八維研究院原創，轉載請註明出處

part5:我們是在1994年嗎？下一步該怎麼辦？

互聯網與區塊鏈革命之：

part1:早期的成功產品

part2:顛覆性公司的起源

part3:早期的挑戰

part4:新概念，估值和時機

part5:我們是在1994年嗎？下一步該怎麼辦？

本文是整個系列的第三部分：

二級標題

二級標題：

2017年CryptoKitties發布後的擁堵的以太坊交易

儘管目前的互聯網連接速度很快，但在早期階段，互聯網的可擴展性不高，成本卻很高昂。 1996年8月7日， AOL（美國在線） 的互聯網服務因承載不了互聯網用戶數而崩潰，並且過了19個小時都沒有修復。在那時，每天都有越來越多的美國人開始上網，而AOL是最大的互聯網服務提供商，其他的競爭對手包括Prodigy，CompuServe和MSN 等。互聯網本身並沒有崩潰，但訪問它的能力暫時支撐不住了，對於許多已經開始在生活中依賴網絡的人們來說，這是一個大問題。

二級標題

二級標題

二級標題

二級標題

不同項目的交易速度

二級標題

二級標題

1999 - 2010年啟動創業公司的成本降低 

此外，我們預計啟動區塊鏈初創公司的成本也會隨著時間的推移而降低。在互聯網革命期間，創辦一家初創公司的平均成本從1999年的500萬美元大幅下降到2005年的50萬美元，再到2010年的5萬美元。

第一波成本降低的原因是由於開源Open Source （這意味著不再需要UNIX，Web服務器和Oracle數據庫的許可證）和並行計算Parallel Computing（這意味著不需要購買昂貴的Sun服務器和EMC存儲） 。然後，第二波成本下降是由於雲計算Cloud Computing的成熟，由AWS推廣開來，雲計算提供了網絡存儲（S3），處理能力（EC2）和根據雲上的流量進行自動擴展或縮放的能力。

根據Gartner的說法，部署一個概念驗證的企業級區塊鏈的起始成本為275,000美元，最高可達數百萬美元。而在公有區塊鏈（如以太坊，Neo，EOS等）上搭建簡單DAPPs的部署和交易費用可能會花費$30-85k，而且目前的區塊鏈人才短缺，人力成本也要花費很多錢。

教育：

教育：

曾經，全世界50％的CD都有AOL標誌

教育是新技術被應用和接納，降低進入門檻，幫助“跨越鴻溝”（Geoffrey Moore創造的一個術語）的重要推動力。在認知鴻溝未被跨越之前，技術通常被視為一個異類，一旦真正跨越鴻溝，人們就會認為它是一種安全的消費品。

二級標題

二級標題

從Coinbase學習並獲取0x程序

為了推動加密世界的發展，我們已經看到了許多關於教育下一代加密技術和區塊鏈技術用戶的舉措，其中包括由德勤或IBM 舉辦的大型會議，如Consensus共識大會，企業教育， ConSensys Academy 等開發人員教育和大學教育，如ConSensys Academy區塊鏈教育網絡。

後記

後記

後記

馬克吐溫曾經說過“歷史不會重演，但它確實會押韻”。我們試圖在互聯網和區塊鏈革命之間勾勒出一些相似之處，以幫助公眾更好地了解技術的生命週期。請留下您的想法和評論，希望本系列文章將為行業提供一些有價值的觀點。

資料來源：

互聯網vs區塊鏈革命》系列之二：顛覆性公司的起源

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reply-unending-chasm-how-survive-geoffrey-moore/

https://www.coinbase.com/earn/0x

https://bothsidesofthetable.com/why-has-seed-investing-declined-and-what-does-this-mean-for-the-future-6a9572357130

https://bothsidesofthetable.com/a-deep-dive-into-what-has-really-changed-in-venture-capital-f5d225f7f8

https://howmuch.net/articles/crypto-transaction-speeds-compared

https://ylv.io/how-much-does-it-costs-to-run-dapp-in-2018/

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/ethereum-transactionfees.html

八維研究院出品的其他研究

Internet vs BlockchainRevolution: Challenges in the Early Days (Part 3) 

This article is part of the Internet vs Blockchain Revolution Series. If you areinterested in reading the other articles.

In the early stage of emergent technologies, there are often challenges around scalability, cost,and education, limiting the development of breakthrough applications and massadoption. However, these challenges are generally solved over time as we havewitnessed with the evolution of the Internet and we should expect a similar technological progression in Blockchain.

Scalability and Cost:

Pending Ethereum Transactionsafter CryptoKitties’ Release in 2017

Despite today’s fast Internet connection, the early days of the Internet faced challenges in terms of scalability and cost. On August 7, 1996, AOL’s Internet service failed from supporting a high volume of Internet users and went down for nineteen hours. At that point, Americans were increasingly living their online lives every day, and AOL was the country’s largest internet service provider, amongother competitors such as Prodigy, CompuServe and MSN. The Internet itself hasn’t crashed but the ability to access it temporarily stopped, and it was a big deal for many who started to get used to surfing the web in their daily life. This is similar to what happened in theblockchain world in December 2017, in which the of CryptoKitties spiked the on-chain transaction volume on Ethereum and clogged the network. Most users couldn’t get their transactions through on the blockchain unless they were willing to bid a high amount of gas fees, which caused a lot of confusion and distress in the community. While the Ethereum network jam made many of us realize the current lack of scalability of blockchain technology in servicing more complex use cases, both of these failures in scalability during the early days of Internet and Blockchain showed a validation of how important these technologies had become in a few years for the early adopters and the need for better scalability solutions to support the growing user base and demand.

Average Internet and WirelessMobile Telecommunication Speed in the US 

The high network fees and costs for launching a startup during the early days of the Internet and the current state of the Blockchain industry is also similar. Back then,the process of getting online required a modem and a phone line, in which all the online services maintained a network of local modems for people to dial in.The most popular online service at the time, AOL, charged $9.95/month for 5 hours of unlimited access with each additional hour costing $2.95, which by today’s standard, was very restricting.However over time, the broadband connections with DSL eventually came, scaling up the Internet speed, and by 2014,the Internet speed was 200 times faster and 90% cheaper compared to 1999. Similarly, we have also witnessed an increase of wireless mobile telecommunication speed over the years, from less than 1Mbps with 2G technology to 25Mbps with 4G technology, enabling new services to be viable and practical through the mobile phone, such as music and video streaming. Over time, the limitations around the scalability and cost were gradually removed, allowing for more complex and bandwidth-intensive applications to be practical and viable.

Transaction Speed of Various Blockchain Projects

 In the blockchain world, we are still early in the development cycle of the technology, in which the challenges around scalability and cost are preventing the practicality of more complex use cases and large user base. Low scalability means that the developers or users would have to pay higher fees to outbid the other transactions in the queue to reduce wait time. As of February 2019, the average transactions fees are roughly $0.13 for Ethereum, in which more complex dapps, such as on-chain games, would quickly rack up high transaction fees. Although not every action needs to live on-chain, there is still an urgent demand for blockchain to be scalable to support the growing number of dapps, and all the day to day transactions (Visa processes 24,000 transactions per second) living on the sameledger. Numerous projects are working on different means to scale the transaction speed of blockchain, with variable trade-offs between scalability,security, and decentralization. With the recent mainnet launches of EOS andTRON (4,000 and 750 TPS respectively), we have seen an increase of more complexdapps being released in the past couple months, and we expect this trend tocontinue as more scalable blockchains are being deployed in the space. Overall,the different scaling solutions being explored such as novel data structures(Sharding, Tangle, DAG, Coda etc.), layer 2 solutions (Sidechains, off-chains,hashed-time locks etc.), and more efficient consensus algorithms (POS, DPOS,Casper, Avalanche, Hashgraph etc.) will gradually increase the bandwidth and reduce the cost for transactions on the blockchain, enabling new use cases andservices over the years.

The decrease of the cost of launching a Startup from1999-2010

 Additionally, we expect that the cost of launching blockchain startups will also decrease overtime. During the Internet revolution, the average cost of starting a startupalso drastically reduced over the years, from $5m in 1999 to $500k in 2005, and$50k in 2010. The first wave of cost reduction was due to the appearance of open source (which meant no license for UNIX, web servers and Oracle databases) and horizontal computing (which meant no need to buy expensive Sun servers & EMCstorage). Then, the second wave of cost decrease was due to the maturation of cloud computing, popularized by AWS,providing web storage (S3), processing power (EC2) and the ability to scale upor down depending on traffic (auto-scaling) on the cloud. According to Gartner,deploying enterprise blockchain proof-of-concepts has a starting cost of$275,000 and can go up to several millions of dollars. Depending on theblockchain (Ethereum, Neo, EOS, etc), the deployment and transaction fees of simple dapps on public blockchains can cost you $30-85k (interesting breakdown here), and current blockchain talents are in shortage and expensive ($150k on average).Similar to the evolution of the Internet, we also expect a cost reduction inlaunching blockchain projects as the blockchain transaction speed becomes morescalable and cheaper, more full-stack platforms on the enterprise side (BaaShosting - Kaleido, AWS, Azure, Oracle, etc), development platform (NoOps -Esprezzo), middlewares (Omnitude) and developer tools (Mist, Geth, Remix, etc)are being released, and more talents migrating into the blockchain space.

Education:

At one point, 50% of the CD's produced worldwide had an AOL logo on it 

Education is an essential driver for the adoption of new technologies, lowering the barrier to entry, and helping "crossing the chasm" (a term created by Geoffrey Moore). Before the chasm,technology is usually treated as a foreign object, and once it has trulycrossed, it is perceived as safe to consume. During the early days of the Internet, Jan Brandt from AOL was hired as VP of marketing to growits user base. During market research, she realized that people didn’t know howto use the computer as “someone took a computer mouse and started pointing it at the computer like the remote control”, so it was important to go back to the basics. Selling consumers on the virtue of one online service over another wasnot as important as educating consumers on what an online service was. The marketing strategy implemented by AOLwas to send out trial disks and CDs for people to try out, and the resultsproved to be extraordinary, with people signing up and providing their creditcards. AOL re-invested so much into the strategy that CDs were found everywhere, in people’s mailboxes, on new computers, in magazines, given away with movie rentals, etc. so that at one point, 50% of the CDs produced worldwide had the AOL logo, leap frogging the competitors and growing its user basefrom 200k to 25M clients over the years. Overall, AOL’s campaign is a good example of a successful initiative indriving adoption by actively lowering the barrier of entry for the less tech-savvy crowd of early users.

Learn and Earn 0x program fromCoinbase

To draw a parallel with the cryptocurrency world, we have seen many initiatives in educating the next generation of crypto and blockchain adopters, with large conferences, suchas Consensus, corporate education,taken by Deloitte or IBM, developer education, such as ConSensys Academy, and universityeducation, such as Blockchain EducationNetwork. Many companies are also attempting to in give out tokens or cold wallets for free through events and marketing campaigns. Recently, Coinbase launched a learn and earn crypto program,offering cryptocurrency rewards for completing their educational courses.Currently, interacting with blockchain still has a lot of frictions, and require you to have some foundation knowledge (private/public keys,gas/transaction fees etc.) compared to traditional payment solutions such as Venmo, or Paypal, not to mention the irreversible risks that come with keymanagement and transactions. We are still early in the industry with less than 1% of worldwide adoption, and educating the general population about cryptocurrency, blockchain and key management will be very important for the industry to grow. Large companies such as AOL and Coinbase are well positioned to offer extra incentives through giveaway CD trials and cryptocurrencies to actively help lower the barrier of entry and drive further adoption.

Overall, it’s undeniable that the Blockchain industry has been making significant progress towards solving the challenges around scalability, cost, and education over the past few years. Although we are still early in this technological cycle, we are confident that Blockchain will mature in a similar fashion as the Internet,gradually becoming more scalable, affordable and practical for mass adoption.

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The Internet Revolution facts are based on thebook “How the Internet Happened”,written by Brian McCullough. MarkTwain once said “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme”. We areattempting to draw some similarities between the Internet and BlockchainRevolutions, to help entrepreneurs and investors better understandtechnological life cycles.

Sources:

Book “Howthe Internet Happened”, written by BrianMcCullough.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reply-unending-chasm-how-survive-geoffrey-moore/

https://www.coinbase.com/earn/0x

https://bothsidesofthetable.com/why-has-seed-investing-declined-and-what-does-this-mean-for-the-future-6a9572357130

https://bothsidesofthetable.com/a-deep-dive-into-what-has-really-changed-in-venture-capital-f5d225f7f8

https://howmuch.net/articles/crypto-transaction-speeds-compared

https://ylv.io/how-much-does-it-costs-to-run-dapp-in-2018/

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/ethereum-transactionfees.html

互聯網vs區塊鏈革命》系列之二：顛覆性公司的起源

《互聯網vs區塊鏈革命》系列之一：早期的成功產品

《互聯網vs區塊鏈革命》系列之二：顛覆性公司的起源

硬核技術：證券型通證需要專屬的區塊鏈嗎?

企業級區塊鏈：過去、現在和未來

Medium:https://medium.com/@8DecimalCapital

八維資本（8 Decimal Capital）是一家跨境的國際專業區塊鏈投資機構，管理美元和Token兩支基金，總資金規模超過六千萬美金。團隊合夥人來自一線VC、PE，基金顧問包括前瑞士銀行中國區CEO陳慶，前紅杉中國創始人合夥人張帆。八維專注於區塊鏈賽道投資，同時對上下游產業資源進行戰略佈局。八維投資了底層技術、隱私、存儲、Security Token、穩定幣等賽道的頂尖項目，如EOS、Icon、IoTeX、Zilliqa、Bluzelle、IRIS Network等，同時佈局了交易所、媒體、諮詢、技術社區等戰略協同資源，如0x、Fcoin、Kyber、Bibox、Mobilecoin、Dorahacks、、幣世界、WXY等。在美國Token Metrics榜單中，八維投資回報位列50家國際基金的前三位，也被36氪、清華x-lab等機構評為中國Top10區塊鏈投資機構。