Reconstructing the Timeline of STRC Falling Below $100: Strategy's Bitcoin Capital Model Faces a Stress Test

Odaily Planet Daily News The dividend-paying preferred stock STRC, issued by Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR), recently fell below its $100 par value, drawing market attention to its high-yield dividend model, cash reserves, and Bitcoin asset strategy. Originally designed as a high-yield, low-volatility preferred stock pegged to a $100 par value, STRC attracted investors through continuous dividends and helped Strategy finance dividend payments via ATM (at-the-market) offerings. However, the recent decline in Bitcoin's price, combined with a series of the company's capital maneuvers, has caused STRC's price to deviate significantly from its target level. The timeline of this decline event is as follows:

May 14: STRC closed at $100 before its ex-dividend date, with Bitcoin's price still above $80,000. However, market pressure was already emerging. The competing product SATA announced the adoption of a daily dividend mechanism, offering a 13% yield, increasing competitive pressure on STRC.

May 15: Strategy announced a ~8% discounted repurchase of $1.5 billion worth of its 2029 convertible bonds. The market subsequently noted that the dollar reserves the company had previously set aside to support dividend and debt payments were used for this transaction.

May 26: Strategy confirmed that its cash reserves participated in the bond repurchase, reducing the relevant funds to approximately $871 million. This is equivalent to roughly six months of STRC dividend coverage, whereas the company's previous target was to maintain approximately 24 months of coverage.

June 1: Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time since 2022, selling 32 BTC to demonstrate its ability to support dividends through asset sales. Following the announcement, MSTR's stock price fell by 5.9%.

June 5: Bitcoin fell below $60,000, and STRC dropped to around $90, closing at $93.4.

June 8: Strategy shareholders approved a change in the frequency of STRC dividend distributions, shifting from once a month to twice a month. The company also stated that its dollar reserves had rebounded to $1 billion.

June 15: Strategy purchased an additional 1,587 BTC, raising its dollar reserves to $1.1 billion.

June 18: STRC fell below $83 intraday, approximately 17% lower than the $100 target price, marking a new low since its listing in July 2025. It eventually closed at $88.59.

Currently, Strategy holds approximately 846,842 BTC with an average cost of about $75,656. Based on Bitcoin's price of approximately $62,500, the company has an unrealized book loss of roughly $11.14 billion.

Concurrently, the market is also beginning to focus on the potential dilution pressure arising from Strategy's recent financing activities. MSTR's current price is around $112, down approximately 80% from its all-time high in November 2024.

Analysts believe that the core challenge facing STRC lies in the high degree of linkage between its financial structure and Bitcoin's price: when BTC enters a correction cycle, the market reassesses not only Bitcoin itself but also the preferred stocks, debt, and financing systems built around it. (CoinDesk)

The current focus of the market is whether STRC can return to its $100 par value, and whether Strategy's Bitcoin capital model can be sustained.