Where is the bottom for Bitcoin? From $59,000 to $40,000, institutions are divided over predictions

Original Author: Wu Blockchain

TL;DR

Bitcoin entered a downward cycle after hitting an all-time high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025. On July 1, 2026, BTC briefly dropped to around $57,800, a maximum drawdown of about 54% from its peak; as of July 14, the price had recovered to near $62,000.

As the market enters a phase of searching for the bottom, institutions such as Standard Chartered, Galaxy Research, CryptoQuant, NYDIG, and 10x Research have successively released their assessments. However, the nature of these predictions varies: some institutions provide a baseline bottom, others only key support levels or bearish scenarios, and some present technical targets after breaking specific price levels.

Combining currently available opinions, institutional predictions are mainly concentrated in the ranges of $50,000 – $60,000 and $40,000 – $46,000. Judgments from Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) are more diversified, with the lowest extending below $30,000.

Standard Chartered: $59,000 Could Be the Cycle Bottom

On June 12, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, stated that Bitcoin may have formed a cycle bottom around $59,000 and believed that the current "crypto winter" had ended.

Kendrick attributed the previous market decline to outflows from spot ETFs, a decreased purchasing capacity of digital asset treasury companies like Strategy, and the shift of investor funds towards AI-related assets. Standard Chartered maintained its target for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026.

However, Bitcoin subsequently fell to about $57,800 on July 1, briefly breaking below Standard Chartered's $59,000 bottom. Its prediction was quite close to the actual low, but this alone cannot confirm that the market has completed its final bottoming process.

10x Research: Further Revised Down from $55,000 to Around $50,000

On June 24, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, indicated that Bitcoin might form a low after dropping to around $55,000. He suggested that a strong US dollar, tightening liquidity, and seasonal market factors could continue to pressure BTC.

On July 1, 10x Research further updated its Elliott Wave model. Earlier, the firm predicted Bitcoin would complete its A-wave decline around $63,000, then rebound to the $80,000 – $90,000 area, before moving towards approximately $50,000 in a C-wave decline. The latest model gives a potential price range of roughly $46,628 – $50,732.

Consequently, 10x Research's assessment has gradually been revised downwards from an initial $55,000 to around $50,000. However, the firm also believes that long-term allocation value will begin to emerge once Bitcoin falls below $55,000.

CryptoQuant: $53,600 Could Constitute a Valuation Bottom

In a report published in June, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, pointed out that Bitcoin had entered the on-chain valuation range at the time, but demand remained weak, and the market had not shown complete capitulation signals.

The report indicated that Bitcoin's realized price was approximately $53,600. The realized price reflects the average cost of all BTC at their last on-chain transfer and is historically often viewed as a crucial valuation floor during bear markets.

CryptoQuant, combined with indicators like the MVRV Z-Score, identified the $55,000 – $60,000 zone as a potential bottoming area requiring close observation. However, the firm emphasized that further confirmation of the cycle bottom would only come with simultaneous improvements in spot demand, ETF fund flows, and stablecoin liquidity.

Citi: $53,000 in a Bearish Scenario

On July 1, Citi lowered its 12-month target for Bitcoin from $112,000 to $82,000, primarily due to continued outflows from spot ETFs, stalled progress in US crypto legislation, and weakening investor demand.

In a bearish scenario involving an economic recession and continued ETF outflows, Citi's valuation for Bitcoin was around $53,000.

It's important to note that $53,000 is not Citi's explicitly predicted cycle bottom, but rather a 12-month bearish scenario valuation based on the assumptions of an economic recession and persistent capital outflows.

NYDIG: $53,700 as Cost Basis, Extreme Drawdown Scenario at $37,900

In a report released on June 5, NYDIG stated that Bitcoin was not far from historical bear market bottom zones, but market evidence remained complex and insufficient to confirm the final bottom.

The report viewed the 1x MVRV level of around $53,700 as an important cost basis. This level indicates that Bitcoin's market price is close to the average on-chain cost of all holders across the network.

NYDIG also calculated that if Bitcoin experienced a drawdown of approximately 70% from its high of $126,000, the price would fall to around $37,900. However, this figure is a stress scenario based on historical bear market drawdowns and is not NYDIG's base-case prediction.

Galaxy Research: Baseline Bottom at $40,000 – $46,000

Galaxy Research currently offers one of the more definitive and lower-end base-case predictions among institutions. Its June report suggested that Bitcoin could form a cycle bottom in the $40,000 – $46,000 range between now and the fourth quarter of 2026.

Galaxy established a Bitcoin bottom monitoring framework comprising 13 indicators, covering price drawdowns, holder losses, realized price, miner stress, long-term holder behavior, and market time cycles. As of the report's release, only 4 indicators had fully triggered, suggesting that while Bitcoin has entered the second half of the bear market, the market may not have fully undergone sufficient price decline and duration to complete the cleansing process.

Therefore, Galaxy lists $40,000 – $46,000 as the baseline bottom range, but also cautions that if the macroeconomic environment or digital asset treasury companies deteriorate further, the market could experience deeper tail risks.

Bitfinex: $53,400 is Structural Support, Weak Demand Could Lead to Dip to $40,000

In its June 29 report, Bitfinex Alpha identified the realized price of around $53,400 as a crucial structural support level for Bitcoin.

The report suggested that if ETF outflows slow and spot buying resumes, Bitcoin could complete its bottoming process in this area. However, if demand remains persistently weak, the market might further decline to around $40,000 in the fourth quarter.

On July 1, Bitcoin quickly rebounded after falling to around $57,800. In a subsequent report, Bitfinex noted that this move might represent a 'false breakdown', but it was still insufficient to confirm that the final bottom had been formed.

22V Research: After Breaking $60,000, Technical Target Could Point to $40,000

John Roque, Technical Strategist at 22V Research, stated that Bitcoin was testing $60,000 as its first downside target. If the price effectively breaks below this level, it could potentially decline further to $40,000.

Thus, $40,000 represents a conditional target following the breakdown of a key technical level, not an unconditional prediction for this cycle's bottom by 22V Research.

Other Institutions: $31,000 – $40,000 Primarily in Deep Bear Market Scenarios

John Blank, Chief Equity Strategist at Zacks Investment Research, stated in February that if the current crypto winter lasts 12-18 months, Bitcoin could fall to around $40,000 over the next 6-8 months. His judgment is primarily based on technical patterns, declining liquidity, and historical bear market cycles.

Stifel previously set a potential target of around $38,000. Ned Davis Research suggested that if the market enters a full 'crypto winter', Bitcoin could fall to approximately $31,000. These figures belong more to long-term bear market or deep stress scenarios and are not the current unified base-case judgments of these institutions.

Strategy and Metaplanet: No Clear Bottom Prediction, but Long-Term Treasury Strategy Continues

Strategy and Metaplanet have not given clear Bitcoin bottom price predictions, but their treasury activities serve as important variables for institutions assessing market demand.

Michael Saylor stated that the recent outflow of approximately $4 billion from Bitcoin ETFs reflects a rotation of capital towards the AI sector, not damage to Bitcoin itself. In his view, volatility still creates opportunities.

However, Strategy has begun managing its balance sheet more flexibly. The company sold 3,588 BTC between June 29 and July 5, cashing out about $216 million, primarily to pay preferred stock dividends. In the most recent week, the company did not buy or sell BTC but instead raised approximately $467 million by selling common stock, boosting its USD reserves to around $3 billion. As of the disclosure, Strategy holds 843,775 BTC.

Metaplanet continues its long-term strategy of expanding BTC reserves, aiming to hold 100,000 BTC by the end of 2026 and 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027. The stance of these two companies is better classified as long-term treasury allocation rather than short-term bottom prediction.

KOL Predictions: From $57,000 to Below $30,000

Beyond institutions, on-chain analysts, traders, and industry figures have also offered varied judgments on this cycle's bottom.

Michael Terpin stated in April that Bitcoin had not yet hit its final bottom, predicting the price could fall to around $57,000 around October. The low of $57,800 seen on July 1 is close to his prediction, but whether it is the final bottom remains to be confirmed.

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen said in June that $59,000 is the first support level to watch; if broken, the next important zone lies between $48,000 and $52,000. Biteye summarized her bottom judgment as approximately $50,000.

On-chain analyst Willy Woo, using traditional on-chain models like CVDD in March, placed the potential bottom range between $46,000 and $54,000. At the time, the CVDD floor was around $45,500 and would gradually rise over time. He also cautioned that these models have only experienced four complete bear markets, and if the macro environment deteriorates significantly, the actual price could fall even further.

Jiang Zhuocr, founder of the LakeBTC mining pool, predicts Bitcoin could fall to $42,000 – $44,000 in the fourth quarter of 2026. He based his assessment on the ratio of Strategy's market cap to its Bitcoin net asset value, combined with the characteristics of the four-year cycle and decreasing volatility of Bitcoin in each cycle.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin could fall to around $40,000 in the next six months. He has hedged downside risk through options structures but still states he is a long-term net long Bitcoin holder. Therefore, $40,000 represents his medium-term risk assessment, not a long-term bearish target.

KOL WolfyXBT stated they are still waiting for Bitcoin at $35,000, representing a more bearish outlook on this drawdown among some traders.

According to Biteye's compilation, crypto investor Tony Ling predicts Bitcoin could enter the $30,000 – $40,000 range in the fourth quarter of 2026, and believes the market could subsequently be affected by a prolonged Nasdaq bear market and the bursting of the AI bubble. As his original full post has not been found, this view should retain the source attribution "according to Biteye's compilation."

Technical analyst Tony Severino maintains a long-term target of around $34,500, corresponding to a drawdown of about 72% from Bitcoin's all-time high. He predicts the cycle low could occur around October.

Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers the most bearish judgment. He believes that if Bitcoin fails to reclaim $75,000, the price could still fall to $10,000 in extreme scenarios. It is crucial to emphasize that this is McGlone's personal analytical view, not an official Bloomberg institutional forecast, and does not represent mainstream market expectations.

No Unified Consensus Formed Around $44,000 – $46,000

Synthesizing all viewpoints, it is currently not possible to conclude that "institutions generally believe this cycle's bottom is at $44,000 – $46,000."

Standard Chartered believes $59,000 may have already constituted the cycle bottom. Key zones from CryptoQuant, NYDIG, Citi, and 10x Research are mainly concentrated around $50,000 – $55,000. Galaxy Research, Bitfinex, and Arthur Hayes place the deeper risk range at $40,000 – $46,000. Predictions below $30,000 – $40,000 are mostly based on assumptions of a deep bear market, macroeconomic recession, or continued technical deterioration.

The core of the prediction divergence lies not only in the different models used by the parties but also in their differing assumptions about the future macroeconomic environment. Whether spot ETFs can resume inflows, whether digital asset treasury companies like Strategy continue to sell BTC, Fed policy and the US dollar trend, and whether investor funds continue to rotate towards AI assets, all could influence the final bottom.

Therefore, $40,000 – $46,000 can be viewed as a closely watched secondary support level and a baseline bottom range for some institutions, but it cannot be described as a unified consensus already formed in the market.