% this week, with a maximum premium of 0.34%, a minimum premium of 0.00%, and a closing premium of 0.12%. At present, the premium rate has fallen from the high level during the previous period of violent price fluctuations and returned to the normal operating range.Bitcoin Volatility Index: Volatility Remains Low, Investor Sentiment Remains Cautious
. The opening value of the Bitcoin volatility index this week was 2.14, the highest value was 5.18, the lowest value was 1.95, and the closing value was 2.25. The closing value was 5.14% higher than the same period last week. 10 points, the highest point this week is 18 points, the lowest point is 11 points, the latest point of the Fear & Greed Index is 16 points, an increase of 6 points from 10 points in the same period last week, the market sentiment is extreme fear, and investors generally remain cautious.Futures contracts: The discount rate of short-term futures fell this week, which was the second consecutive week of decline. The contract basis tended to converge, and the bearish sentiment in the market eased.
The total trading volume of Bitcoin monthly futures this week was US$49 million, a decrease of 1% from last week; the largest open interest was US$6.3 million, also a decrease of 1% from last week. From the perspective of the term structure, the weekly contract price of OKEX this week has changed from a discount to a premium, with an average premium of 0.15%; the average discount of the next week’s contract is 0.13%, and the discount rate has dropped by 0.63 percentage points; the average discount of the quarterly contract is 0.41% , the discount increased by 0.08 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts was 0.10%. This week, OKEX’s latest weekly contract discount is 0.13%, the latest quarterly contract discount is 0.03%, and the discount rate drops by 1.44 percentage points, and the latest BitMEX perpetual contract discount is 0.07%. As of the statistical time of the report, the 24-hour long-short ratio of BITMEX BTC / USD margin market is 51.23%:48.77%, and the bulls are relatively dominant. On the whole, the discount rate of Bitcoin futures has become smaller in the near future, and the futures and current prices tend to be consistent, and the short-term bullish sentiment in the market has increased.The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments.
risk warning
Price correction risk
Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations
Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations
The risk of further spread of the epidemic
Bitcoin contract price fluctuations
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