世界杯開賽，盤點預測市場上那些「爆賺」和「虧慘」

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010 )

The World Cup officially kicks off, ushering in an exponential growth opportunity for prediction market trading volume.

According to a report from asset management giant Bernstein, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to generate up to $10 billion in consumer transaction volume for sports betting and prediction markets, along with over $3 billion in incremental capital. Previously, various prediction markets and exchanges have launched incentive campaigns, aiming to capture attention and trading volume. As the group stage unfolds, major upsets, underdog draws, and dark horse surges have ensued, bringing both "get-rich moments" and "massive losses" to players in the prediction market. (Recommended reading: "World Cup Prediction Battle Begins: How Are Major Exchanges Vying for This Wave of Event Traffic?", "The Second Venue of the World Cup: Inside the Prediction Market.")

Odaily Planet Daily reminds readers that sports event predictions are highly susceptible to upsets, and following trades requires caution.

World Cup Profitable Representative Accounts: 4 Wins Out of 4, New Account Earns Nearly $10 Million

First, let's look at the profit list, where some newly created wallets have netted nearly $10 million in profits on their first trades. While this raises questions about possible inside information, one can't help but marvel: "A football is round; on the World Cup stage, anything can happen."

Contestant #1: 4 Wins Out of 4, Single-Day Profit of $9.24 Million

Yesterday, a smart money account (@mintblade) secured $9.24 million in profit within a single day through World Cup predictions, winning all 4 predictions for a 100% win rate. In the match between Iran and New Zealand, this participant invested $7.03 million predicting "Iran will not win," netting $7.34 million from that single prediction. Notably, this user ranks first on Polymarket's weekly and monthly profit leaderboards.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@mintblade

Contestant #2: First Bet Nets $9.06 Million Profit, Biggest Winner from Spain's Upset Draw

In the early hours of the 16th, the match between Spain and Cape Verde ended in an unexpected draw. A new wallet (@Fishalive) spent $4.22 million on Polymarket predicting "Spain will not win" and "Cape Verde wins with a -2.5 handicap," resulting in the $4.22 million growing to $13.28 million, a profit of $9.06 million.

Notably, they purchased approximately 4.7 million shares of "Spain Will Not Win" at an average price of 9 cents, which settled at 100 cents after the match, netting approximately $4.31 million in profit from that single trade, a return of over 1000%. This user ranks second on Polymarket's weekly and monthly profit leaderboards with a profit of $9.06 million.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@fishalive

Contestant #3: 2 Trades, Profit of $5.2 Million

On the 15th, Polymarket user @LEEEROYJENKINS invested a total of $4.73 million, predicting "Turkey will not win" and "Australia +1.5 handicap." Both predictions were successful, resulting in a profit of $5.2 million. This user achieved a 128% profit margin on a single trade.

Despite a single-trade high of $4.8 million in profit, their overall trading still shows a loss of nearly $2.58 million.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/0x99aea8f9a64d0142b6b66a4b9d02a2211d45386f

Contestant #4: 3rd Place on Polymarket Profit Leaderboard, Over $7.85 Million in Weekly Profit

Polymarket user @endlessFate has made $4.7 million in profit over the past week. Previously, in the match between Saudi Arabia and Uruguay, they wagered $2.48 million predicting a "draw," "Uruguay will not win," and "Saudi Arabia +1.5 handicap," ultimately earning a $5.67 million profit. In the "Australia vs. Turkey" match, they predicted "Australia +1.5 handicap."

In the ongoing "Colombia vs. Uzbekistan" match, they invested nearly $7.5 million predicting "Colombia wins," currently earning over $2.05 million in profit. Currently, they rank 3rd on Polymarket's weekly profit leaderboard with over $7.85 million in profit. Notably, this user started predicting on Polymarket in April of this year, with an overall profit exceeding $6 million, after multiple previous losing predictions.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@endlessfate

Current "Colombia vs. Uzbekistan" prediction

Account profit/loss performance over the past week

For more weekly profit accounts, details can be found on the official leaderboard: https://polymarket.com/zh/leaderboard/overall/weekly/profit.

World Cup Representative Losing Accounts: Upset Causes $1 Million Loss, Betting Against Argentina Results in Over $1.8 Million Loss

In the prediction market, for every winner, there is a loser; the counterparty always exists, just in a different form.

Spain vs. Cape Verde: 0-0 Draw Leads to $1 Million Loss for Single Account

Polymarket data shows that account @betoor619 (address: 0x70088c990ffae782c699b9250f5aa6cbe4e3c666) bet on Spain to win in the World Cup group stage match against Cape Verde. The match ended in a 0-0 draw, resulting in a loss of $999,000 for this user.

Notably, this user entered the trade when the probability was at 92 cents, risking a $1 million principal for a potential $8,500 profit. What seemed like a sure win ultimately turned into a loss due to an upset, thanks to Cape Verde's 40-year-old goalkeeper's 7 stunning saves and their incredibly strong defense.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@betoor619?tab=activity

Lost the watermelon, didn't even pick up the sesame seeds

Messi Scores Hat-Trick, Argentina Defeats Algeria, Single Loss Exceeds $1.8 Million

On the 17th, before the World Cup match between Argentina and Algeria, prediction market whale weatherman12 invested $1.81 million predicting "Argentina will not win & Algeria +1.5 handicap." If Argentina had drawn or lost, their two bets would have yielded a profit of $2.65 million.

However, Argentina ultimately defeated Algeria thanks to a hat-trick of 3 goals by Messi, ending the match with a score of 3-0. As a result, the user's entire investment was lost.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@weatherman12

Odaily Planet Daily will continue to monitor World Cup-related predictions on prediction market platforms. Welcome to join the Odaily Prophet Channel.