Volatility stabilizes and upward pressure, gaining momentum for the new year

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2019-12-31 10:20 (UTC+8)

This article is about 7662 words, reading the full article takes about 11 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 52nd week of 2019

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Blockchain secondary market report for the 52nd week of 2019

Blockchain secondary market report for the 52nd week of 2019

Highlights of this report:

Highlights of this report:

This week's market trend: volatility stabilizes and upward pressure, gaining momentum and gathering energy for the new year
Exchange trading volume: The average weekly trading volume of the exchange decreased by 20.44%
Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 0.15%, USDT balance was 1.950 billion
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 0.34%
USDT premium rate: USDT premium rate continues to decline
Bitcoin Volatility Index: VIX Remains Low, Investor Panic Ebbs
Futures contracts: Short-term futures discounts turn to premiums, and the market long-short ratio is close to equilibrium
Details of this report:
Summarize

Details of this report:

1. This week's market trend: fluctuations stabilize and upward pressure, gaining momentum and gathering energy for the new year

As of the statistical time of the report (December 30, 2019), the daily average value of the total market value of global blockchain assets this week was US$198.27 billion, an increase of 2.44% from the average value of last week; The weekly average fell 0.93%.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is 3.37%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is -1.40%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 0.51%.

This week, the market maintained shrinking and fluctuated within a narrow range, the USDT premium rate continued to decline, and investor fears subsided. At the beginning of the week, the market surged to US$200 billion for a short period of time, and a large number of short-sellers liquidated their positions. Afterwards, the market was under pressure and fell back to US$195 billion. Look, the decline in the U.S. dollar index this week has boosted demand for alternative assets. Gold recorded its largest weekly gain in four months. Bitcoin closed weakly. During the period, there were many tentative attacks but were quickly suppressed. The upward direction has not been recognized by the market ;Since the large-scale decline in November, the market trading atmosphere has been flat, and the overall situation of box shocks has been maintained. At the end of the year, liquidity has tightened. Obviously, before the volume can cooperate to determine the market direction, it is still necessary to gradually test the suppression on the upper track. At the same time, the short-term risks have been released after the smooth delivery of the contract. In the short term, it may maintain a weak and volatile pattern; in the long run, the current mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin The overall stable adjustment is gaining momentum, and the price is still relatively low. With the halving market in the new year, the market center is expected to continue to move up, or to show a fluctuating upward trend.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Exchange trading volume: the average weekly trading volume of the exchange decreased by 20.44%

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer-term perspective, the daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the first quarter of this year basically fluctuated around 40 billion yuan. In the second quarter, the trading volume exceeded 140 billion yuan in early April, and the market turnover in May-June hit consecutive records. New highs, the daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges once exceeded the high point of 430 billion yuan; since July, the market trading volume has shown a continuous shock and shrinking trend, and the average daily trading volume has dropped below 100 billion yuan; Bitcoin quickly rose once at the end of October Breaking through above US$10,000, the daily trading volume broke through 300 billion yuan to hit a high, and then the market trading volume continued to fall again; affected by the tightening of supervision, the currency price fell in a panic at the end of November, and then the daily trading volume continued to slump; After the market price rose slightly last week and the trading volume exceeded 200 billion yuan, the exchange trading volume returned to a low level again this week. Considering the current trading volume behavior in major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 0.15%, USDT balance was 1.950 billion

This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 642,600 BTC, a decrease of 7,300 BTC or 0.15% compared with the same period last week; the exchange’s USDT wallet balance was 1.95 billion USDT (newly added TRC20). Tether increased by 0.53% this week, and the current total USDT circulation (including ERC-20, TRC-20) is $4.709 billion.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balances are comprehensive data covering Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX and other mainstream exchanges.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balances are comprehensive data covering Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX and other mainstream exchanges.

4. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets increased by 0.34%

This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 403.21%, a decrease of 0.34% or 0.08% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 61.96%, the lowest was 53.58%, and the extreme value difference was 8.39 percentage points. This week's market trading activity is basically the same as last week, among which ETC has increased in volume, and the turnover rate has risen the most.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

Source: Tradingview (Kraken), TokenMania

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

Source: Tradingview (Kraken), TokenMania

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Figure 13 Bitcoin BVOL24H volatility at daily level

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 14 Fear & Greed Index

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the Bitcoin volatility index showed a trend of rising and falling, which was higher than that of the same period last week, but it was still in the early depression. The opening value was 1.16, the highest value was 3.31, and the closing value was 1.57. The greed index was 20 points on the 7th, the highest point this week was 39 points, and the lowest point was 22 points. The latest fear & greed index point was 37 points, an increase of 17 points from 20 points in the same period last week. Investor fears have receded as market price volatility moves toward "stabilization."

7. Futures contracts: Short-term futures discounts turn to premiums, and the market long-short ratio is close to equilibrium

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Figure 15 Bitcoin futures and spot price trends in the past two weeks

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 16 Bitcoin futures premium and discount rate in the past two weeks

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

Source: TokenMania

Figure 17 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week

Source: TokenMania

Comparing the dynamic rate of return of various assets in the past three years, the performance of Bitcoin is thriving. In the past three years, the dynamic rate of return of Bitcoin is 1118.14%, ranking first among all types of assets, and there is a large gap with the rate of return of other assets. Except for digital currencies, other asset yields were divided. U.S. stocks performed relatively well. The S&P 500 Index rose by 42.80%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 64.13%. In addition, the Hang Seng Index rose by 29.74%, and gold rose by 33.31%.

Source: TokenMania

9. Summary

9. Summary

Market trend: This week, the market maintained a narrow range of shrinking volume, the USDT premium rate continued to decline, and investor fears subsided.At the beginning of the week, the market surged to US$200 billion for a short period of time, and a large number of short-sellers liquidated their positions. Afterwards, the market was under pressure and fell back to US$195 billion. Look, the decline in the U.S. dollar index this week has boosted demand for alternative assets. Gold recorded its largest weekly gain in four months. Bitcoin closed weakly. During the period, there were many tentative attacks but were quickly suppressed. The upward direction has not been recognized by the market ;Since the large-scale decline in November, the market trading atmosphere has been flat, and the overall situation of box shocks has been maintained. At the end of the year, liquidity has tightened. Obviously, before the volume can cooperate to determine the market direction, it is still necessary to gradually test the suppression on the upper track. At the same time, the short-term risks have been released after the smooth delivery of the contract. In the short term, it may maintain a weak and volatile pattern; in the long run, the current mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin The overall stable adjustment is gaining momentum, and the price is still relatively low. With the halving market in the new year, the market center is expected to continue to move up, or to show a fluctuating upward trend.

Exchange trading volume: The average weekly trading volume of exchanges decreased by 20.44%. This week, the average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges was 85.447 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.44%.From the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges are Huobi (45.40%), OKEX (24.75%), and Binance (13.76%). The trading volume of the top three exchanges accounts for the total volume of the nine exchanges 83.91% of the trading volume, the top three accounted for an increase of 1.21% compared to last week; Huobi’s cumulative trading volume this week decreased by 59.951 billion yuan compared with last week, a drop of 18.09%, OKEX’s cumulative trading volume this week decreased by 35.774 billion yuan compared to last week, The drop was 19.46%. Binance’s cumulative trading volume this week dropped by 15.509 billion yuan from last week, a drop of 15.85%.

Judging from the global trading volume of LocalBitcoins, the global bitcoin over-the-counter trading volume increased by 9.09% to 36.609 million US dollars, China's bitcoin over-the-counter trading volume increased by 4.71% to 12.284 million yuan, and Venezuela's bitcoin over-the-counter trading volume increased by 18.46% to 248.02 billion bolivars, calculated based on the current exchange rate between Venezuelan bolivars and RMB (1 CNY = 6549.33VES), the off-exchange BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 37,869,650 yuan; the off-exchange BTC transactions calculated at the current exchange rate in the previous statistical week The volume is about 31.46764 million yuan, an increase of 20.34% in the latest week compared with the previous week.

Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 0.15%, and USDT balance was 1.950 billion.This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 642,600 BTC, a decrease of 7,300 BTC or 0.15% compared with the same period last week; the exchange’s USDT wallet balance was 1.95 billion USDT (newly added TRC20). Tether increased by 0.53% this week, and the current total USDT circulation (including ERC-20, TRC-20) is $4.709 billion.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 0.34%.This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 403.21%, a decrease of 0.34% or 0.08% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 61.96%, the lowest was 53.58%, and the extreme value difference was 8.39 percentage points. This week's market trading activity is basically the same as last week, among which ETC has increased in volume, and the turnover rate has risen the most.

USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate continues to decline.This week, the USDT discount and premium on the kraken exchange continued to decline this week, and the closing price maintained a negative premium. The usdt/usd trading pair this week opened at a premium of 0.03%, the lowest premium was -0.40%, and the closing premium was -0.21%. The recent USDT transaction premium rate has repeatedly hit new lows , the current premium level is the lowest in nearly March, and there are signs of market funds leaving the market in the short term.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: VIX Remains Low as Investor Panic Ebbs.This week, the Bitcoin volatility index showed a trend of rising and falling, which was higher than that of the same period last week, but it was still in the early depression. The opening value was 1.16, the highest value was 3.31, and the closing value was 1.57. The greed index was 20 points on the 7th, the highest point this week was 39 points, and the lowest point was 22 points. The latest fear & greed index point was 37 points, an increase of 17 points from 20 points in the same period last week. Investor fears have receded as market price volatility moves toward "stabilization."

Futures contracts: Short-term futures discounts have turned to premiums, and the long-short ratio in the market is close to equilibrium.Futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range this week, and turned into a premium at the end of the day. The overall basis was in a state of convergence, and the long-short ratio in the market was close to equilibrium. From the perspective of the term structure, the weekly contract price of OKEX this week changed from a discount to a premium, with an average premium of 0.09%; the contract price of the next week changed from a discount to a premium, with an average premium of 0.06%; The average premium is 0.91%; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.04%. This week, OKEX’s latest weekly contract price discount is 0.02%; the next week’s contract price latest discount is 0.12%; quarterly contract’s latest discount is 1.09%, with a premium increase of 0.50 percentage points; the latest BitMEX perpetual contract price discount is 0.05%; as of the statistical time , the BITMEX perpetual contract long-short ratio is 49.40%:50.60%, the current long-short ratio is close to equilibrium again, and short funds are relatively dominant. Recently, the long-short ratio in the futures market has changed significantly, and there are relatively large human interference factors in the market. Under the market volatility, investors are expected to control risks.

Macro perspective: Yields of various assets generally rose this week, the sharp drop in the U.S. dollar index boosted the demand for alternative assets, and the prices of gold and Bitcoin roserisk warning

risk warning

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Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

disclaimer

TAMC Research Institute does not have any relationship with digital assets or other third parties involved in this report that may affect the objectivity, independence, and impartiality of the report.

The materials and data cited in this report come from compliance channels. The sources of the materials and data are considered reliable by TAMC Research Institute, and necessary verifications have been carried out for their authenticity, accuracy and completeness. However, TAMC Research Institute is not responsible for makes no warranty as to its truth, accuracy or completeness.

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The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments.

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