Narrow box shock, ready to wait for the direction

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2019-11-04 23:38 (UTC+8)

This article is about 7829 words, reading the full article takes about 12 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 44th week of 2019

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Blockchain secondary market report for the 44th week of 2019

Blockchain secondary market report for the 44th week of 2019

Highlights of this report:

Highlights of this report:

Market trend: Shock within a narrow range, ready to wait for the direction
Trading volume of the nine major exchanges: the cumulative trading volume of the exchanges increased by 60.74%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 4.25%
Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 7.40%, USDT balance decreased by 15.38%
OTC premium rate: The USDT premium rate has declined slightly, and the OTC discount and premium index has dropped
Bitcoin Volatility Index: VIX Pulls Back Sharply, Sentiment Remains Greedy
Futures contracts: Short-term futures discounts turn to premiums, and long positions maintain their advantage
From a macro perspective, the Fed cut interest rates as scheduled, and the yields of various assets generally rose
Details of this report:

Details of this report:

1. The trend of the broader market: oscillating in a narrow range, waiting for the direction

As of the statistical time of the report (November 4, 2019), the total market value of global blockchain assets this week was US$248.44 billion, an increase of US$1.38 billion or 0.56% from the US$247.06 billion in the same period last week; the market traded 24 hours a day this week The daily average volume was 104.34 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 44.84 billion U.S. dollars, or 75.38%, from last week's 59.49 billion U.S. dollars.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is -2.14%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 2.06%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 2.24%.

This week, the market remained volatile within a narrow range, the market turnover can gradually fall from the high level, and investor sentiment remains greedy. This week, the broader market basically maintained a shock consolidation between US$240 billion and US$255 billion. On Thursday, it dropped to US$241.4 billion for a short time, and then quickly rebounded to repair above US$248 billion. It closed at US$248.44 billion in late trading, an increase from the same period last week 0.56%; Bitcoin remained weak and volatile this week, and it tested downward several times. The support at the bottom of 9,000 US dollars was effective; from the perspective of the market, short-term risks have been released to a certain extent after the market has gone through the profit-making phase and the market has improved. Better liquidity has given Bitcoin sufficient support, and the probability of a breakout in the market outlook is low; the current market sentiment has risen, but the probability of continued upward movement is low, and it is necessary to fully change hands after the shock of the box to attract more incremental funds Inflows will accumulate strength for the later rise; in the long run, mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin are still at low valuations, and may maintain a volatile upward trend.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 2 Bitcoin price changes this week

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Trading volume of the nine major exchanges: the cumulative trading volume of the exchanges increased by 60.74%

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer-term perspective, the daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the first quarter of this year basically fluctuated around 40 billion yuan. In the second quarter, the trading volume exceeded 140 billion yuan in early April, and the market turnover in May-June hit consecutive records. New high, the daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges once exceeded the high point of 430 billion yuan; since July, the market trading volume has shown a continuous shock and shrinking trend, and the average daily trading volume has dropped below 100 billion yuan; Bitcoin has risen rapidly since last week Breaking through upwards, after the daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges broke through 300 billion yuan and hit a recent high, the trading volume showed a trend of rising and falling this week, with an average daily trading volume of 165.944 billion. Considering the current trading volume behavior in major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets increased by 4.25%

The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week accumulated to 355.08%, an increase of 14.49% or 4.25% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 59.38%, the lowest was 41.99%, and the extreme value difference was 17.38 percentage points. Boosted by the good news, after the market volume can be greatly enlarged, the trading activity continued to fall from the high level this week.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets this week

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 7.40%, USDT balance decreased by 15.38%

This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 549,200 BTC, a decrease of 43,900 BTC or 7.40% from the same period last week; the exchange’s USDT wallet balance was 1.099 billion USDT, a decrease of 200 million USDT or 15.38% from the same period last week. Tether issued 71.78 million USDT this week, an increase of 1.64%. The current total USDT circulation (including ERC-20, TRC-20) is 4.45105 billion USD.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: CHAINEXT, TokenMania

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

Source: Tradingview (Kraken), TokenMania

Figure 13 USDT discount premium index

Source: CHAINEXT, TokenMania

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the Bitcoin price volatility index fell back sharply to the point range before the surge last week. The opening value was 10.96, the highest value was 11.61, the lowest value was 2.00, and the closing value was 2.00. The closing value was down 81.75% from the same period last week; Fear & Greed The index was 53 points before the 7th, the highest point of this week was 54 points, and the lowest point was 49 points. The latest point of the fear & greed index was 51 points, which was 2 points lower than the 53 points in the same period last week. With the recent market recovery, investor sentiment remained greedy.

7. Futures contracts: Short-term futures discounts turn to premiums, and long positions maintain their advantage

From the perspective of futures contracts, the long-short expectations of the market have switched frequently this week, and the discount has turned into a premium at the end of the day.. From the perspective of the term structure, the weekly contract price of OKEX this week changed from a discount to a premium, with an average premium of 0.33%; the contract price of the next week changed from a discount to a premium, with an average premium of 0.22%; Premium, with an average premium of 1.40%; BitMEX perpetual contract average premium of 0.05%; from the perspective of long-short comparison of Bitcoin futures, as of the statistical time, BITMEX long-short pair 51.09%:48.91%, long-short funds continue to play games, and the bulls are relatively dominant ;As the price of Bitcoin increases, the market expects the market outlook to switch frequently, and the market is volatile. Investors are expected to pay attention to risks.

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

All kinds of risk assets generally rose this week. The Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut as scheduled, and the US stock index closed up and hit a new high.In terms of U.S. stocks, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher this week. The Nasdaq rose 1.74% to 8386.40 points; the Dow rose 1.44% to 27347.36 points; The S&P 500 Index hit a record closing high, and the Chinese concept stock Xunlei rose by nearly 15%, and it has risen by more than 160% in the past two weeks; COMEX gold futures rose 0.41% in the week to US$1,516.93 per ounce, hitting a new closing high in five consecutive weeks; domestic stock markets On the one hand, the three major stock indexes collectively received red this week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.11% to 2958.20 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47% to 9802.33 points; It rose 1.63% to 27100.76 points; the net inflow of northbound funds in the past week was 27.873 billion yuan.

This week, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the range of the federal funds rate to 1.5%-1.75%, in line with market consensus expectations. This rate cut is the third rate cut by the Fed since December 2008; Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and many other central banks have announced interest rate cut decisions.

Source: TokenMania

Comparing the dynamic rate of return of various assets in the past three years, the performance of Bitcoin is thriving. In the past three years, the dynamic rate of return of Bitcoin is 1404.25%, ranking first among all types of assets, and there is a large gap with the rate of return of other assets. Except for digital currencies, other asset yields were divided. U.S. stocks performed relatively well. The S&P 500 Index rose by 45.23%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 62.73%. In addition, the Hang Seng Index rose by 17.08%, and gold rose by 17.34%.

Source: TokenMania

9. Market Summary

The market trend: This week the market will maintain a narrow range, the market turnover will gradually fall from the high level, and the investor sentiment will remain greedy. This week, the broader market basically maintained a shock consolidation between US$240 billion and US$255 billion. On Thursday, it dropped to US$241.4 billion for a short time, and then quickly rebounded to repair above US$248 billion. It closed at US$248.44 billion in late trading, an increase from the same period last week 0.56%; Bitcoin remained weak and volatile this week, and it tested downward several times. The support at the bottom of $9,000 was effective; from the perspective of the market, short-term risks have been released to a certain extent after the market has gone through the profit-making stage and the callback has been realized. Market expectations have improved and Better liquidity has given Bitcoin sufficient support, and the probability of a breakout in the market outlook is low; the current market sentiment has risen, but the probability of continued upward movement is low, and it is necessary to fully change hands after the shock of the box to attract more incremental funds Inflows will accumulate strength for the later rise; in the long run, mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin are still at low valuations, and may maintain a volatile upward trend.

Trading volume on exchanges: The cumulative trading volume on exchanges increased by 60.74%.The cumulative total turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 1,161.610 billion yuan, an increase of 438.924 billion yuan or 60.74% from last week. The average daily turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 165.944 billion yuan. From the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges are Huobi (41.59%), OKEX (24.01%), and BitMEX (17.64%). The top three exchanges account for the total trading volume of the nine exchanges. 83.24% of the trading volume, the top three accounted for a decrease of 0.98% compared with last week; Huobi’s cumulative trading volume this week increased by 183.808 billion yuan compared with last week, an increase of 61.40%, OKEX’s cumulative trading volume this week increased by 95.313 billion yuan compared to last week, The increase was 51.91%. The cumulative trading volume of BitMEX this week increased by 79.15 billion yuan compared with last week, an increase of 62.95%.

From the global trading volume of LocalBitcoins, the global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 0.66% to 38.23 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 18.55% to 13.843 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 15.64% to 38.23 million US dollars. 93.54 billion bolivars, calculated based on the current exchange rate between Venezuelan bolivars and RMB (1 CNY = 3321.30VES), the off-site BTC trading volume in the last week was about 28.16511 million yuan.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 31.40%.The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week accumulated to 355.08%, an increase of 14.49% or 4.25% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 59.38%, the lowest was 41.99%, and the extreme value difference was 17.38 percentage points. After the good news boosted the market volume to be greatly enlarged, the trading activity continued to fall from the high level this week. The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (814.02% this week, up 21.33% or 2.69% from last week), LTC (665.43% this week, up 9.21% or 1.40% from last week) , EOS (576.73% this week, down 22.85% from last week, down 3.81%).

Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 7.40%, USDT balance decreased by 15.38%.This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 549,200 BTC, a decrease of 43,900 BTC or 7.40% from the same period last week; the exchange’s USDT wallet balance was 1.099 billion USDT, a decrease of 200 million USDT or 15.38% from the same period last week. Tether issued 71.78 million USDT this week, an increase of 1.64%. The current total USDT circulation (including ERC-20, TRC-20) is 4.45105 billion USD.

USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fell slightly, and the OTC discount and premium index went down.The USDT premium rate on the kraken exchange dropped this week and maintained a positive premium at the end of the session. The usdt/usd trading pair on the kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.28% this week, with a maximum premium of 0.40%, a minimum premium of 0.00%, and a closing premium of 0.11%; The premium index fell to a low point of 99.8878 for a short time at the opening of this week, then quickly rebounded and rushed to a high point of 100.7712 points, and then continued to fluctuate lower, closing below 100 points in late trading, with an opening value of 100.6626 points, a minimum value of 99.8878 points, and a maximum value of 100.7712 points, to close at 99.9755 points.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index has fallen sharply, and market sentiment remains greedy.This week, the Bitcoin price volatility index fell back sharply to the point range before the surge last week. The opening value was 10.96, the highest value was 11.61, the lowest value was 2.00, and the closing value was 2.00. The closing value was down 81.75% from the same period last week; Fear & Greed The index was 53 points before the 7th, the highest point of this week was 54 points, and the lowest point was 49 points. The latest point of the fear & greed index was 51 points, which was 2 points lower than the 53 points in the same period last week. With the recent market recovery, investor sentiment remained greedy.

Futures contracts: Short-term futures discounts turn to premiums, and long positions maintain their advantage. From the perspective of futures contracts, the long-short expectations of the market have switched frequently this week, and the discount has turned into a premium at the end of the day. From the perspective of the term structure, the weekly contract price of OKEX this week changed from a discount to a premium, with an average premium of 0.33%; the contract price of the next week changed from a discount to a premium, with an average premium of 0.22%; Premium, with an average premium of 1.40%; BitMEX perpetual contract average premium of 0.05%; from the perspective of long-short comparison of Bitcoin futures, as of the statistical time, BITMEX long-short pair 51.09%:48.91%, long-short funds continue to play games, and the bulls are relatively dominant ;As the price of Bitcoin increases, the market expects the market outlook to switch frequently, and the market is volatile. Investors are expected to pay attention to risks.

Macro perspective: Various risk assets generally rose this week, the Federal Reserve announced interest rate cuts as scheduled, and the US stock index closed up and hit a new high. In terms of U.S. stocks, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher this week. The Nasdaq rose 1.74% to 8386.40 points; the Dow rose 1.44% to 27347.36 points; The S&P 500 Index hit a record closing high, and the Chinese concept stock Xunlei rose by nearly 15%, and it has risen by more than 160% in the past two weeks; COMEX gold futures rose 0.41% on a weekly basis to 1516.93 US dollars per ounce, hitting a new closing high in five consecutive weeks; domestic stock markets On the one hand, the three major stock indexes collectively received reds this week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.11% weekly to 2958.20 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47% weekly to 9802.33 points; It rose 1.63% to 27100.76 points; the net inflow of northbound funds in the past week was 27.873 billion yuan.

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Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

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TAMC Research Institute does not have any relationship with digital assets or other third parties involved in this report that may affect the objectivity, independence, and impartiality of the report.

The materials and data cited in this report come from compliance channels. The sources of the materials and data are considered reliable by TAMC Research Institute, and necessary verifications have been carried out for their authenticity, accuracy and completeness. However, TAMC Research Institute is not responsible for makes no warranty as to its truth, accuracy or completeness.

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