BTC fell below $10,000 again, can the bull market survive?
Produced | Odaily
Editor | Lu Xiaoming
Produced | Odaily
According to the HOLD market, at 8 o'clock this morning, the BTC price on the three major exchanges all fell below the $10,000 mark. Currently, Huobi temporarily reports 10142 USDT, OKEx temporarily reports 10147 USDT, and Binance temporarily reports 10139 USDT.
Over the past 24 hours, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has shrunk by more than $20 billion, and it is currently only $273 billion. In the past week, BTC continued to fall after briefly breaking through $13,000, with a cumulative drop of 12%.
This decline can be traced back to July 9, when a large sale order of Bitcoin appeared on Binance that night, and nearly 7,000 BTCs were sold off intensively, which directly led to a drop of around $400 in BTC prices.
In the view of Yu Bolun, a big V of TradingView, a professional investment community, as the benefits are cashed out and profits increase, the main force is not in the mood to stand guard at a high position and choose to ship, so the market has plummeted.
CoindeskThe analysis also pointed out that the decline in the market this time was mainly due to the fact that the previous profit-makers cashed out and the market stock funds were insufficient; in addition, there were only cases of "increasing volume" (that is, the rising trading volume exceeded the previous falling trading volume) , the market can pick up.
Binance Research believes that Bitcoin’s pullback thus far can be considered “healthy.” The reason is that in the past bull market phase, it was not uncommon for Bitcoin to pull back 20-40% within a month (currently the callback is less than 30% from the high point), which is determined by the natural characteristics of Bitcoin (supply is inelastic , Intrinsic value valuation is difficult), but statistics prove that, no matter in the long-term (the past 10 years) or in the short-term (the past 3 years), the advantage of Bitcoin is that the risk-adjusted return ratio is the highest among all major asset classes. It means that a certain degree of decline often corresponds to a greater rise later.
Secondly, from the perspective of the macro environment, the accelerated decline of Bitcoin began after the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting (July 10) last week. Statistics show that Bitcoin’s short-term performance is not consistent with most economic data/policy changes. Sensitive, but relatively speaking, where Bitcoin reacts relatively strongly to inflation/interest rate data or policy events.
image description
secondary title
Shocking market, long and short stalemate
Gold diggers in the currency circle
Gold diggers in the currency circleAnalysis, on the one hand, after the early rise and then the sharp fall, the strength of the long and short sides has completed several rounds of battles. After the battle, it is necessary to rest and reorganize, and then choose the direction again after accumulating strength; on the other hand, the confidence of market participants also needs time and news. to recover.
Molecule Future said that once BTC stands at the $10,000 mark, it may go up; once it falls below, it will go down. "Judging from today's daily chart, BTC has the risk of continuing to fall."
In the past week, Bitcoin fell by only 10%, but altcoins fell by more than 20% or even cut in half. Mainstream currencies including ETH, LTC, XRP, and EOS have shrunk by nearly 20% in the past 24 hours. Why is it that Bitcoin is thriving, and the situation of "one super and many weak" is formed?
Li Zhe, managing director of Clipper Coin Capital and partner of Future Money, said that the reason why other coins have fallen more and rebounded less is that the main good news of the previous round of rise is that the funds for institutional admissions are mainly BTC.
Molecular Future believes that it is mainly due to the blood-sucking market of Bitcoin. Bitcoin and altcoins are currently caught in a "circle". Bitcoin has a larger increase, while altcoins have a smaller increase, and funds are slowly transferred to Bitcoin; due to lack of financial support, when the market falls, altcoins fall even more , more funds tend to Bitcoin, forming a cycle. Unless one day, most people think that the price of Bitcoin has peaked, funds will slowly flow to mainstream currencies and altcoins.
secondary title
bad news
From the news point of view, the decline of BTC has the following major disadvantages.
One is the frequent theft of exchanges. On July 12, Bitpoint Japan confirmed the theft of encrypted assets. The stolen currency can currently be determined to include XRP, and the initial loss estimate is around 3.5 billion yen. In addition, South Africa's largest payment gateway closed bitcoin transactions. Due to high transaction fees and network congestion, South Africa's largest payment gateway will no longer support bitcoin transactions after July 20. The company also claims that bitcoin has many limitations and design flaws and cannot become a better cash substitute.
Secondly, the Facebook stablecoin project Libra, which was once regarded as the biggest benefit in the currency circle, has also encountered many setbacks in the near future. Including the upcoming hearings of the U.S. Congress, as well as the Japanese Ministry of Finance and Financial Services Agency, and the Bank of Japan's liaison meeting on libra.
This month, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and U.S. President Trump both raised doubts about Libra in public. In a speech to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, Powell expressed doubts about the feasibility of Facebook launching Libra on its timetable. He said Libra raised many serious concerns, including privacy, money laundering, consumer protection and financial stability. Trump even criticized Facebook's cryptocurrency Libra on Twitter as having no status or reliability; at the same time, European Central Bank Governing Council Villeroy, Bank of England Deputy Governor Cunliffe, French Economy Minister Le Maire Both made negative remarks on Libra.
secondary title
Outlook
Regarding market outlook, analysts are still optimistic.
Binance Research believes that it is understandable that assets with ambiguous intrinsic value, such as cryptocurrencies, have experienced a short-term decline after the Fed’s interest rate meeting, because the attention of funds has temporarily shifted to traditional core assets, but this may not be the case. It lasts too long, because the investment world is inseparable from "reversion to the mean". When the valuation of traditional core assets is too high and the price/performance ratio gradually decreases, the attention of funds will naturally come back, especially in the long run. It will further enhance people's belief in encrypted digital currency.
Bao Daren, a special analyst at Huobi.com, believes that "the next round of support is still at the 9832 and 8843 lines mentioned earlier. In view of the current shock pattern in the middle line, after the low-level support is verified, there is still an opportunity for the price to rebound in the upward band. The market before last Wednesday was mediocre. But at the same time, it is necessary to make preparations for breaking the support, oscillating at a high level, and changing to the main bearish pattern."
Molecular Future believes that the future trend of BTC lies in whether it can hold the mark of 9800, 9000 and 7600 US dollars. "I personally think that there will be a wave of accelerated decline before the end of the decline, so let's see if the $9,800 can (form) a double bottom (support). The long-term is bullish, and the short-term and medium-term are currently weak."
Xiaojingku said that BTC is still relatively strong at present and can be purchased at an opportunity. "We tend to think that it is normal for the big pie (BTC) to pull back to 30-40% every time it is high. Relatively speaking, at this position, we think it is OK to enter."
image description
(BTC daily chart: the green line is the 30-day moving average, and the yellow line is the 60-day moving average)
image description
The screenshot is from the K-line chart of the OKEx Bitcoin quarterly contract
"As shown in the figure, the low point near the last round of adjustment is 10032.92 USDT, which is very close to the support price of 9832.8 USDT estimated by our data. Therefore, there will probably be a stop support here, and the second technical support is around 9200 USDT." K Grandpa said.
Li Lianxuan, a senior researcher at OK Research, said: "According to our team's research in June, the current bitcoin market has entered a comprehensive recovery period, but it has not yet entered the bull market of the 'excited' period in 2017. Before the real bull market comes, the market is still It will show a state of increasing volatility, and there will be multiple rounds of tentative rises and corrections. The market has been volatile in the past half a month, which is the external manifestation of the fierce game between the long and short sides in the market during the period of increasing volatility.”
Li Zhe concluded that 2019 itself is a year of layout, and the big market will be in the second half of 2020. I hope everyone will invest regularly + don’t increase leverage + don’t get out of the car.
