Shrinking and consolidating within a range, market sentiment remains cautious

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2020-03-31 08:39 (UTC+8)

This article is about 8191 words, reading the full article takes about 12 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 13th week of 2020.

AI Summary

Expand

Blockchain secondary market report for the 13th week of 2020.

Blockchain secondary market report for the 13th week of 2020

March 22, 2019 - March 30, 2020

Highlights of this report:

Highlights of this report:
This week's market trend: Shrinking consolidation range shocks, market sentiment remains cautious
Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the exchange decreased by 15.76%
Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 3.03%, USDT balance increased by 7.47%
USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading
USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading
Bitcoin Volatility Index: The VIX continues to fall, and the market remains extremely panicked
Details of this report:
Summarize

Details of this report:

1. Market trends this week:1. Market trends this week:

Shrinking consolidation range shocks, market sentiment remains panic

As of the statistical time of the report (March 30, 2019), the average total market value of global blockchain assets this week was US$180.516 billion, an increase of 11.01% from the same period last week; The mean fell by 11.36%.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is 2.68%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 3.15%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 5.98%.Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Exchange trading volume:2. Exchange trading volume:

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Nine

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

【Note】:NineBig exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi,OKEX、CoinBase、Poloniex、Bitmex、Bittrex、Bitfinex、Bithumb

Big exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi,

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets this week

Figure 8 Changes in the daily average turnover rate of the top ten assets in the past two weeks

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets this week

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (1990.07% this week, up 46.00% or 2.37% from last week), EOS (911.96% this week, down 313.36% or 25.57% from last week) , LTC (886.07% this week, down 242.08% from last week, down 21.46%). The last three in the cumulative turnover rate ranking are ADA (78.31% this week, down 16.03% from last week, down 16.99%), XRP (219.58% this week, down 29.27% from last week, down 11.76%), BTC (241.44% this week, down 53.28% from last week, down 18.08%).

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 2,499,673 BTC, an increase of 3.03%; the exchange’s USDT wallet balance was 2.467 billion USDT, an increase of 7.47%; An increase of 7.87% over the same period last week.

Figure 10 Recent exchange BTC balance and BTC price trend

Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

Figure 11 Changes in the total USDT balance of the exchange

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balances are comprehensive data covering Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX and other mainstream exchanges.

5.USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

Source: Tradingview (Kraken), TokenMania

means USDT

【Note】USDTThe discount premium index is 100When it means USDTParity, index greater than 100means USDTPremium, less than 100means USDTDiscount.

6. Figure 14 Fear & Greed Index

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Figure 13 Bitcoin BVOL24H volatility at daily level

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 14 Fear & Greed Index

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the Bitcoin Volatility Index opened at 7.75, the highest value was 10.93, the lowest value was 3.14, and the closing value was 4.88. The closing value was 37.03% lower than the same period last week, but it was still at the previous high level; the Fear & Greed Index was 11 points on the 7th. The highest point of the week was 14 points and the lowest point was 8 points. The latest point of the Fear & Greed Index was 12 points, an increase of 1 point from 11 points in the same period last week. The market sentiment remained extremely fearful.

7. Futures contracts: contract prices fluctuate in a wide range, and short positions are relatively dominantBXBT

Figure 15 Bitcoin futures and spot price trends in the past two weeks

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 16 Bitcoin futures premium and discount rate in the past two weeks

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is based on BitMEXBXBTSpot data for calculation

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset.

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset.For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.Figure 17 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week

Figure 17 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week

Source: TokenMania

Source: TokenMania。

Figure 18 Comparison of Dynamic Return Rates of Various Assets in 2020

Source: TokenMania

Among all kinds of assets, the market value of digital currency fluctuates the most. During the process of bubble expansion and bubble burst, the price of digital currency tends to show a trend of skyrocketing and plummeting. Affected by the liquidity crisis brought about by the global epidemic recently, the market experienced a sharp correction and then bottomed out. The market has gradually regained confidence in the upcoming production cuts. In the long run, digital currencies are undervalued. As the bubbles are squeezed out, digital currencies are worthy of partial allocation as alternative assets.

9. Summary

9. SummarybigDisk trend:This week, the market maintained a shrinking consolidation, market trading activity declined, and investor sentiment remained cautious.

This week, the broader market basically consolidated in the range of US$170 billion to US$190 billion, and closed at US$175.72 billion in late trading, an increase of 6.18% from the same period last week. Bitcoin maintained a shrinking and volatile market this week. The market started around $5,800 at the beginning of the week, and broke through the integer barriers of $6,000 and $6,500 one after another. The highest hit $6,879. It rebounded again and maintained above $6,000. In terms of the external market, the policies of many countries around the world continued to exert force this week, which strongly stimulated the general rise of global risk assets, ending the extreme market in the early stage. Gold recorded the largest weekly increase since 2008. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed sharply higher, and the U.S. dollar index fell back from highs. Global risk appetite gradually repaired. From the perspective of the market, this week’s market performance is relatively flat, trading activity has dropped, Bitcoin’s tentative upside failed to achieve an effective breakthrough, and the upper side is under obvious pressure. The USDT premium rate has returned to the normal operating range of the previous period. The deadline is March 31. More funds are in a wait-and-see situation, and the upward momentum has been curbed to a certain extent. The new round of the market has yet to be matched. At present, the global risk appetite has been restored, but considering that the bottom of the overseas market has not yet been confirmed, investor sentiment remains Be cautious, the probability of a unilateral market in the short term is low, and the market may maintain a range-bound market.Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the exchange decreased by 15.76%.

The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges this week was 159.071 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.29%. From the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges are Huobi (40.67%), OKEX (24.12%), and Binance (21.66%). The top three exchanges account for the total trading volume of the nine exchanges. 86.45% of the trading volume, the top three accounted for an increase of 2.12% compared with last week; Huobi’s cumulative trading volume this week decreased by 102.078 billion yuan compared with last week, a drop of 18.39%, OKEX’s cumulative trading volume this week decreased by 39.422 billion yuan compared to last week, The drop was 12.80%. The cumulative trading volume of Binance this week dropped by 45.112 billion yuan compared with last week, a drop of 15.76%.

The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 27.72% to 23.151 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 18.66% to 7.312 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 7.53% to 290.22 billion Bolivars. Based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 10183.40VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the latest week was about 28.49944 million yuan; An increase of 15.74% in the previous week.Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 14.93%.

This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 658.63%, a decrease of 115.56% or 14.93% compared with last week; the highest turnover rate was 105.59%, the lowest was 80.88%, and the extreme value difference was 24.71 percentage points. The high level continued to fall; this week only the turnover rate of ETC rose compared with the same period last week, and the turnover rate of ETC ranked first.. This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 2,499,673 BTC, an increase of 3.03%; the exchange’s USDT wallet balance was 2.467 billion USDT, an increase of 7.47%; An increase of 7.87% over the same period last week.

USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late tradingUSDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading

. The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range this week, and maintained a positive premium in late trading. The usdt/usd trading pair on the kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.11%, with a maximum premium of 0.52%, a minimum premium of 0.02%, and a closing premium of 0.23%. The volatility of the USDT premium rate this week has decreased compared with last week. The USDT premium rate remained high around the low point of the current round of BTC, and then fell back to a high level. The current premium rate has returned to the previous operating range.Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index continues to fall, and the market remains extremely panicked.

This week, Bakkt's open interest continued to decline. The total monthly Bitcoin futures transaction volume was US$44 million, a decrease of 17% from last week; the largest open interest was US$4.3 million, a decrease of 30% from last week. From the perspective of the term structure, the weekly contract price of OKEX this week changed from a premium to a discount, with an average discount of 0.41%; The average discount is 0.83%; the average discount for BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.08%. This week, OKEX’s weekly contract price has the latest discount of 0.89%, the latest discount of quarterly contract price is 1.74%, and the latest discount of BitMEX perpetual contract price is 0.04%. As of the statistical time of the report, the 24-hour long-short ratio in the BITMEX BTC / USD margin market is 49.15%: 50.85%, and the short position is relatively dominant. Recently, the volatility of bitcoin prices has increased, and the market is volatile. Investors are expected to pay attention to risks and control their positions.. This week, the Federal Reserve launched unlimited QE, the G7 group jointly stated that it will restore confidence and economic growth at all costs, and the G20 summit announced the launch of a $5 trillion economic plan. Most markets stopped falling and rose. In terms of U.S. stocks, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a $2 trillion stimulus plan this week. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed up collectively. Weekly gains, the S&P 500 rose 10.26% weekly to 2541.47 points; COMEX gold futures rose 11.42% weekly to $1651.50 an ounce, the largest weekly gain since 2008; Brent crude oil rose -3.75% weekly to US$28.25/barrel; the US dollar index fell nearly 4% this week, the largest weekly decline since March 2009. Non-U.S. currencies rose collectively; in terms of domestic stock markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.97% this week to 2772.20 points, ending the two consecutive negative weeks, the Shenzhen Component Index rose -0.40% to 10109.91 points, and the ChiNext Index rose -0.58 % reported 1903.88 points, falling for 3 consecutive weeks, and investors tended to the defensive sector with a high margin of safety; the Hang Seng Index rose 2.98% weekly to 23484.28 points. .

risk warning

The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments.

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations

The risk of further spread of the epidemic

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

disclaimer

TAMC Research Institute does not have any relationship with digital assets or other third parties involved in this report that may affect the objectivity, independence, and impartiality of the report.

The materials and data cited in this report come from compliance channels. The sources of the materials and data are considered reliable by TAMC Research Institute, and necessary verifications have been carried out for their authenticity, accuracy and completeness. However, TAMC Research Institute is not responsible for makes no warranty as to its truth, accuracy or completeness.

The content of the report is for reference only, and the facts and opinions in the report do not constitute any investment advice on relevant digital assets. TAMC Research Institute shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of the contents of this report, unless expressly stipulated by laws and regulations. Readers should not make investment decisions solely based on this report, nor should they lose the ability to make independent judgments based on this report.

The copyright of this report is only owned by TAMC Research Institute. If you want to quote the content of this report, please indicate the source. Please let me know in advance if you need to quote a lot, and use it within the scope of permission. Under no circumstances shall any quotation, abridgement and modification contrary to the original intention be made to this report.

稳定币

BTC

交易所

钱包

Welcome to Join Odaily Official Community