Blockchain Secondary Market Report: Funds continue to play games, high pressure and callback

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2019-09-09 19:19 (UTC+8)

This article is about 7829 words, reading the full article takes about 12 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 36th week of 2019.

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Blockchain secondary market report for the 36th week of 2019.

Blockchain secondary market report for the 36th week of 2019

Highlights of this report:

Highlights of this report:

The trend of the broader market: funds continue to play games, soaring high and under pressure to pull back
Trading volume of the nine major exchanges: the cumulative trading volume of the exchanges rose by 2.72%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 5.18%
Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 0.26%, USDT balance decreased by 3.18%
OTC premium rate: within a narrow range, USDT maintains a positive premium
Bitcoin Volatility Index: Volatility Index fluctuates at a low level, market sentiment remains fearful
Futures contracts: short-term futures premiums have declined, and long positions are relatively dominant
Macro perspective: the "boots" of RRR cuts have landed, and the yield of A-share market leads
Details of this report:

Details of this report:

1. The trend of the broader market: the continuous game of funds, high pressure and callback

As of the statistical time of the report (September 7, 2019), the total market value of global blockchain assets this Saturday was US$269.76 billion, an increase of US$17.29 billion or 6.85% from the US$252.47 billion in the same period last week; the 24-hour market on Saturday The trading volume was 56.98 billion US dollars, and the average daily trading volume of the market this week increased by 1.33% from the previous month.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is 8.29%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 4.90%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 5.35%.

This week, the market fluctuated higher, and the currencies with large, medium and small market capitalizations rose across the board. During the same period, the market trading volume did not appear to be effectively enlarged, and investor sentiment remained fearful. At the beginning of the week, the market started to fluctuate upwards from 250 billion US dollars, broke through 270 billion US dollars on Wednesday, and then maintained a high level and narrow range. On Saturday, with the correction of Bitcoin, the market once fell rapidly, barely guarding the integer mark of 260 billion US dollars, and then stopped falling and went up , closed at US$269.76 billion, up 6.85% from the same period last week; Bitcoin once broke through US$10,800 this week, setting a new high in its share of the broader market, but then pulled back again to around US$10,100. From the perspective of the market, after the price adjustment of Bitcoin, the short-term risk has been released to a certain extent, but the current investor sentiment remains cautious, the return of off-market funds is insufficient, and the pressure on the upper bargaining chip is under pressure. Before the volume can cooperate to determine the market direction, it needs to be gradually In the short term, the probability of a unilateral market is low; in the long run, mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin are still at low valuations. Bakkt is expected to attract more institutional investors after the launch of the BTC contract. The currency may maintain a volatile upward trend.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Trading volume of the nine major exchanges: the cumulative trading volume of the exchanges rose by 2.72%

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer-term perspective, the daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the first quarter of this year basically fluctuated around 40 billion yuan. In the second quarter, the trading volume exceeded 140 billion yuan in early April, and the market turnover in May-June hit consecutive records. New high, the daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges once exceeded the high point of 430 billion yuan; since July, the market trading volume has shown a trend of continuous shock and shrinkage, but the average daily trading volume of the market is basically above 100 billion yuan. week rose slightly. Considering the current trading volume behavior in major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 5.18%

This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 211.48%, down 11.56% or 5.18% from last week; the highest daily average turnover rate was 33.97%, the lowest was 26.10%, and the extreme value difference was 7.88 percentage points. This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets generally showed a low and volatile upward trend.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets this week

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 0.26%, USDT balance decreased by 3.18%

This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 588,750 BTC, a decrease of 1,500 BTC or 0.26% from the same period last week; the exchange’s USDT wallet balance was 1,662.77 million USDT, a decrease of 54.67 million USDT or 3.18% from last week. This week Tether issued an additional 44.956 million USDT, an increase of 1.11%. The current total USDT circulation (including the ERC-20 version of USDT) is 4.084 billion USD.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: CHAINEXT, TokenMania

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

Source: Tradingview (Kraken), TokenMania

Figure 13 USDT discount premium index

Source: CHAINEXT, TokenMania

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the Bitcoin price volatility index fluctuated at a low level, with an opening value of 1.77, a minimum value of 1.44, and a closing value of 1.88. The closing value was 6.21% higher than the same period last week; the fear & greed index was 20 points on the 7th, and the highest this week was 43 points. The lowest point is 24 points, and the latest point of the fear & greed index is 39 points, an increase of 19 points from 20 points in the same period last week. This week, Bitcoin regained the $10,000 mark, and the volume performance did not show an effective increase in the same period. The market sentiment remained fearful, but investor panic has subsided compared to the previous period.

7. Futures contracts: short-term futures premiums have declined, and long positions are relatively dominant

From the perspective of futures contracts, the prices of contracts with different durations fluctuated and rose this week. Long and short funds continued to play games. Short-term futures premiums fell, and the market's bullish expectations weakened.From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.06%, and the premium has decreased by 0.72 percentage points; the average premium of the next week’s contracts has been 0.02%, and the premium has decreased by 0.71 percentage points; the average premium of quarterly contracts has decreased by 0.58%, and the premium has decreased 0.76 percentage points; the average premium of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.05%; from the perspective of the long-short comparison of Bitcoin futures, as of the statistical time, the long-short ratio of BITMEX is 51.37%: 48.63%, and the long position is relatively dominant. As the volatility of Bitcoin prices increases, the market's expectations for the market outlook switch frequently, and the market is volatile. Investors are expected to pay attention to risks.

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

8. Macro perspective: The "boots" of RRR cuts have landed, and the yield of the A-share market leads

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the return on assets differentiated by various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

This week, various risk assets around the world generally rose, short-term market risk aversion improved, and gold continued to pull back; the domestic RRR cut "boots" released liquidity, and the U.S. non-agricultural employment data fell short of expectations, deepening market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in September. In terms of U.S. stocks, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up this week. The Nasdaq rose 1.63% to 8103.07 points; the Dow rose 1.65% to 26797.46 points; the S&P 500 rose 1.79% to 2978.71 points for two consecutive weeks Rising; COMEX gold futures fell 0.91% on the week to US$1,514.57 per ounce, falling for two consecutive weeks; in terms of domestic stock markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 113.36 points to close at 2,999.60 points, an increase of 3.93%, the largest weekly increase in more than two months; The Zhengcheng Index closed at 9823.42 points, a weekly increase of nearly 5%, the ChiNext Index closed at 1692.24 points, a weekly increase of more than 5%; the Hang Seng Index rose 3.76% weekly to close at 26690.76 points, and the net inflow of capital from the north this week was 30.836 billion yuan. On the domestic front, this week's National Standing Meeting called for timely and comprehensive RRR cuts and structural RRR cuts, took effective measures to reduce real interest rates, and determined measures to speed up the issuance and use of local special bonds, sending a signal of further easing; on September 6, the central bank released News, decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on September 16, releasing long-term funds of about 900 billion yuan.

Source: TokenMania

Comparing the dynamic rate of return of various assets in the past three years, the performance of Bitcoin is thriving. In the past three years, the dynamic rate of return of Bitcoin has been 2500%, ranking first among all types of assets, and there is a large gap with the rate of return of other assets. Except for digital currency, the performance of other asset returns is divided. The performance of US stocks is relatively good. The S&P 500 index rose by 36.23%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 53.59%. In addition, the Hang Seng Index rose by 12.20%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by -2.95%. .

Source: TokenMania

big

9. Market Summary

bigMarket trend: This week, the market fluctuated and rose, and the currencies with large, medium and small market capitalizations rose across the board. During the same period, the market trading volume did not appear to be effectively enlarged, and investor sentiment remained fearful. At the beginning of the week, the market started to fluctuate upwards from 250 billion US dollars, broke through 270 billion US dollars on Wednesday, and then maintained a high level and narrow range. On Saturday, with the correction of Bitcoin, the market once fell rapidly, barely guarding the integer mark of 260 billion US dollars, and then stopped falling and went up , closed at US$269.76 billion, up 6.85% from the same period last week; Bitcoin once broke through US$10,800 this week, setting a new high in its share of the broader market, but then pulled back again to around US$10,100. From the perspective of the market, after the price adjustment of Bitcoin, the short-term risk has been released to a certain extent, but the current investor sentiment remains cautious, the return of off-market funds is insufficient, and the pressure on the upper bargaining chip is under pressure. Before the volume can cooperate to determine the market direction, it needs to be gradually In the short term, the probability of a unilateral market is low; in the long run, mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin are still at low valuations. After Bakkt launches the BTC contract, it will attract more institutional investors to enter the market. Will maintain a shock upward trend.

Exchange trading volume: the cumulative trading volume this week rose by 2.72%. The cumulative total turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 791.157 billion yuan, an increase of 20.915 billion yuan or 2.72% from last week. The average daily turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 113.022 billion yuan. From the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges are Huobi (40.34%), OKEX (22.99%), BitMEX (18.06%), and the top three exchanges account for the total trading volume of the nine exchanges. 81.39% of the trading volume, the top three accounted for a decrease of 4.32% compared with last week.

Judging from the global trading volume of LocalBitcoins, the global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 5.93% to 55.124 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 14.72% to 34.192 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 50.87% to $55.124 million. 116.87 billion bolivars, calculated based on the current exchange rate between Venezuelan bolivars and RMB (1 CNY = 2941.91VES), the off-site BTC trading volume in the last week was about 39.72606 million yuan.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 5.18%.This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 211.48%, down 11.56% or 5.18% from last week; the highest daily average turnover rate was 33.97%, the lowest was 26.10%, and the extreme value difference was 7.88 percentage points. This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets generally showed a low and volatile upward trend. The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (568.13% this week, down 152.07% from last week, down 21.11%), LTC (421.87% this week, down 5.07% from last week, down 1.19%) , EOS (324.22% this week, up 17.07% from last week, or 5.56%).

Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 0.26%, USDT balance decreased by 3.18%. This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 588,750 BTC, a decrease of 1,524 BTC or 0.26% from the same period last week; the exchange’s USDT wallet balance was 1,662.77 million USDT, a decrease of 54.67 million USDT or 3.18% from last week. This week Tether issued an additional 44.956 million USDT, an increase of 1.11%. The current total USDT circulation (including the ERC-20 version of USDT) is 4.084 billion USD.

USDT premium rate: within a narrow range, USDT maintains a positive premium. This week, the USDT premium rate on the kraken exchange fluctuated within a narrow range, basically maintaining a positive premium state. The usdt/usdkraken exchange usdt/usd trading pair this week opened at a premium of 0.03%, with a maximum premium of 0.38%, a minimum premium of -0.05%, and a closing premium of 0.18% ;The USDT off-site discount and premium index fluctuated at a high level and then rebounded. The trend was stable at the end of the session. The opening value was 100.35 points, the highest value was 101.23 points, and the lowest value was 99.4765 points. The rise of the market at the beginning of the year was accompanied by a slight decline in the USDT premium rate. It can be seen that the upward resistance of the market is still there, and there are signs of capital profit fleeing.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuates at a low level, and market sentiment remains fearful.This week, the Bitcoin price volatility index fluctuated at a low level, with an opening value of 1.77, a minimum value of 1.44, and a closing value of 1.88. The closing value was 6.21% higher than the same period last week; the fear & greed index was 20 points on the 7th, and the highest this week was 43 points. The lowest point is 24 points, and the latest point of the fear & greed index is 39 points, an increase of 19 points from 20 points in the same period last week. This week, Bitcoin regained the $10,000 mark, and the volume performance did not show an effective increase in the same period. The market sentiment remained fearful, but investor panic has subsided compared to the previous period.

Futures contracts: The prices of contracts with different durations fluctuated and rose this week. Long and short funds continued to play games. Short-term futures premiums fell, and the market's bullish expectations weakened.From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.06%, and the premium has decreased by 0.72 percentage points; the average premium of the next week’s contracts has been 0.02%, and the premium has decreased by 0.71 percentage points; the average premium of quarterly contracts has decreased by 0.58%, and the premium has decreased 0.76 percentage points; the average premium of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.05%; from the perspective of the long-short comparison of Bitcoin futures, as of the statistical time, the long-short ratio of BITMEX is 51.37%: 48.63%, and the long position is relatively dominant. As the volatility of Bitcoin prices increases, the market's expectations for the market outlook switch frequently, and the market is volatile. Investors are expected to pay attention to risks.

Macro perspective: All kinds of risky assets in the world generally rose this week, short-term market risk aversion improved, and gold continued to pull back; the domestic RRR cut "boots" released liquidity, and the U.S. non-agricultural employment data fell short of expectations, deepening market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in September .risk warning

risk warning

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Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

disclaimer

TAMC Research Institute does not have any relationship with digital assets or other third parties involved in this report that may affect the objectivity, independence, and impartiality of the report.

The materials and data cited in this report come from compliance channels. The sources of the materials and data are considered reliable by TAMC Research Institute, and necessary verifications have been carried out for their authenticity, accuracy and completeness. However, TAMC Research Institute is not responsible for makes no warranty as to its truth, accuracy or completeness.

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