Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis falls below long-term holders, triggering bear market end signal

Odaily Planet Daily News Analysis shared by blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant on July 18 shows that Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis has fallen below the adjusted long-term holder cost basis, triggering a "bear market end" signal. The signal uses a 3-day confirmation window to compare the average purchase prices of short-term and long-term holders. 

The analysis shows that short-term holders refer to investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 6 months, while long-term holders refer to investors who have held Bitcoin for more than 6 months. The short-term holder cost basis has dropped from $112,500 to $69,000, reflecting that Bitcoin purchased within the past 6 months has changed hands at lower prices. The analysis states that the adjusted long-term holder cost basis excludes Bitcoin held for more than 7 years to reduce the impact of dormant supply. The current crossover is described as a change in the holding structure, pointing to the later stages of a bear market, but it does not confirm a market bottom or the start of a new bull market. 

The analysis also indicates that if the short-term holder cost basis rises back above the adjusted long-term holder cost basis, it will be consistent with the bull market confirmation signals seen in previous cycles. Until then, the signal only suggests that the Bitcoin bear market may be nearing its end.