Blockchain secondary market report: Weak and volatile, approaching short-term changes

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2019-09-23 22:03 (UTC+8)

This article is about 7163 words, reading the full article takes about 11 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 38th week of 2019.

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Blockchain secondary market report for the 38th week of 2019.

Blockchain secondary market report for the 38th week of 2019

Highlights of this report:

Market trend: Weak and volatile, approaching short-term change
Trading volume of the nine major exchanges: the cumulative trading volume of the exchanges fell by 9.77%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 11.35%
Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 0.67%, USDT balance increased by 2.67%
Over-the-counter premium rate: The USDT premium rate dropped, and the off-site discount premium index fluctuated at a low level
Futures contracts: Contract prices fluctuate in a wide range, and the market expects to switch frequently between long and short
Futures contracts: Contract prices fluctuate in a wide range, and the market expects to switch frequently between long and short
Macro perspective: The Fed cut interest rates as scheduled, and risk assets generally fell
Details of this report:

Details of this report:

1. The trend of the market: weak and volatile, approaching short-term changes

As of the statistical time of the report (September 21, 2019), the total market value of global blockchain assets this Saturday was 271.96 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.87 billion US dollars, or 0.69%, from the 270.08 billion US dollars in the same period last week; the market 24-hour trading volume 54.09 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 6.49 billion U.S. dollars from the 47.61 billion U.S. dollars in the same period last Saturday.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is -2.25%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 0.79%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 4.00%.

This week, the market remained weak and fluctuated, the market turnover fell slightly, and investors remained cautious. This week, the market remained within a narrow range between US$260 billion and US$270 billion. On Thursday, the market dived and fell, barely guarding the US$260 billion mark, and then bottomed out, closing at US$270.08 billion, up 0.69% from the same period last week; Weekly Bitcoin continued to maintain a weak sideways trend in the past three weeks, and the increase was weaker than that of mainstream currencies. Low, investor sentiment remains cautious; From the perspective of the disk, the current price of Bitcoin is under more obvious pressure, trading activity has dropped, market risk aversion has intensified, more funds are in a cautious wait-and-see situation, and short-term forces are accumulating. The risk of changing the market, it is recommended to operate with caution and wait and see the changes.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Trading volume of the nine major exchanges: the cumulative trading volume of the exchanges decreased by 9.77%

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer-term perspective, the daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the first quarter of this year basically fluctuated around 40 billion yuan. In the second quarter, the trading volume exceeded 140 billion yuan in early April, and the market turnover in May-June hit consecutive records. New high, the daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges once exceeded the high point of 430 billion yuan; since July, the market volume has shown a continuous shock and shrinking trend, and the average daily trading volume of the market in the past two weeks has dropped below 100 billion yuan. 84.162 billion yuan. Considering the current trading volume behavior in major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets increased by 11.35%

This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 232.26%, an increase of 23.67% or 11.35% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 42.35%, the lowest was 26.97%, and the extreme value difference was 15.38 percentage points. This week, the daily average turnover rate of the top ten digital assets surged and fell, reaching a high point on Thursday, and then returned to the mean.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets this week

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 0.67%, USDT balance increased by 2.67%

This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 587,705 BTC, an increase of 3,900 BTC or 0.67% from the same period last week; the exchange’s USDT wallet balance was 1.550 billion USDT, an increase of 40.3 million USDT or 2.67% from last week. Tether issued an additional 0.06347 billion USDT this week, an increase of 0.15%. The current total USDT circulation (including the ERC-20 version of USDT) is 4.142699 billion USD.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: CHAINEXT, TokenMania

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

Source: Tradingview (Kraken), TokenMania

Figure 13 USDT discount premium index

Source: CHAINEXT, TokenMania

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the bitcoin price volatility index fluctuated within a narrow range. The opening value was 1.50, the highest value was 3.48, the lowest value was 1.01, and the closing value was 1.78. The closing value was 18.67% higher than the same period last week. It is 41 points, and the sentiment is fear. The latest point is 37 points, which is 2 points lower than the 39 points in the same period last week, and the market fear has increased.

7. Futures contracts: Contract prices fluctuate in a wide range, and the market expects to switch frequently between long and short

From the perspective of futures contracts, the prices of contracts with different durations fluctuated and fell this week, and the long-short funds continued to play games. Short-term futures changed from premiums to discounts, and quarterly futures premiums rose. From the perspective of the term structure, the weekly contract price of OKEX this week changed from a premium to a discount, with an average discount of 0.12%; the next week’s contract price changed from a premium to a discount, with an average discount of 0.28%; the average quarterly contract premium was 2.18% , the premium increased by 1.49 percentage points; the average premium of the BitMEX perpetual contract was 0.03%; from the perspective of the long-short comparison of Bitcoin futures, as of the statistical time, the long-short ratio of BITMEX was 45.14%: 54.86%, and the short position was relatively dominant. On September 23, BAKKT launched physical delivery BTC contracts, and the trading volume on the first day was low.

As the price of Bitcoin increases, the market's expectations for the market outlook switch frequently, and the basis spread is generally in a state of spread. Under the market volatility, investors are expected to pay attention to risks.

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

Risk assets generally closed down this week. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut as scheduled, lowering the federal funds rate to 1.75%-2.00%, which was the second rate cut this year. Gold once dived and fell. In terms of U.S. stocks, the three major U.S. stock indexes ended their three-week winning streak this week. The Nasdaq fell 0.72% to 8117.67 points; the Dow fell 1.05% to 26935.07 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 2992.07 points; COMEX gold futures rose 1.92% on a weekly basis to US$1,524.41 per ounce. In terms of domestic stock markets, the three major stock indexes all fell this week, closing within 1%. -3.35%, at 26435.67 points, the net inflow of northbound funds in the past week was 21.87 billion yuan.

Source: TokenMania

Comparing the dynamic rate of return of various assets in the past three years, the performance of Bitcoin is thriving. In the past three years, the dynamic rate of return of Bitcoin has been 2400%, ranking first among all types of assets, and there is a large gap with the rate of return of other assets. Except for digital currency, the performance of other asset returns is divided, and the performance of US stocks is relatively good. The S&P 500 index rose by 39.83%, and the Nasdaq composite index rose by 54.88%. In addition, the Hang Seng Index rose by 12.34%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by -0.55%. .

Source: TokenMania

Among all kinds of assets, the market value of digital currency fluctuates the most. During the process of bubble expansion and bubble burst, the price of digital currency shows a trend of skyrocketing and plummeting. The bear market actually helps to eliminate inferior projects in the market and short-term The exit of speculators.9. Market Summary

9. Market Summary

Market trend: The market remained weak and volatile this week, the market turnover fell slightly, and investors remained cautious.This week, the market remained within a narrow range between US$260 billion and US$270 billion. On Thursday, the market dived and fell, barely guarding the US$260 billion mark, and then bottomed out, closing at US$270.08 billion, up 0.69% from the same period last week; Weekly Bitcoin continued to maintain a weak sideways trend in the past three weeks, and the increase was weaker than that of mainstream currencies. Low, investor sentiment remains cautious; From the perspective of the disk, the current price of Bitcoin is under more obvious pressure, trading activity has dropped, market risk aversion has intensified, more funds are in a cautious wait-and-see situation, and short-term forces are accumulating. The risk of changing the market, it is recommended to operate with caution and wait and see the changes.

Trading volume on exchanges: The cumulative trading volume on exchanges decreased by 9.77%.The cumulative total turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 589.136 billion yuan, a decrease of 63.810 billion yuan or 9.77% from last week. The average daily turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 84.162 billion yuan. From the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges are Huobi (39.30%), OKEX (29.01%), BitMEX (16.23%). The trading volume of the top three exchanges accounts for the total volume of the nine exchanges. 84.53% of the trading volume, the top three accounted for a decrease of 1.65% compared with last week.

Judging from the global trading volume of LocalBitcoins, the global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 1.42% to 53.252 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 7.80% to 28.509 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 13.93% to $53.252 million. 104.01 billion bolivars, calculated based on the current exchange rate between Venezuelan bolivars and RMB (1 CNY = 2776.62VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 37.458 million yuan.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 11.35%. This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 232.26%, an increase of 23.67% or 11.35% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 42.35%, the lowest was 26.97%, and the extreme value difference was 15.38 percentage points. This week, the top ten digital assets changed hands first and then went lower. The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (500.33% this week, up 20.14% or 4.19% from last week), LTC (449.49% this week, up 42.82% from last week, or 10.53%) , EOS (368.11% this week, down 15.25% from last week, down 3.98%).

Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 0.67%, USDT balance increased by 2.67%.This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 587,700 BTC, an increase of 3,900 BTC or 0.67% from the same period last week; the exchange’s USDT wallet balance was 1.550 billion USDT, an increase of 40.3 million USDT or 2.67% from last week. Tether issued an additional 0.06347 billion USDT this week, an increase of 0.15%. The current total USDT circulation (including the ERC-20 version of USDT) is 4.142699 billion USD.

USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate dropped, and the OTC discount and premium index fluctuated at a low level.The USDT premium rate on the kraken exchange dropped this week and turned into a negative premium at the close. The usdt/usd trading pair opened at a premium of 0.24%, the highest premium was 0.45%, and the closing premium was -0.02%. Oscillating, the opening value was 99.7678 points, the lowest value was 98.9636 points, the highest intraday rose to 100.0479 points on Thursday, and then pulled back to lower, the amplitude narrowed in late trading, and closed at 99.2753 points.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuated in a wide range, and the market sentiment remained fearful.Futures contracts: Contract prices fluctuate in a wide range, and the market expects to switch frequently between long and short

Futures contracts: Contract prices fluctuate in a wide range, and the market expects to switch frequently between long and short. This week, the prices of contracts with different maturities fluctuated and fell, and long-short funds continued to play games. Short-term futures changed from premiums to discounts, and quarterly futures premiums rose. From the perspective of the term structure, the weekly contract price of OKEX this week changed from a premium to a discount, with an average discount of 0.12%; the next week’s contract price changed from a premium to a discount, with an average discount of 0.28%; the average quarterly contract premium was 2.18% , the premium increased by 1.49 percentage points; the average premium of BitMEX perpetual contracts was 0.03%; on September 23, BAKKT launched physical delivery BTC contracts, and the trading volume on the first day was low. As the price of Bitcoin increases, the market's expectations for the market outlook switch frequently, and the basis spread is generally in a state of spread. Under the market volatility, investors are expected to pay attention to risks.

Macro perspective: The Fed cut interest rates as scheduled, and risk assets generally closed down.risk warning

risk warning

The copyright of this report is only owned by TAMC Research Institute. If you want to quote the content of this report, please indicate the source. Please let me know in advance if you need to quote a lot, and use it within the scope of permission. Under no circumstances shall any quotation, abridgement and modification contrary to the original intention be made to this report.

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

disclaimer

TAMC Research Institute does not have any relationship with digital assets or other third parties involved in this report that may affect the objectivity, independence, and impartiality of the report.

The materials and data cited in this report come from compliance channels. The sources of the materials and data are considered reliable by TAMC Research Institute, and necessary verifications have been carried out for their authenticity, accuracy and completeness. However, TAMC Research Institute is not responsible for makes no warranty as to its truth, accuracy or completeness.

The content of the report is for reference only, and the facts and opinions in the report do not constitute any investment advice on relevant digital assets. TAMC Research Institute shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of the contents of this report, unless expressly stipulated by laws and regulations. Readers should not make investment decisions solely based on this report, nor should they lose the ability to make independent judgments based on this report.

The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments.

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