Heavy-volume breakthrough hits new highs, and the market maintains an upward trend

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2019-10-28 20:59 (UTC+8)

This article is about 8019 words, reading the full article takes about 12 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 43rd week of 2019.

AI Summary

Expand

Blockchain secondary market report for the 43rd week of 2019.

Blockchain secondary market report for the 43rd week of 2019

Highlights of this report:

Highlights of this report:

The trend of the market: heavy volume breaks through and hits a new high, and the market maintains an upward trend
Trading volume of the nine major exchanges: the cumulative trading volume of the exchanges increased by 55.20%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 31.40%
Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 0.38%, USDT balance decreased by 22.34%
Over-the-counter premium rate: The USDT premium rate rose slightly, and the off-site discount premium index soared and fell back
Bitcoin Volatility Index: VIX moves sharply higher, sentiment turns neutral
Futures contracts: Contract prices fluctuate in a wide range, and short-term market bullish expectations increase
Macro perspective: the returns of various assets are generally rising, and the performance of Bitcoin is thriving
Details of this report:

Details of this report:

1. The trend of the broader market: heavy volume breaks through and hits new highs, and the market maintains an upward trend

As of the statistical time of the report (October 27, 2019), the total market value of global blockchain assets this week was US$247.15 billion, an increase of US$24.58 billion or 11.04% from the US$222.57 billion in the same period last week; the market 24-hour trading volume was 1507.6 billion, an increase of US$99.77 billion, or 195.65%, from US$50.99 billion in the same period last week.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is 12.12%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 15.17%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 21.35%.

This week, the large-scale market broke through the big positive line and hit a new high in the past month. The market turnover increased significantly, and the currencies with large, medium and small market capitalizations rose across the board, and the market sentiment tended to be greedy.At the beginning of the week, the market continued last week and fluctuated slightly below 225 billion US dollars. On Wednesday, it fell rapidly and barely stayed above 200 billion US dollars. On Saturday, the market entered an upward channel. Affected by the good news, it broke through 2200, 2400 and 260 billion US dollars one after another The integer mark once touched 260.3 billion U.S. dollars, and then closed back to 247.15 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 11.04% from the end of last week. This week, Bitcoin once broke through the $10,000 mark to lead the market, and investor sentiment was high. From the perspective of volume, this attack is extremely aggressive. It regained the lost ground in the early stage and reached a new level. All the sets were unraveled, the support levels of various indicators moved up, and the market made a directional choice; although the price FOMO sentiment subsided and the process of cashing out the profit-making chips saw a slight correction, the overall lower support was effective, and the improvement in fundamentals this week will bring The long-term and sustained positive impact will lead to more new industrial growth points. At the same time, it is expected to bring huge incremental funds and user groups to the virtual currency, attracting more institutional investors to enter the market; in the long run, Bitcoin is still under valuation Low, will maintain a shock upward trend.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 2 Bitcoin price changes this week

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Trading volume of the nine major exchanges: the cumulative trading volume of the exchanges increased by 55.20%

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer-term perspective, the daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the first quarter of this year basically fluctuated around 40 billion yuan. In the second quarter, the trading volume exceeded 140 billion yuan in early April, and the market turnover in May-June hit consecutive records. New high, the daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges once exceeded the high point of 430 billion yuan; since July, the market volume has shown a continuous shock and shrinking trend, and the average daily trading volume has dropped below 100 billion yuan. The daily average trading volume exceeded 100 billion yuan for a short time, and the daily market trading volume continued to decline in the past month. With the rapid rise of Bitcoin this Saturday, it once broke above $10,000, and the daily trading volume of the sample exchanges jumped to above 200 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume this week returned to 100 billion yuan. Considering the current trading volume behavior in major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets increased by 31.40%

This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 340.59%, an increase of 81.39% or 31.40% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 76.42%, the lowest was 34.77%, and the extreme value difference was 41.65 percentage points. Activity has risen sharply from previous lows.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets this week

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 0.38%, USDT balance decreased by 22.34%

This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 593,151 BTC, an increase of 2,253 BTC or 0.38% from the same period last week; the exchange’s USDT wallet balance was 1.299 billion USDT, a decrease of 374 million USDT or 22.34% from the same period last week. Tether issued an additional 87.98 million USDT this week, an increase of 2.05%. The current total USDT circulation (including the ERC-20 version of USDT) is 4.37927 billion USD.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: CHAINEXT, TokenMania

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

Source: Tradingview (Kraken), TokenMania

Figure 13 USDT discount premium index

Source: CHAINEXT, TokenMania

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the bitcoin price volatility index rose sharply compared with last week, hitting a new high in the past three months. The opening value was 2.16, the highest value was 11.61, the lowest value was 1.36, and the closing value was 10.96. The closing value was 407.41% higher than the same period last week; The Fear & Greed Index was 37 points on the 7th, the highest this week was 53 points, the emotion is greed, the lowest is 20 points, the emotion is extreme fear. The latest point of the Fear & Greed Index is 50, an increase of 13 points from 37 points in the same period last week. As the positive news boosted the price of Bitcoin, investor sentiment turned from fear to neutral.

7. Futures contracts: Contract prices fluctuate in a wide range, and short-term market bullish expectations increase

From the perspective of futures contracts, the basis difference of contracts with different maturities expanded again this week, and the prices of forward contracts fluctuated higher, turning into a premium at the end of the day, and the bullish expectations in the short-term market increased.This week’s futures and spot prices rose rapidly, and a large number of short funds once liquidated their positions; from the perspective of the term structure, the average discount of the weekly contract price of OKEX this week was 0.76%; the average discount of the next week’s contract price was 0.68%; The discount is 0.26%; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contract is 0.04%. From the perspective of long-short comparison of Bitcoin futures, as of the statistical time, the long-short ratio of BITMEX is 50.03%: 49.97%. ;As the price of Bitcoin increases, the market expects the market outlook to switch frequently, and the market is volatile. Investors are expected to pay attention to risks.

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

8.From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

This week, various risk assets generally went up, the yield of Bitcoin rose sharply, and the blockchain sector of the stock market collectively rose.In terms of U.S. stocks, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher this week. The Nasdaq rose 1.90% to 8243.12 points; the Dow rose 0.70% to 26958.06 points; The stock blockchain sector collectively rose sharply, and Xunlei rose 107.76% in late trading; COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% weekly to $1,506.70 per ounce; in terms of domestic stock markets, the three major stock indexes collectively closed in red this week, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.57% weekly , reported 2954.93 points; Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.33% weekly to 9660.44 points; ChiNext Index rose 1.62% weekly to 1675.34 points; Hang Seng Index rose -0.20% weekly to 26667.39 points; the net inflow of northbound funds in the past week was 7.078 billion Yuan.

This week, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China conducted the 18th collective study on the development status and trends of blockchain technology. When hosting the study, state leaders emphasized that the integrated application of blockchain technology plays an important role in new technological innovation and industrial transformation. important role. It is necessary to use blockchain as an important breakthrough for independent innovation of core technologies, clarify the main direction of attack, increase investment, focus on overcoming a number of key core technologies, and accelerate the development of blockchain technology and industrial innovation.

Source: TokenMania

Comparing the dynamic rate of return of various assets in the past three years, the performance of Bitcoin is thriving. In the past three years, the dynamic rate of return of Bitcoin is 1403.27%, ranking first among all types of assets, and there is a large gap with the rate of return of other assets. Except for digital currencies, other asset yields were divided. U.S. stocks performed relatively well. The S&P 500 Index rose by 41.03%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 56.02%. In addition, the Hang Seng Index rose by 13.16%, and gold rose by 18.19%.

Source: TokenMania

9. Market Summary

9. Market Summary

The trend of the market: This week, the market broke through the big positive line in heavy volume, hitting a new high in the past month, the market turnover increased significantly, the large, medium and small market capitalization currencies rose in an all-round way, and the market sentiment tended to be greedy. At the beginning of the week, the market continued last week and fluctuated slightly below 225 billion US dollars. On Wednesday, it fell rapidly and barely stayed above 200 billion US dollars. On Saturday, the market entered an upward channel. Affected by the good news, it broke through 2200, 2400 and 260 billion US dollars one after another The integer mark once touched 260.3 billion U.S. dollars, and then pulled back to close at 247.15 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 11.04% from last weekend; this week, Bitcoin once broke through the 10,000 U.S. dollar mark to lead the market. The attack is extremely powerful, and it regained the lost ground in the early stage in one fell swoop and reached a new level. In the past month, all the lock-ups have been basically released, the support levels of various indicators have moved up, and the market has made directional choices; There has been a slight correction in the process of cashing out the bargaining chips, but the overall support below is effective. This week’s fundamental improvement will bring long-term and sustained positive effects. At the same time, it is expected to bring huge incremental funds and user groups to the virtual currency, attracting more institutions Investors enter the market. In the long run, Bitcoin is still at a low valuation and will maintain a volatile upward trend.

Trading volume of exchanges: The cumulative trading volume of exchanges increased by 55.20%.The cumulative total turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 725.552 billion yuan, an increase of 258.062 billion yuan or 55.20% from last week. The average daily turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 103.650 billion yuan. From the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges with the highest trading volume are Huobi (41.42%), OKEX (25.41%), and BitMEX (17.40%); Huobi’s cumulative trading volume this week increased by 113.664 billion yuan compared with last week , an increase of 60.83%. The cumulative trading volume of OKEX this week increased by 51.085 billion yuan compared with last week, an increase of 38.33%. The cumulative trading volume of BitMEX this week increased by 46.966 billion yuan compared with last week, an increase of 59.25%.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 31.40%.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 31.40%.This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 340.59%, an increase of 81.39% or 31.40% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 76.42%, the lowest was 34.77%, and the extreme value difference was 41.65 percentage points. Activity has risen sharply from previous lows. The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (792.69% this week, up 128.01% or 19.26% from last week), LTC (656.23% this week, up 134.31% or 25.73% from last week) , EOS (599.58% this week, up 225.23% from last week, or 60.17%).

Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 0.38%, USDT balance decreased by 22.34%.This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 593,151 BTC, an increase of 2,253 BTC or 0.38% from the same period last week; the exchange’s USDT wallet balance was 1.299 billion USDT, a decrease of 374 million USDT or 22.34% from the same period last week. Tether issued an additional 87.98 million USDT this week, an increase of 2.05%. The current total USDT circulation (including the ERC-20 version of USDT) is 4.37927 billion USD.

USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate rose slightly, while the OTC discount and premium index rose and fell.The USDT premium rate on the kraken exchange rose slightly this week, and maintained a positive premium at the end of the day. The usdt/usd trading pair on the kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.09% this week, with a maximum premium of 0.50% and a closing premium of 0.31%. It fluctuated in a wide range, and the overall trend was higher and lower. In late trading, it closed above 100 points. The opening value was 100.5534 points, the lowest value was 99.4390 points, and the highest value was 101.8055 points.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index is sharply higher, and market sentiment has turned neutral.This week, the bitcoin price volatility index rose sharply compared with last week, hitting a new high in the past three months. The opening value was 2.16, the highest value was 11.61, the lowest value was 1.36, and the closing value was 10.96. The closing value was 407.41% higher than the same period last week; The Fear & Greed Index was 37 points on the 7th, the highest this week was 53 points, the emotion is greed, the lowest is 20 points, the emotion is extreme fear. The latest point of the Fear & Greed Index is 50, an increase of 13 points from 37 points in the same period last week. As the positive news boosted the price of Bitcoin, investor sentiment turned from fear to neutral.

Futures contracts: Contract prices fluctuate in a wide range, and short-term market bullish expectations increase. This week’s futures and spot prices rose rapidly, and a large number of short funds once liquidated their positions; from the perspective of the term structure, the average discount of the weekly contract price of OKEX this week was 0.76%; the average discount of the next week’s contract price was 0.68%; The discount is 0.26%; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contract is 0.04%. From the perspective of long-short comparison of Bitcoin futures, as of the statistical time, the long-short ratio of BITMEX is 50.03%: 49.97%. ;As the price of Bitcoin increases, the market expects the market outlook to switch frequently, and the market is volatile. Investors are expected to pay attention to risks.

Macro perspective: All kinds of risk assets generally went up this week, the yield of Bitcoin rose sharply, and the blockchain sector of the stock market collectively rose.In terms of U.S. stocks, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher this week. The Nasdaq rose 1.90% to 8243.12 points; the Dow rose 0.70% to 26958.06 points; The stock blockchain sector collectively rose sharply, and Xunlei rose 107.76% in late trading; COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% weekly to $1,506.70 per ounce; in terms of domestic stock markets, the three major stock indexes collectively closed in red this week, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.57% weekly , reported 2954.93 points; Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.33% weekly to 9660.44 points; ChiNext Index rose 1.62% weekly to 1675.34 points; Hang Seng Index rose -0.20% weekly to 26667.39 points; the net inflow of northbound funds in the past week was 7.078 billion Yuan.

risk warning

risk warning

The copyright of this report is only owned by TAMC Research Institute. If you want to quote the content of this report, please indicate the source. Please let me know in advance if you need to quote a lot, and use it within the scope of permission. Under no circumstances shall any quotation, abridgement and modification contrary to the original intention be made to this report.

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

disclaimer

TAMC Research Institute does not have any relationship with digital assets or other third parties involved in this report that may affect the objectivity, independence, and impartiality of the report.

The materials and data cited in this report come from compliance channels. The sources of the materials and data are considered reliable by TAMC Research Institute, and necessary verifications have been carried out for their authenticity, accuracy and completeness. However, TAMC Research Institute is not responsible for makes no warranty as to its truth, accuracy or completeness.

The content of the report is for reference only, and the facts and opinions in the report do not constitute any investment advice on relevant digital assets. TAMC Research Institute shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of the contents of this report, unless expressly stipulated by laws and regulations. Readers should not make investment decisions solely based on this report, nor should they lose the ability to make independent judgments based on this report.

The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments.

期货合约

稳定币

交易所

钱包

Welcome to Join Odaily Official Community