The logic behind USDT's continuous negative premium
This article is from:Hashpie (ID: hashpie), Author: Adeline, forwarded with authorization.
This article is from:
Hashpie (ID: hashpie)
, Author: Adeline, forwarded with authorization.
Since 2020, the price of Bitcoin has shown a continuous upward trend.
Some people say that it is due to the halving of the market, while others say that it is due to the prominent hedging properties of Bitcoin under international tensions. However, the current situation has eased, and the rise of safe-haven assets such as crude oil and gold has also "misfired", but Bitcoin is still Keep up the momentum. The data shows that from January 1, 2020 to the present (January 18, 2020), Bitcoin has risen by 23.56%. According to Global Finance reports, this has set the best performance since 2012.
Many people say "spring is here".
Bi special price change trend data source: BITSTAMP
However, behind the rally, we have observed that since mid-November last year, the over-the-counter price of the stablecoin USDT (to the RMB) has been in a state of negative premium. In layman's terms, this kind of negative premium means that we can buy USDT that is 1:1 pegged to the US dollar at an exchange rate lower than that of the US dollar against the renminbi.
The data shows that most USDT OTC in the bull market has a positive premium. For example, under the bull market of 17 years, the premium rate of USDT OTC was as high as +5.76%; and in the bear market, USDT generally has a negative premium. According to the OKEx fiat currency transaction According to the transaction data in the district, on October 16, 2018, from 1:00 p.m. to 2:30 p.m., USDT/RMB dropped directly from 6.70 to 6.20, with a premium rate of -8%. Obviously, the negative premium this time is different from the usual logic.
image description
Data source: KRAKEN"Stablecoins are not stable, and a slight negative premium is a normal phenomenon. However, it is completely different from the slight premium of USDT against the US dollar. The current price of USDT in the OTC market is 6.78 yuan. Compared with the offshore RMB exchange rate of 6.86, USDT’s current premium index It was -1.18%, and the premium index was as low as -3% around January 11, hitting a new low of more than half a year, which shows the depth of its negative premium."
Under normal circumstances, there will be a brick-moving party if there is a serious premium. When the negative premium is too high, the brick-moving party can use RMB to buy USDT through the OTC platform, and then exchange it for US dollars. profit. It stands to reason that the USDT brick-moving party will smooth out the premium through international bank accounts, so that this negative premium will not last for too long. However, this negative premium has lasted for nearly two months.
image description
Data source: ChaiNext
The USDT discount and premium index is calculated by ChaiNext based on the OTC price of USDT and the offshore RMB exchange rate. It is the percentage ratio between USDT and USD, reflecting the degree of crowding of funds entering and exiting the token market. When the index is 100, it means USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.
Moreover, the exchange rate of the dollar against the renminbi has fallen sharply recently, and the renminbi has appreciated significantly. Some people in the currency circle have ridiculed this: Even if you hold USDT in a short position, you can’t escape the fate of being cut off. It can be said that you will be shot while lying down.
You should know that in the current market, the exchange settled in US dollars is mainly Coinbase in the United States, which allows users to directly use fiat currency transactions, and users can directly recharge US dollars to the exchange to buy cryptocurrencies. Many other exchanges with large trading volumes usually settle in USDT, such as Binance, Huobi, OKEX, etc., are currency-to-currency transactions, which need to be converted into USDT over-the-counter (OTC) and then deposited in the exchange. According to the Chainalysis report, due to factors such as the general environment, 99% of bitcoin spot transactions in China are settled in USDT, which is the main channel for RMB deposits.
Therefore, from the perspective of the domestic market, the negative premium of RMB against USDT can be understood as the flight of RMB funds.
image description
text
image description
text
However, according to the above analysis of the premium of USDT to the US dollar, the premium index of USDT to the US dollar has remained relatively stable. In arbitrage, in addition to the premium, transaction costs (handling fees, etc.) need to be deducted, and the risk of excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB must also be considered. According to the data of the bitcoin trading platform KRAKEN, since 2020, the fluctuation of USDTUSD has been kept within 0.1%. At this time, USDT obviously does not constitute a considerable arbitrage space against the US dollar. Therefore, the credibility of the theory of BTC moving bricks is doubtful.
Another relatively reliable statement is that the USDT off-market negative premium is the result of a large amount of funds eager to cash out. The sharp drop in the off-market price of USDT shows that the inflow of external funds has been "broken" in stages, and off-market investors have "resistance" to entering the market. Weibo big V in the currency circle @blockchain William once posted a blog, thinking that this is due to the approach of the Chinese New Year and "selling coins for the New Year".
Screenshot of @blockchain William Weibo
image description
text
image description
Comments from netizens on Weibo
text
At the same time, he also believes that the reason why the USDT brick-moving party has not seen the negative premium leveled out this time is because of pessimistic expectations for the trend of the US dollar. The dollar has continued to weaken since December, and ABN AMRO had previously forecast that the greenback would extend its losses as trade tensions eased and the global economy showed signs of improving, dampening safe-haven demand.
image description
