Analysis: Bitcoin Rebounds Above $61,000, Long-Term Holders Return but ETF Outflows Persist

Odaily reports that Bitcoin rebounded above $61,000 on Thursday, recovering from a 21-month low touched earlier this week, showing signs of repair after significant market volatility. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $296 million on July 1, continuing the capital outflow trend; this followed June's monthly outflows of about $4.5 billion, one of the worst months on record. Among them, the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF saw the largest single-day net inflow of $36.3 million.

On-chain data indicates that long-term holders, after a period of distribution, have re-entered an accumulation phase, with the buying power of addresses holding 100–1000 BTC expanding. Currently, approximately 10.83 million BTC are in an unrealized loss position, surpassing the 9.22 million BTC in profit. Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish pointed out that the strengthening of buy orders on the Coinbase order book and the stabilization of market makers' Gamma positions suggest that structural support is forming, but the derivatives market remains cautious. In the options market, the Put/Call ratio has risen to a one-year high, with implied volatility increasing and hedging demand strengthening. Meanwhile, Hyperliquid long leverage exposure has risen to a cyclical high, indicating diverging market sentiment.

In terms of price structure, after briefly falling below $58,000, Bitcoin repeatedly tested support levels and currently remains below the key Gamma Flip range of approximately $68,000; the realized price of around $53,000 is seen as an important structural support level. On the macroeconomic front, U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, leading the market to postpone expectations for an interest rate cut path. The overall crypto market remains in a phase of capital rotation and structural competition. (The Block)