U-shaped rebound with an upward trend

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2019-10-21 20:52 (UTC+8)

This article is about 7409 words, reading the full article takes about 11 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 42nd week of 2019.

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Blockchain secondary market report for the 42nd week of 2019.

Blockchain secondary market report for the 42nd week of 2019

Highlights of this report:

Market trend: U-shaped rebound, the trend is upward
Trading volume of the nine major exchanges: the cumulative trading volume of the exchanges dropped by 23.91%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 1.26%
Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 0.05%, USDT balance decreased by 3.91%
Over-the-counter premium rate: USDT maintains a positive premium, and the over-the-counter discount and premium index fluctuates widely
Bitcoin Volatility Index: VIX Up, Market Fear Eases
Futures contract: The game between long and short funds continues, and the market maintains bullish expectations
Macro perspective: risk asset yield diverges, gold price remains stable
Details of this report:

Details of this report:

1. The trend of the market: U-shaped rebound, the trend is upward

As of the statistical time of the report (October 21, 2019), the total market value of global blockchain assets this Saturday was US$223.22 billion, a decrease of US$7.01 billion or 3.01% from the US$230.23 billion in the same period last week; the 24-hour market trading volume 50.64 billion U.S. dollars, down 4.23 billion U.S. dollars, or 7.71%, from the 54.86 billion U.S. dollars in the same period last week.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is -1.23%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 0.46%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is -0.60%.

This week, the market bottomed out and rebounded, the market turnover can fall, and investors' panic has eased from a low level. At the beginning of the week, the broader market remained above $2,250 and fluctuated sideways, and then the market center gradually moved down and fell below the $220 billion mark, barely above $2,100. It stabilized and rebounded in late trading to close at $223.22 billion, down 3.01% from the same period last week. This week, Bitcoin fluctuated in a U-shape. At one point, it fell below $7,900 step by step. After finishing sideways at the bottom, it rebounded to above $8,200 in late trading. From the perspective of the market, the support below Bitcoin is currently valid. After the callback this week, the market has not gone bad. After the consolidation and change of hands, the market risk has been released to a certain extent. Gradually test the suppression of the upper track, but do not rule out the possibility of the next wave of market. This week, the futures market generally maintains bullish expectations, and the proportion of long funds has rebounded. The probability of reverse fluctuations is high under market volatility. It is hoped that futures investors can reasonably control leverage multiples to avoid risks.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 2 Bitcoin price changes this week

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Trading volume of the nine major exchanges: the cumulative trading volume of the exchanges decreased by 23.91%

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer-term perspective, the daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the first quarter of this year basically fluctuated around 40 billion yuan. In the second quarter, the trading volume exceeded 140 billion yuan in early April, and the market turnover in May-June hit consecutive records. New high, the daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges once exceeded the high point of 430 billion yuan; since July, the market volume has shown a continuous shock and shrinking trend, and the average daily trading volume has dropped below 100 billion yuan. The daily average trading volume exceeded 100 billion yuan for a short time, and the daily market trading volume continued to decline in the past three weeks. The daily average trading volume fell below 70 billion yuan this week. Considering the current trading volume behavior in major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets increased by 1.26%

This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 259.20%, an increase of 3.22% or 1.26% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 42.75%, the lowest was 32.29%, and the extreme value difference was 10.46 percentage points. In the past two weeks, the market Trading activity rose slightly from the previous low.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets this week

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 0.05%, USDT balance decreased by 3.91%

This week, the BTC wallet balance on the exchange was 590,900 BTC, an increase of 3,000 BTC or 0.05% from the same period last week; the USDT wallet balance on the exchange was 1.672 billion USDT, a decrease of 68 million USDT or 3.91% from the same period last week. Tether issued an additional 0.0536 billion USDT this week, an increase of 0.13%. The current total USDT circulation (including the ERC-20 version of USDT) is 4.29129 billion USD.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: CHAINEXT, TokenMania

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

Source: Tradingview (Kraken), TokenMania

Figure 13 USDT discount premium index

Source: CHAINEXT, TokenMania

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week's Bitcoin price volatility index has risen compared with last week, with an opening value of 1.36, a maximum value of 3.07, and a closing value of 2.16, a closing value of 58.82% higher than that of the same period last week; the fear & greed index was 38 points 7 days ago, the highest this week It is 41 points, and the mood is fear. The latest point is 41, which is an increase of 3 points from 38 points in the same period last week. The current market is still in a state of panic, and the low level of fear has eased.

7. Futures contracts: The game between long and short funds continues, and the market maintains bullish expectations

From the perspective of futures contracts, the basis difference of contracts with different durations expanded again this week, and the long-short funds continued to play games.. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.36%, and the premium is down by 0.12 percentage points; the average premium of the next week’s contracts is 0.33%, and the premium is down by 0.13 percentage points; the average premium of quarterly contracts is 1.02%, and the premium is down. 0.02 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.04%; from the perspective of the long-short comparison of Bitcoin futures, as of the statistical time, the long-short ratio of BITMEX is 55.83%: 44.17%, the long-short funds continue to game, and the bulls are relatively dominant; As the volatility of Bitcoin prices increases, the market's expectations for the market outlook switch frequently, and the market is volatile. Investors are expected to pay attention to risks.

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset.For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

This week, the yields of various risky assets around the world diverged, U.S. stocks rose slightly, the three major stock indexes of A shares all fell, and the price of gold remained stable.In terms of U.S. stocks, U.S. stocks rose slightly this week. The Nasdaq rose 0.40% to 8089.54 points; the Dow rose -0.17% to 26770.20; the S&P 500 rose 0.54% to 2986.20; Futures rose 0.36% weekly to US$1493.85 per ounce; in the domestic stock market, the three major stock indexes all fell this week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose -1.19% weekly to 2938.14 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose -1.38% weekly to 9533.50 points; The Growth Enterprise Market Index rose -1.09% weekly to 1648.63 points; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.56% to 26719.58 points and rose 1.56% to 26719.58 points; the net inflow of northbound funds in the past week was 13.586 billion yuan; affected by the poor performance of a number of economic data , The U.S. dollar index fell 1.14% this week, falling for the third consecutive week and hitting a new low in nearly three months.

Source: TokenMania

Comparing the dynamic rate of return of various assets in the past three years, the performance of Bitcoin is thriving. In the past three years, the dynamic rate of return of Bitcoin is 1199.02%, ranking first among all types of assets, and there is a large gap with the rate of return of other assets. Except for digital currencies, other asset yields were divided. U.S. stocks performed relatively well. The S&P 500 Index rose by 39.57%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 54.27%. In addition, the Hang Seng Index rose by 14.21%, and gold rose by 18.31%.

Source: TokenMania

9. Market Summary

9. Market Summary

Market trend: This week, the market bottomed out and rebounded, the market turnover can fall, and investors' panic has eased from a low level.At the beginning of the week, the broader market remained above $2,250 and fluctuated sideways, and then the market center gradually moved down and fell below the $220 billion mark, barely above $2,100. It stabilized and rebounded in late trading to close at $223.22 billion, down 3.01% from the same period last week. This week, Bitcoin fluctuated in a U-shape. At one point, it fell below $7,900 step by step. After finishing sideways at the bottom, it rebounded to above $8,200 in late trading. From the perspective of the market, the support below Bitcoin is currently valid. After the callback this week, the market has not gone bad. After the consolidation and change of hands, the market risk has been released to a certain extent. Gradually test the suppression of the upper track, but do not rule out the possibility of the next wave of market. This week, the futures market maintains bullish expectations, and the proportion of long funds has picked up. The probability of reverse fluctuations is high under market volatility. It is hoped that futures investors can reasonably control leverage multiples to avoid risks.

Trading volume of exchanges: The cumulative trading volume of exchanges decreased by 23.91%.The cumulative total turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 468.535 billion yuan, a decrease of 147.209 billion yuan or 23.91% from last week. The average daily turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 66.934 billion yuan. From the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges are Huobi (39.97%), OKEX (28.51%), and BitMEX (16.96%). The top three exchanges account for the total trading volume of the nine exchanges. 85.44% of the trading volume, the top three accounted for a decrease of 2.51% compared with last week.

From the global trading volume of LocalBitcoins, the global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 11.79% to 41.487 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 3.60% to 20.447 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 15.52% to 20.447 million US dollars. 86.08 billion bolivars, calculated based on the current exchange rate between Venezuelan bolivars and RMB (1 CNY = 2704.11VES), the off-market BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 31.83265 million yuan.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 1.26%.This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 259.20%, an increase of 3.22% or 1.26% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 42.75%, the lowest was 32.29%, and the extreme value difference was 10.46 percentage points. In the past two weeks, the market Trading activity rose slightly from the previous low. The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (664.68% this week, up 19.75% or 3.06% from last week), LTC (521.92% this week, up 40.84% or 8.49% from last week) , EOS (374.34% this week, up 14.77% from last week, or 4.11%).

Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 0.05%, USDT balance decreased by 3.91%.This week, the BTC wallet balance on the exchange was 590,900 BTC, an increase of 3,000 BTC or 0.05% from the same period last week; the USDT wallet balance on the exchange was 1.672 billion USDT, a decrease of 68 million USDT or 3.91% from the same period last week. Tether issued an additional 0.0536 billion USDT this week, an increase of 0.13%. The current total USDT circulation (including the ERC-20 version of USDT) is 4.29129 billion USD.

USDT premium rate: USDT maintains a positive premium, and the OTC discount and premium index fluctuates widely. This week, the USDT premium rate on the kraken exchange fluctuated within a narrow range, and the premium level was basically between 0-0.2%. The premium remained positive in late trading. The usdt/usd trading pair on the kraken exchange opened this week with a premium of 0.03%, and the highest premium was 0.20 %, with a closing premium of 0.07%; the USDT off-market discount and premium index fluctuated widely this week, showing a trend of bottoming out as a whole, closing above 100 points in late trading, with an opening value of 100.9566 points, a minimum value of 99.8737 points, a maximum value of 101.3913 points, and a closing price of 100.5027 points Points fell slightly from the opening.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index is up, and market fears have eased.This week's Bitcoin price volatility index has risen compared with last week, with an opening value of 1.36, a maximum value of 3.07, and a closing value of 2.16, a closing value of 58.82% higher than that of the same period last week; the fear & greed index was 38 points 7 days ago, the highest this week It is 41 points, and the mood is fear. The latest point is 41, which is an increase of 3 points from 38 points in the same period last week. The current market is still in a state of panic, and the low level of fear has eased.

Futures contracts: The game between long and short funds continues, and the market maintains bullish expectations.This week, the basis difference of contracts with different maturities expanded again, and the long-short funds continued to play games. The premium remained in late trading, and the market maintained bullish expectations. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.36%, and the premium is down by 0.12 percentage points; the average premium of the next week’s contracts is 0.33%, and the premium is down by 0.13 percentage points; the average premium of quarterly contracts is 1.02%, and the premium is down. 0.02 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.04%; from the perspective of the long-short comparison of Bitcoin futures, as of the statistical time, the long-short ratio of BITMEX is 55.83%: 44.17%, the long-short funds continue to game, and the bulls are relatively dominant.

Macro perspective: This week, the yields of various risk assets around the world diverged, U.S. stocks rose slightly, the three major stock indexes of A shares all fell, and gold prices remained stable.risk warning

risk warning

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Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

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TAMC Research Institute does not have any relationship with digital assets or other third parties involved in this report that may affect the objectivity, independence, and impartiality of the report.

The materials and data cited in this report come from compliance channels. The sources of the materials and data are considered reliable by TAMC Research Institute, and necessary verifications have been carried out for their authenticity, accuracy and completeness. However, TAMC Research Institute is not responsible for makes no warranty as to its truth, accuracy or completeness.

The content of the report is for reference only, and the facts and opinions in the report do not constitute any investment advice on relevant digital assets. TAMC Research Institute shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of the contents of this report, unless expressly stipulated by laws and regulations. Readers should not make investment decisions solely based on this report, nor should they lose the ability to make independent judgments based on this report.

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