Oscillating upward closing Yang line, the bottom of the market is gradually rising

Blockchain secondary market report for the 14th week of 2020

March 30, 2019 - April 6, 2020

Highlights of this report:

• Highlights of this report:

• The trend of the market this week: the upward closing line fluctuates, and the bottom of the market gradually rises

• Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the exchange decreased by 17.34%

• Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 9.34%
  

• Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 4.49%, USDT balance increased by 5.92%

• USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fell slightly, and maintained a positive premium in late trading

• Bitcoin Volatility Index: Volatility remains relatively high, market sentiment remains panic

• Details of this report:

• Summarize

Details of this report:

1. Market trends this week:1. Market trends this week:

Oscillating upward closing Yang line, the bottom of the market is gradually rising

As of the statistical time of the report (April 6, 2019), the average total market value of global blockchain assets this week was US$185.8715 billion, an increase of 3.09% from the same period last week; The average fell 5.69%.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is 8.65%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 9.44%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 6.34%.This week, the market fluctuated upwards and hit a new high in the near future. The currencies with large, medium and small market capitalizations rose across the board. Investors remained cautious in general.Be cautious.

Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Exchange trading volume:2. Exchange trading volume:

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges  

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Nine

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

【Note】:NineBig exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi,OKEX、CoinBase、Poloniex、Bitmex、Bittrex、Bitfinex、Bithumb

Big exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi, 

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets this week

Figure 8 Changes in the daily average turnover rate of the top ten assets in the past two weeks

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets this week

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (1691.45% this week, down 298.62% or 15.01% from last week), LTC (918.57% this week, up 32.49% or 3.67% from last week) , EOS (851.17% this week, down 60.79% from last week, down 6.67%); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are ADA (76.07% this week, down 2.24% from last week, down 2.87%), XRP (189.15% this week, down 30.44% from last week, down 13.86%), BTC (215.28% this week, down 26.15% from last week, down 10.83%).

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 2,384,334 BTC, a decrease of 4.49%; the exchange’s USDT balance was 2,613.72 million USDT, an increase of 5.92%; The same period last week increased by 6.01%.

Figure 10 Recent exchange BTC balance and BTC price trend

Source: TokenMania

Figure 11 Changes in the total USDT balance of the exchange

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balances are comprehensive data covering Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX and other mainstream exchanges.

5.Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

Source: Tradingview (Kraken), TokenMania

means USDT

【Note】USDTThe discount premium index is 100When it means USDTParity, index greater than 100means USDTPremium, less than 100means USDTDiscount.

6. Figure 14 Fear & Greed Index

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Figure 13 Bitcoin BVOL24H volatility at daily level

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 14 Fear & Greed Index

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the Bitcoin Volatility Index opened at 4.88, with a maximum of 6.42, a minimum of 2.98, and a closing value of 4.61. The closing value fell 5.53% from the same period last week, but it was still at the previous high; the latest point of the Fear & Greed Index was 12, the same as the previous The week-to-week period was flat, and the market sentiment remained extremely panic amid price fluctuations.

7. Futures contracts: The short-term futures discount rate has risen, and the institutional market has recoveredBXBT

Figure 15 Bitcoin futures and spot price trends in the past two weeks

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 16 Bitcoin futures premium and discount rate in the past two weeks

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is based on BitMEXBXBTSpot data for calculation

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset.For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.Figure 17 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week

Figure 17 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week

Source: TokenMania

Source: TokenMania。

Among all kinds of assets, the market value of digital currency fluctuates the most. During the process of bubble expansion and bubble burst, the price of digital currency tends to show a trend of skyrocketing and plummeting. Since 2020, the market has been affected by the liquidity crisis brought about by the global epidemic, and Bitcoin has experienced a sharp correction. Recently, with the recovery of global risk appetite, market confidence has recovered and recovered some lost ground. In the long run, digital currencies are still undervalued. As the bubbles are squeezed out, digital currencies are worthy of partial allocation as alternative assets.

Source: TokenMania

Among all kinds of assets, the market value of digital currency fluctuates the most. During the process of bubble expansion and bubble burst, the price of digital currency tends to show a trend of skyrocketing and plummeting. Since 2020, the market has been affected by the liquidity crisis brought about by the global epidemic, and Bitcoin has experienced a sharp correction. Recently, with the recovery of global risk appetite, market confidence has recovered and recovered some lost ground. In the long run, digital currencies are still undervalued. As the bubbles are squeezed out, digital currencies are worthy of partial allocation as alternative assets.

9. Summary

9. SummaryMarket trend: This week, the market fluctuated upwards and hit a new high in the near future. The currencies with large, medium and small market capitalizations rose across the board, and investor sentiment generally remained cautious.

At the beginning of the week, the market started from around 170 billion US dollars, oscillating upwards and entering the upward channel, breaking through the 1800 and 190 billion US dollars integer mark one after another, closing at above 195 billion US dollars in late trading, and the daily average value of the total market value rose by 3.09% compared with last week. In terms of external markets, the performance of major global markets was stable this week. The capital markets of many countries continued to recover and returned to a small and reasonable fluctuation. The price of Bitcoin is among the top gainers among global assets, with a weekly increase of more than 10%. At the beginning of the week, Bitcoin fluctuated below $6,500. On Thursday, the price rose rapidly. Breakthrough, after accumulating strength around $6,800, Bitcoin rose again in late trading, breaking through the $7,000 mark.

From the perspective of the market, Bitcoin broke through the bargaining chip pressure to lead the market, boosting market confidence, and the market trading volume increased in the same period, but this is an area where the chips are dense in the early stage, and the market capital is still under pressure. Before falling below the short-term moving average, you can follow the trend and continue to hold after strictly setting the stop loss point. After the continuous adjustments in the previous period, the short-term risks have been released to a large extent, and the bottom-hunting funds have formed a bottoming effect on the currency price, and the space and possibility of subsequent continued decline have been reduced; but at present, investor sentiment remains extremely panic, and peripheral capital flows Sexual demand is still tightening, and the probability of new funds entering the market is low. Several tentative upside attacks on Bitcoin this week failed to achieve an effective breakthrough. Marginal improvement has been made, and the entry of new funds has been hindered. In the short term, the overall market situation is weak, and the probability of a unilateral market is low, and the weak adjustment pattern may be maintained. At the same time, the number of contract positions has slowly recovered this week. Investors are advised to pay attention to risks and strictly control positions, optimize platforms, and prevent liquidation caused by pin insertion and platform downtime.Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the exchange decreased by 17.34%

. The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges this week was 131.441 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.34% from last week. From the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges are Huobi (39.97%), Binance (23.05%), and OKEX (21.99%). The top three exchanges account for the total trading volume of the nine exchanges. 85.00% of the trading volume, the top three accounted for a decrease of 1.45% compared to last week; Huobi’s cumulative trading volume this week decreased by 84.976 billion yuan compared to last week, a drop of 18.77%, Binance’s cumulative trading volume this week decreased by 29.079 billion yuan compared to last week, The drop was 12.06%. The cumulative trading volume of OKEX this week dropped by 66.108 billion yuan from last week, a drop of 24.63%.

The global bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 23.34% to 29.307 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 5.43% to 7.087 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 39.54% to 410.90 billion bolivars. Based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 10959.97VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 37.49052 million yuan; A 55.36% increase in the previous week.Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 9.34%.

The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week accumulated to 597.10%, a drop of 61.53% or 9.34% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 99.23%, the lowest was 77.83%, and the extreme value difference was 21.40 percentage points. The high level continued to fall; among them, the ETC turnover rate dropped the most, down 15.01% from last week.Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 4.49%, USDT balance increased by 5.92%.

This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 2,384,334 BTC, a decrease of 4.49%; the exchange’s USDT balance was 2,613.72 million USDT, an increase of 5.92%; The same period last week increased by 6.01%.USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate dropped slightly, and maintained a positive premium in late trading

. This week, the USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range and fell slightly, maintaining a positive premium in late trading. The usdt/usd trading pair on the kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.19% this week, with a maximum premium of 0.48%, a minimum premium of -0.05%, and a closing premium of 0.17%. The amplitude of the USDT premium rate this week has decreased compared with last week. At present, the premium rate has dropped from the high level during the previous period of violent price fluctuations and returned to the previous operating range.Bitcoin Volatility Index: Volatility remains relatively high, market sentiment is extremely panic

. This week, the Bitcoin Volatility Index opened at 4.88, with a maximum of 6.42, a minimum of 2.98, and a closing value of 4.61. The closing value fell 5.53% from the same period last week, but it was still at the previous high; the latest point of the Fear & Greed Index was 12, the same as the previous The week-to-week period was flat, and the market sentiment remained extremely panic amid price fluctuations.Futures contracts: The discount rate of short-term futures has risen, and the institutional market has recovered.

This week, the basis of contracts with different maturities widened again, Bakkt's open interest rose sharply, the premium of CME contracts rose, and the institutional market recovered. This week, Bakkt's open interest rose sharply. The total monthly futures trading volume was US$43 million, a decrease of 3% from last week; the largest open interest was US$6.4 million, an increase of 50% from last week. CME) contract premiums have risen, and the institutional market has recovered; from the perspective of the term structure, the average discount of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.76%, and the discount rate has increased by 0.35 percentage points; the average discount of the next week’s contracts is 0.97%, and the discount The margin increased by 0.34 percentage points; the average discount of quarterly contracts was 1.16%, and the discount rate increased by 0.33 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts was 0.01%. This week, OKEX’s latest weekly contract discount is 2.13%, and the discount rate has increased by 1.25 percentage points; the latest discount for next-week contracts is 2.29%; and the latest discount for quarterly contracts is 2.05%. As of the statistical time of the report, the 24-hour long-short ratio in the BITMEX BTC / USD margin market is 51.29%: 48.71%, and the bulls are relatively dominant. Recently, the volatility of bitcoin prices has increased, and the market is volatile. Investors are expected to pay attention to risks and control their positions.The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments.

risk warning

Price correction risk

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations

The risk of further spread of the epidemic

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

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