Analyst: ChangXin’s Stock Price Surges on Debut, But Still Faces Challenges in Changing Global DRAM Landscape

Odaily Planet Daily News: Milk Road AI analyst posted on X analyzing the surge in ChangXin Technology's stock price. The analyst stated that in less than the past year, ChangXin Memory's global DRAM market share increased from less than 4% to approximately 7.7%-8%, with first-quarter revenue this year surging 719% year-on-year to 50.8 billion RMB. This growth is mainly driven by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron shifting more production capacity towards AI server memory (especially HBM), creating a supply gap in the traditional DDR5 and LPDDR5 markets, which ChangXin Memory has leveraged to fill the demand for mid-to-low-end DRAM.

However, ChangXin Memory's current production capacity is far from sufficient to meet global demand. Its current monthly wafer capacity is approximately 290,000 to 320,000 wafers, lower than Samsung's scale of about 630,000 wafers and SK Hynix's approximately 500,000 wafers. Furthermore, US export restrictions on advanced lithography equipment are also limiting the speed of ChangXin Memory's further expansion.

The analyst believes that ChangXin Memory will still find it difficult to enter the HBM market in the short term, and thus will not change the supply-demand dynamics of AI storage. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will continue to maintain their advantages in high-margin products such as HBM, server DRAM, and LPDDR5X, and the global memory shortage cycle may persist.