Market Analysis: Will USDT become a black swan?

特邀专栏作者

2019-11-06 20:24 (UTC+8)

This article is about 3177 words, reading the full article takes about 5 minutes

For a short time, Bitcoin made a slight correction, but the broader market rebounded slightly, and altcoins performed strongly.

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For a short time, Bitcoin made a slight correction, but the broader market rebounded slightly, and altcoins performed strongly.

Abstract: For a short period of time, Bitcoin made a slight correction, but the broader market rebounded slightly, and altcoins performed strongly. Recently, an academic paper on USDT manipulating the market has attracted attention, and investors should not worry too much. In addition, there are two good news in the industry today, which may be fermented in a short time.

According to the statistics of QKL123, at 13:00 on November 06, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,784.937 billion yuan, with a 24-hour total market value increase or decrease of -0.01%, and a total turnover of 627.057 billion yuan, with a total turnover change of -2.14% , the market activity decreased slightly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 13083.59 points, with a 24-hour change of +0.51%, reflecting a slight rebound in the broader market; the Bitcoin Strength Index reported 93.68 points, a 24-hour change of -3.09%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market has changed significantly. Weak; the Alternative sentiment index is 53, a slight decrease from yesterday (54), and the market sentiment is neutral.

Among the top ten encrypted assets by market capitalization (excluding USDT), EOS has the largest 24-hour increase (+4.24%), and XLM has the largest 24-hour decrease (-1.31%). USDT’s 24-hour change is -0.58%, and the current net inflow of funds today is 48.3749 million yuan, which is a decrease from yesterday ; The ChaiNext USDT OTC discount and premium index reported 100.05, with a 24-hour change of +0.00%.

Analyst view:

At present, Bitcoin is above the 200-day moving average, and the market is facing a good trend, and there is a positive expectation of halving in the next six months. The market will generally get out of the halving market (shock upward). As shown in the figure, historically, there has been an adjustment or rising period before the halving. Although there are long-term benefits of interest rate cuts in various countries in the near future, investors still need to be alert to the occurrence of small probability events. For example, there is still no news about the USDT hearing that was postponed for three months at the end of July. Recently, the USDT thunder has fermented again.

This week, an article about USDT’s suspected market manipulation, which will be published in the top financial journal “The Journal of Finance”, has attracted widespread attention. The paper pointed out that during the bull market in 2017, when the price fell, a "large player" on the Bitfinex (USDT related party) trading platform used USDT to purchase a large amount of Bitcoin, which caused the market price to be significantly affected, while Further created price bubbles or distortions.

The market has already digested this news. On the one hand, rumors about Bitfinex and USDT have been exposed since 2017. For example, in November 2017, the "New York Times" reported that the USDT team may over-issue Tether and use the over-issued Tether to hype Bitcoin. ; In February 2018, the recording of the conversation between Tether and the Bitfinex team was exposed. The recording showed that the two parties were discussing bank fraud, money laundering, and even admitting to financial fraud; the USDT hearing in 2019 was suspected of illegal embezzlement of funds and illegal operations. On the other hand, during the bear market in 2018, such bad news will accelerate the bursting of the bubble, and there is no direct evidence that the super-issued Tether has also been used to buy Bitcoin in the near future.

Therefore, even if the conclusion in the paper is confirmed by conclusive evidence in the future, its impact on the current market price trend is relatively limited: short-term positive, bear the brunt of USDT, which will cause USDT to rush to be the first to run into encrypted assets; short-term negative, in the absence of supervision Under certain conditions, it will deal a blow to the confidence of the industry, which will cause some investors to choose to withdraw; the long-term impact will be small, and the compliant anchor currency will gradually replace the position of USDT.

1. Spot BTC market

1. Funding

2. Fundamentals

2. Spot ETH market

Recently, ETH reached as high as $195, and there was a slight increase in volume in a short period of time, but it has not yet fallen significantly. The ETH/BTC trading pair has gone up, and its short-term performance is relatively strong.

1. Funds

2. Fundamentals

3. Spot LTC market

1. Funding

2. Fundamentals

4. Spot EOS market

1. Funding

2. Fundamentals

secondary title