PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a market for "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire." Currently, the probability for July 18 stands at 5%; for July 24, 15%; for July 31, 23%; for August 14, 43%; and for August 31, 54%.
The settlement rules for this event are as follows: If the US takes no military action against Iran between the market creation date and 11:59 PM on the specified end date, the market will settle as "Yes." Otherwise, it will settle as "No." The first day of this 14-day period will be the calendar date (Eastern Time) of the most recent qualifying military action. This period lasts until 12:00 PM ET on the 14th day. If the most recent qualifying military action within this period occurs on or before the specified end date, the market will be deemed "Yes."
A so-called "qualifying military action" refers to an airstrike or surface-to-surface missile strike initiated directly by the US against Iran. Airstrikes may include the use of bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and aerial drones. Surface-to-surface missile strikes include one-way attack drones as well as cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and other surface-to-surface missiles.
Qualifying military actions also include munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; surface-to-air missile strikes; small arms fire; ground invasions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery fire; howitzers, cannons, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g., multiple launch rocket systems); small-scale surface-to-surface strikes, including short-range cruise missiles, close air support drone strikes, and anti-tank missile attacks; as well as any threats, authorizations, or declarations of force that have not yet resulted in action.
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Odaily星球日報訊 Bitget 推出跨資產統一帳戶（UTA），目前已將包括 100 種美股代幣（rToken）在內的 370 多種資產納入統一保證金池。在此機制下，用戶持有的美股代幣（rToken）不僅可持股並獲取股息，還能作為保證金及抵押借貸，進一步提升資金使用效率。
首批納入保證金體系的美股代幣涵蓋蘋果（rAAPL）、輝達（rNVDA）、特斯拉（rTSLA）等 100 檔主流標的，按資產分檔設置折扣率，最高可達 95%。隨著產品迭代，Bitget 將持續擴充可作為保證金及支援槓桿交易的資產列表，進一步打通傳統金融資產與加密交易場景之間的流動性壁壘。
Odaily星球日報訊 根據 MSX.COM 數據，美股盤前，SK 海力士 ADR(SKHY.O)跌超 6%、閃迪(SNDK.O)和西部數據(WDC.O)跌超 4%。
Odaily星球日報訊 據官方公告，BitMart 合約將於 2026 年 7 月 16 日 19:00（UTC+8）上線 TZAUSDT 永續合約，支援最高 25 倍槓桿。
The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitors that in the Polymarket event "Will Argentina win the 2026 World Cup?", a smart money address (0x701187150980c2421bc3c87a74dbdef31d75c6da) with a winning rate of over 72% purchased over $90,000 worth of shares betting that Argentina will not win the 2026 World Cup, at an average entry price of 58.1 cents.
Spain defeated Portugal 1-0 in the knockout stage, followed by a 2-1 victory over Belgium, and eliminated France 2-0 in the semi-finals. Argentina beat Egypt 3-2 and Switzerland 3-1, and in the semi-finals, overtook England with two late goals to win 2-1. The two teams will now face each other in the World Cup final to compete for the championship.
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Odaily News: Korea will strengthen margin requirements for single-stock leveraged trading, raising the minimum margin from 10 million won to 30 million won, and only accepting cash as margin. (Yonhap News Agency)
Odaily星球日报讯 美国参议院以一致同意方式通过一项不具约束力的决议，明确表示 FTX 创始人 Sam Bankman-Fried 在任何情况下都不应获得总统赦免或减刑。
该决议由参议员 Cynthia Lummis 和 Ruben Gallego 推动。SBF 于 2023 年 11 月因与 FTX 倒闭相关的 7 项罪名被判有罪，目前预计最早于 2044 年左右获释。美国总统特朗普今年 1 月曾表示，没有赦免 SBF 的计划。（CoinDesk）
PPP 预测市場工具監測顯示，Polymarket 上「鄧煜獲得 2026 年菲爾茲獎」「王虹獲得 2026 年菲爾茲獎」「約翰·帕登獲得 2026 年菲爾茲獎」及「雅各布·奇梅爾曼獲得 2026 年菲爾茲獎」四項事件概率過去一週大幅上漲，目前均達到 98% 以上。
2026 年國際數學家大會將於 7 月 23 日在美國費城召開，屆時將公佈包括菲爾茲獎在內的多個獎項。近日有網民稱，通過分析 ICM 2026 官網日程表前端代碼發現上述四人可能為獲獎者，但相關名單尚未獲得官方確認。若鄧煜和王虹最終獲獎，將成為首次有中國籍數學家獲得菲爾茲獎。
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