Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Rebound Depends on Macro Improvement, Institutional Demand Returns but Upside Limited

Odaily News, Bitfinex's latest report indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) buying pressure is returning, but the current rebound remains primarily dependent on improvements in the macroeconomic environment rather than crypto-market-specific catalysts. While institutional demand continues to strengthen, weaker U.S. employment data has reduced the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September, yet corporate treasury selling and persistently high long-term Treasury yields continue to cap Bitcoin's upside.

The report shows that, driven by easing geopolitical tensions, falling oil prices, and a cooling U.S. labor market, risk assets have broadly rebounded, with Bitcoin price approaching the upper end of the $62,000–$65,000 range. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for five consecutive trading days, attracting approximately $865.3 million in total inflows, corresponding to the absorption of roughly 13,300 BTC, while new supply added to the Bitcoin network over the same period was only about 3,150 BTC.

However, Bitfinex noted that last week Strategy sold 1,638 BTC, and on-chain data shows that approximately 1.79 million BTC have a cost basis concentrated in the $62,000–$65,000 range, still creating significant overhead supply pressure—a key reason why Bitcoin's price reaction has been relatively muted. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETF inflows continue their trend, indicating that institutional capital is returning to the crypto market, but with a more concentrated and cautious investment preference.

On the macro front, U.S. July non-farm payroll data showed slowing job growth, and prior months' figures were revised downward, indicating a cooling labor market. Although the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, this was mainly due to a decline in labor force participation rather than a clear improvement in the job market. Bitfinex believes that low layoff levels and declining initial jobless claims suggest the U.S. labor market remains in a "cooling, not recessionary" phase, but slowing wage growth, falling labor force participation, and a narrower hiring scope all reflect weakening labor market momentum.

The market has now lowered its expectations for a Fed rate hike in September to 43.9%, pushing short-term Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar lower, while supporting gains in equities and crypto assets. However, long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 30-year yield holding above 5.2%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns over inflationary pressures and government debt expansion.

Bitfinex noted that if the Fed holds rates steady in September, it is more likely to represent a wait-and-see policy stance rather than the start of a rate-cutting cycle. The current macro environment continues to provide support for Bitcoin, but a sustained breakout to the upside would require ETF inflows to consistently outpace market selling pressure, alongside further easing of inflation data to push long-term yields lower. Until both conditions emerge, Bitcoin will likely continue to trade within a range.